National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located near the Abacos.

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located just south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has become
better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development during the next several
days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the
week while the system moves generally northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple
of days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another broad area of low pressure is located over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance is producing limited and
disorganized shower activity. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly
westward across the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly northward
or north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 09:00:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 09:25:00 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010859 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Dorian continues to exhibit a well-defined eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops on satellite images. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft from several hours ago indicated that the intensity was still near 130 kt, and since the cloud pattern remains very impressive, it is assumed that Dorian has at least maintained that strength through the present time. The hurricane will remain in a fairly low-shear environment for the next few days, however since it is forecast to move quite slowly over the shallow waters of the northwesternnmost Bahamas through Monday, this would likely result in less available oceanic heat content. Therefore, a very slow weakening is anticipated to commence after 12 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the numerical guidance suite. The hurricane continues moving westward, or about 280/7 kt. A high pressure ridge to the north of Dorian should maintain this westward movement through today. By tonight, the global models show the ridge weakening, and this evolution should result in a slowing of the forward speed, with the hurricane becoming nearly stationary around 48 hours. In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next couple of days, and is the southwesternmost model through 48 hours. As a result, the official track forecast has been shifted a little west during that time frame. In 2 to 4 days, Dorian should turn northward in response to a trough over the eastern United States. By the end of the period, the flow on the south side of the trough should cause the cyclone to move northeastward near the Carolinas. The westward shift of the NHC track within the first 48 hours necessitates the change from a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida east coast. Although the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a distinct possibility. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of producing life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for these areas. 2. A tropical storm warning is now in effect for a portion of the Florida east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the middle part of this week. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are possible over coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 26.4N 76.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 26.9N 78.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 28.9N 79.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 31.8N 79.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 010852 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 42(50) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 41(56) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 40(56) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 33(48) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 30(48) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 28(62) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 26(36) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 12(34) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 7(26) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 26(53) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) 23(64) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 19(57) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 12(56) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 5(23) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 39(47) 6(53) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 39(48) 3(51) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20(25) 32(57) 1(58) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 23(35) 1(36) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 37(47) 31(78) X(78) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 27(39) 1(40) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 20(26) 28(54) 1(55) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 17(24) 15(39) X(39) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 43(59) 15(74) X(74) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 21(23) 12(35) X(35) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 26(38) 11(49) 1(50) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 16(26) 35(61) 7(68) 1(69) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 19(24) 5(29) X(29) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 9(11) 39(50) 21(71) 23(94) 1(95) X(95) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 41(63) 5(68) X(68) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 31(38) 3(41) X(41) PATRICK AFB 34 1 4( 5) 22(27) 21(48) 37(85) 3(88) X(88) PATRICK AFB 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 35(48) 4(52) X(52) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 2(23) X(23) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 31(33) 43(76) 12(88) 10(98) X(98) X(98) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 2( 2) 24(26) 23(49) 29(78) 2(80) X(80) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 29(52) 1(53) X(53) W PALM BEACH 34 2 46(48) 34(82) 10(92) 5(97) 1(98) X(98) W PALM BEACH 50 1 5( 6) 31(37) 18(55) 17(72) 1(73) X(73) W PALM BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) 19(47) X(47) X(47) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 31(33) 36(69) 15(84) 7(91) 1(92) X(92) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 4( 4) 16(20) 15(35) 12(47) X(47) X(47) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) MIAMI FL 34 1 6( 7) 21(28) 17(45) 11(56) 2(58) X(58) MIAMI FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 4( 5) 12(17) 15(32) 11(43) 1(44) X(44) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) NAPLES FL 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 14(29) 2(31) X(31) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 16(33) 3(36) X(36) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 13(24) 4(28) X(28) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 16(27) 6(33) X(33) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 19(28) 9(37) 1(38) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 54 45(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 3 78(81) 14(95) 1(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) GRAND BAHAMA 64 1 50(51) 25(76) 5(81) 6(87) X(87) X(87) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 21 34(55) 7(62) 6(68) 4(72) X(72) X(72) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 7(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) ANDROS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010851 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 76.0W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 76.0W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 75.6W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.1W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.9N 78.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.9N 79.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 31.8N 79.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 76.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010851 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LATER TODAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 76.0W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 76.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should occur for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today and tonight, and should move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas later today, with tropical storm winds beginning within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LATER TODAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Dorian was located near 26.4, -76.0 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 934 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010540
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located about 100 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas.

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure area is located
about 150 miles south the Cabo Verde Islands. Although this
disturbance continues to produce disorganized thunderstorms,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression could
form during the early or middle part of next week while the system
moves northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde
Islands during the next couple of days, and interests on those
islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves slowly westward across the southern and southwestern
Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 05:37:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 03:24:47 GMT

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010535 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 75.6W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 75.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should occur for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas later today, with tropical storm winds beginning within the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States from central Florida northward through the Carolinas...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Central Bahamas and South Florida...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Dorian was located near 26.3, -75.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 934 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 03:06:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 03:24:47 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010256 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Data from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian remains a very powerful hurricane, and the satellite presentation is still quite impressive with a very stable, well-defined eye. There has been no evidence of concentric eyewalls in aircraft or microwave data, which is somewhat surprising given that the intensity has been at category 4 strength for 24 hours. Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind reductions. Dorian is forecast to continue moving over very warm waters and into a low-shear environment during the next 12-24 hours, so some additional strengthening is possible. Difficult-to-predict eyewall cycles, however, are likely to begin at some point within the next day or so and could cause fluctuations in intensity. After 72 hours, increasing southerly shear is likely to produce gradual weakening, but Dorian is foreast to remain a dangerous hurricane through the forecast period. The hurricane is moving westward or 280/7 kt. A high pressure ridge to the north of Dorian is predicted to remain intact into early Sunday, and the hurricane should continue westward. By late Sunday, the dynamical models erode the western portion of the ridge, which should cause the hurricane to slow down and become nearly stationary over the northwestern Bahamas in 36 to 48 hours. After that time, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced, and Dorian is expected to turn northwestward, and eventually northeastward near the southeastern United States coast. Although there is general agreement on this overall scenario, there is still considerable spread on how close the storm will track to the east coast of Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States. The latest HWRF run has shifted westward and takes Dorian across the coast of central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to that forecast was made. Although the exact NHC track forecast lies east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even a landfall remain a possibility. Since the updated track was slightly slower than the previous advisory, no additional watches are needed for Florida at this time. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Sunday through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for these areas. 2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the Florida east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States from Monday through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 26.3N 75.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 26.4N 76.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 31.1N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 010252 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 40(50) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 41(51) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 38(47) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 37(48) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 36(62) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 20(38) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 12(29) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 33(52) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 30(64) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 28(58) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 22(61) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 37(44) 15(59) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 7(25) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 39(47) 10(57) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 14(18) 45(63) 4(67) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 30(39) 3(42) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 31(39) 41(80) 3(83) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 34(42) 3(45) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 14(19) 41(60) 3(63) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 1(26) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 13(18) 27(45) 1(46) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 37(48) 26(74) 1(75) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 23(38) 1(39) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 20(28) 22(50) 1(51) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) X(15) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 33(48) 16(64) 1(65) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 14(16) 11(27) 1(28) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 4( 5) 24(29) 26(55) 31(86) 6(92) X(92) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 34(48) 12(60) X(60) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 21(25) 9(34) 1(35) PATRICK AFB 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 20(31) 38(69) 10(79) 1(80) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 27(35) 10(45) 1(46) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) X(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 7( 9) 43(52) 22(74) 18(92) 3(95) X(95) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 32(60) 4(64) 1(65) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 23(34) 4(38) X(38) W PALM BEACH 34 2 13(15) 45(60) 20(80) 11(91) 2(93) X(93) W PALM BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 20(34) 21(55) 2(57) X(57) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 16(28) 2(30) X(30) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 8(10) 39(49) 19(68) 14(82) 2(84) X(84) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 13(34) 2(36) X(36) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) MIAMI FL 34 1 3( 4) 12(16) 13(29) 14(43) 3(46) X(46) MIAMI FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) X(14) 1(15) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 12(32) 3(35) X(35) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 10(24) 3(27) X(27) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 6(15) 2(17) X(17) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) 6(25) X(25) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 13(21) 7(28) X(28) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 11(18) 7(25) 1(26) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 14(21) 10(31) 1(32) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 16(22) 20(42) 1(43) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 5 83(88) 10(98) 1(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 1 32(33) 45(78) 10(88) 6(94) X(94) X(94) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X 10(10) 40(50) 14(64) 11(75) X(75) X(75) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 10 54(64) 9(73) 6(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 1 7( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 2 6( 8) 7(15) 8(23) 9(32) 1(33) X(33) ANDROS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010252 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 75.1W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday. Data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning overnight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States from central Florida northward through the Carolinas...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Central Bahamas and South Florida...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 the center of Dorian was located near 26.3, -75.1 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010251 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 75.1W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 75.1W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 76.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 31.1N 80.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 75.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 312340 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REAFFIRM DORIAN'S CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 74.7W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 74.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REAFFIRM DORIAN'S CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 the center of Dorian was located near 26.2, -74.7 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2019 23:40:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2019 21:24:38 GMT