National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 the center of Six was located near 31.2, -71.2 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 271433 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 71.2W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 71.2W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 71.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 31.3N 71.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 32.9N 71.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 35.0N 70.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 68.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 44.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 50.0N 52.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 71.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 11:48:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 09:24:43 GMT

760
ABNT20 KNHC 271148
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located just to the west-northwest of St. Lucia and
heading toward the eastern Caribbean Sea.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located more than 300 miles southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 800 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 271147 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DORIAN MOVES ACROSS ST. LUCIA INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 61.2W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by surface observations and Martinique radar data near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 61.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Barbados...Additional rainfall up to 1 inch, storm total around 6 inches. Windward Islands from Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, especially where totals exceed 4 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Wednesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles today. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...DORIAN MOVES ACROSS ST. LUCIA INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 14.0, -61.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 08:56:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 09:24:43 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 753 WTNT45 KNHC 270854 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Dorian passed over Barbados a few hours ago and it is now very near the Windward Islands. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters earlier this morning suggest that the storm has held steady in intensity with a blend of the flight level and SFMR winds supporting a wind speed of 45 kt. The Caribbean composite radar data show that Dorian remains a very compact system and that it still lacks a well-defined inner core. Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere around Dorian has been causing the storm to remain in a fairly steady state during the past day or so despite relatively low wind shear conditions and warm SSTs. The models show this dry air persisting in the vicinity of the system while it tracks across the Caribbean during the next day or two, so it seems likely that Dorian will continue to only gradually intensify during that time. When Dorian nears Hispaniola in 36 to 48 hours, there will likely be some increase in wind shear and those less favorable winds aloft and the interaction with the landmasses of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should cause considerable weakening. Once the system moves north of the Greater Antilles, the environmental conditions become more favorable for intensification, and most of the intensity guidance responds by showing an increase in winds. However, there remains considerable uncertainty for this part of the forecast because the future intensity of Dorian will be quite dependent on how much land interaction there is with the mountainous island of Hispaniola. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance in the short term, while the system is over the Caribbean Sea, but near the middle of the guidance envelope after that. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. This general motion should continue for another 12 to 24 hours taking Dorian across the eastern Caribbean Sea. After that time, a slight turn to the northwest is likely when the cyclone nears the eastern portion of a cut off mid- to upper-level low and moves toward a weakness in the ridge. This should take Dorian across the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage and over the Bahamas in the 3 to 4 day time period. A ridge is likely to rebuild to the north of Dorian when it is forecast to be over the Bahamas and that could cause it to turn slightly to the left by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely unchanged while Dorian is in the Caribbean, but it has been shifted slightly to the north thereafter. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next several hours, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected from Martinique to St. Vincent with isolated totals as high as 10 inches possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch have been issued. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. 3. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the Dominican Republic. 4. While uncertainty remains high, wind and rain impacts are possible in the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 13.5N 60.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 17.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 18.5N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 21.7N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 24.7N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 27.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 270854 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 38(47) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 26(46) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15(32) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 5(36) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 47(51) 4(55) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 30(48) X(48) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 8(54) X(54) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 27(33) 2(35) X(35) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 X 1( 1) 34(35) 24(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 13(13) 43(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X 3( 3) 31(34) 5(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT CROIX 34 X 5( 5) 26(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 1 84(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) AVES 50 X 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) AVES 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAINT LUCIA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAINT LUCIA 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 270854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DORIAN MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 60.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Samana. The government of the Dominican Republic has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch on the south coast of the island from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque and on the north coast from Samana to Puerto Plata. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 60.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Barbados...Additional rainfall up to 1 inch, storm total around 6 inches. Windward Islands from Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, especially where totals exceed 4 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Wednesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles today. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DORIAN MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 13.5, -60.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 551 WTNT25 KNHC 270853 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE ISLAND FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 60.7W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 60.7W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 60.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.5N 68.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N 71.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 24.7N 75.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.1N 79.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 60.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 08:45:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 09:31:48 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 270843 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 The satellite presentation during the past several hours shows some curved banding improvement associated with the cyclone, particularly in the southeast quadrant, however, the circulation is still poorly defined. In fact, imagery reveals multiple swirls rotating about a large circulation. No changes to the subjective satellite intensity estimates, from both TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The 25-30 kt of westerly shear, indicated by the UW-CIMSS shear product, is forecast to decrease somewhat around mid-period while the system remains over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. This, along with some baroclinic forcing in response to an approaching mid-latitude trough from the northeast United States, should allow for the cyclone to modestly strengthening. The Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast, and the global models, including the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery, now indicate the cyclone completing an extratropical transition in 3 days, and the official forecast is adjusted accordingly. Afterward, as extratropical low quickly approaches eastern Canada, the large-scale models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by a larger baroclinic system embedded in the westerlies, and this is also indicated in the official forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be a generally southward drift, or 125/2 kt, within weak low to mid-level steering flow residing between the Bermuda high to the east and a mid-level ridge over the mid-Atlantic states. The depression is forecast to move little through today as it remains in the aforementioned weak steering current. Afterward, a mid-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move toward the northeastern United States on Wednesday, and should induce a northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed, away from the eastern seaboard. Only a slight adjustment to the left of the previous forecast was made to align more with the reliable NOAA HCCA and TVCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 31.0N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 31.4N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 32.5N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 34.1N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 36.7N 69.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 42.9N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0600Z 49.8N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 270843 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 270843 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 71.6W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 71.6W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.4N 71.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.5N 71.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 34.1N 71.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.7N 69.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 42.9N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 49.8N 55.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 71.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 270843 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 71.6W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. The depression is drifting toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and is expected to move little through tonight, then accelerate northward Wednesday to northeastward Thursday through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 the center of Six was located near 31.0, -71.6 with movement SE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 270527 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DORIAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 60.2W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 60.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St. Vincent. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles through the morning, and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DORIAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Aug 27 the center of Dorian was located near 13.2, -60.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.