National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND DORIAN STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 66.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 66.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to strengthen into a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: The central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. The northern Bahamas and Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should gradually diminish tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND DORIAN STRENGTHENING... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28 the center of Dorian was located near 19.7, -66.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290238 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, new convection has developed around the center of Erin's circulation over the past couple of hours, giving it a little more time as a tropical cyclone. The current objective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is 30 kt, and so that will remain the initial intensity for this advisory. Westerly shear should prevent any intensification of Erin while it remains a tropical cyclone tonight. On Thursday, the cyclone should merge with a frontal system while it undergoes extratropical transition. Thereafter, the merged system could strengthen due to baroclinic processes. Erin has accelerated and is now moving at 025/18 kt. The cyclone is expected to move even faster to the northeast on Thursday and continue northeastward until it merges with another extratropical low by late Friday. The updated NHC track forecast is changed little from the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 35.6N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 38.0N 70.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/0000Z 42.4N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 47.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 290238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 ...ERIN HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 72.1W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 72.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday and then become absorbed by a larger low pressure system on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

...ERIN HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 the center of Erin was located near 35.6, -72.1 with movement NNE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290237 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 72.6W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 42.4N 66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 47.3N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 72.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290005 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 18A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 Corrected NNW to NNE of San Juan in summary section ...DORIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 65.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of Antigua has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the British Virgin Islands. The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to strengthen into a powerful hurricane during the next few days over the Atlantic waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Central and northwestern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should gradually diminish tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28 the center of Dorian was located near 19.2, -65.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2019 00:01:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 21:24:50 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282313
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located just northwest of the Virgin Islands. The National
Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical Depression
Erin, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282124 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 18...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 Corrected wording in discussion and outlook regarding motion ...DORIAN GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 65.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the apparent eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). On this track, Dorian should move away from the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several hours and then move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and become a powerful hurricane during the next few days over the Atlantic waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Eastern Puerto Rico, the the U.S. and British Virgin Islands...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Western Puerto Rico and the central and northwestern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, and could still occur over Vieques, Culebra, and the British Virgin Islands during the next several hours. These winds should subside tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

...DORIAN GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28 the center of Dorian was located near 18.8, -65.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 20:46:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 21:24:50 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 282044 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 The cloud pattern has become better organized with a hint of an eye on high resolution satellite imagery and plenty of convective bands. In addition, earlier data from a reconnaissance plane and surface observations from St. Thomas as Dorian moved by yield an initial intensity of 70 kt. Now that the hurricane has developed an inner core with a 15 to 20 n mi eye, strengthening is more likely. Given the favorable environment of warm waters and low shear prevailing in the western Atlantic, the NHC forecast calls for a marked intensification, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity in 72 hours, and keeps it at that intensity until landfall. This forecast is very close to the intensity consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance. Satellite and earlier reconnaissance plane fixes indicate that Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and this northwest motion should continue for the next 24 to 48 hours. However, after that time, all the global models continue to build a strong ridge over the western Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest toward Florida. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula. The new NHC track forecast is a little bit to the south of the previous one, given that global models have a stronger ridge to the north and the track models show more of a westward motion. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous winds will continue in the Virgin Islands, Culebra, Vieques, and portions of Puerto Rico during the next few hours. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding through Thursday morning. 2. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. 3. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this week and into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 18.8N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 20.1N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 22.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 23.8N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 25.2N 71.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 26.8N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 27.7N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 28.2N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 282044 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 25(47) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 27(41) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 35(52) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 33(65) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 39(63) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 37(71) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 31(44) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) 23(84) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 25(54) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 21(35) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 32(77) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 28(48) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 60(65) 20(85) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 21(56) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 18(35) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 53(58) 18(76) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 17(45) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 12(26) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 18(65) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 13(33) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 20(48) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 19(42) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 15(33) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 30(48) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 34(54) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 40(57) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 41(62) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 39(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 60(75) 7(82) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 8(50) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 6(33) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 27(49) 3(52) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) 3(29) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 6(22) 1(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 28(35) 5(40) 1(41) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282044 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 9...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 ...ERIN TURNS NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 72.7W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 72.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). The cyclone is expected to turn north-northeastward tonight and then accelerate north-northeastward through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours, and Erin is forecast to become post-tropical later tonight. The cyclone could strengthen slightly after becoming an extratropical low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...ERIN TURNS NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 the center of Erin was located near 34.5, -72.7 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282043 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 ...DORIAN GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 65.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the apparent eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). On this track, Dorian should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several hours and then move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and become a powerful hurricane during the next few days over the Atlantic waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Eastern Puerto Rico, the the U.S. and British Virgin Islands...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Western Puerto Rico and the central and northwestern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, and could still occur over Vieques, Culebra, and the British Virgin Islands during the next several hours. These winds should subside tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

...DORIAN GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28 the center of Dorian was located near 18.8, -65.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.