Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A localized severe thunderstorm risk is possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Synopsis... Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough pivoting northeast across the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast. An extensive rain shield is located immediately ahead of the trough over the central Gulf Coast/lower MS Valley. Although the primary surface low is forecast to develop from northeast OK into the lower MO Valley tonight, a secondary area of low pressure is forecast to develop from southeast LA into MS/AL during the overnight on the northern periphery of the more appreciably modified-Gulf airmass. It remains possible storm development will occur this evening over southeast LA and move downstream into parts of southern MS/AL. Although the incipient severe risk is conditional upon robust storm development (substantial airmass modification will need to occur based on the 00z Slidell, LA 00z raob; 0 J/kg MUCAPE), will continue with the low probability highlight for a brief tornado/localized severe gust late this evening into the overnight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the East and areas from the High Plains westward to the West Coast. ..Smith.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A localized severe thunderstorm risk is possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Synopsis... Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough pivoting northeast across the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast. An extensive rain shield is located immediately ahead of the trough over the central Gulf Coast/lower MS Valley. Although the primary surface low is forecast to develop from northeast OK into the lower MO Valley tonight, a secondary area of low pressure is forecast to develop from southeast LA into MS/AL during the overnight on the northern periphery of the more appreciably modified-Gulf airmass. It remains possible storm development will occur this evening over southeast LA and move downstream into parts of southern MS/AL. Although the incipient severe risk is conditional upon robust storm development (substantial airmass modification will need to occur based on the 00z Slidell, LA 00z raob; 0 J/kg MUCAPE), will continue with the low probability highlight for a brief tornado/localized severe gust late this evening into the overnight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the East and areas from the High Plains westward to the West Coast. ..Smith.. 12/25/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 24 22:23:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 24 22:23:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. On D3/Tue, a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow trailing an expansive midlevel cyclone over the central CONUS will overspread the southern High Plains, where a warming/drying post-frontal air mass will be in place. This will favor dry/breezy conditions over portions of southeast NM into West TX; however, recent rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns here. On D4/Wed, strong deep-layer westerly flow on the southern periphery of the midlevel cyclone will overlay portions of the Lower MS Valley, where marginal afternoon RH reductions are expected. While this area is experiencing extreme drought and dry fuels, ongoing accumulating rainfall should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, the strong flow aloft accompanying the eastward-advancing cyclone will remain in place over much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A tightening offshore pressure gradient and shallow mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty surface winds across the region on D5-D6/Thursday-Friday. With that said, marginal RH reductions and additional rainfall should also limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. On D3/Tue, a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow trailing an expansive midlevel cyclone over the central CONUS will overspread the southern High Plains, where a warming/drying post-frontal air mass will be in place. This will favor dry/breezy conditions over portions of southeast NM into West TX; however, recent rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns here. On D4/Wed, strong deep-layer westerly flow on the southern periphery of the midlevel cyclone will overlay portions of the Lower MS Valley, where marginal afternoon RH reductions are expected. While this area is experiencing extreme drought and dry fuels, ongoing accumulating rainfall should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, the strong flow aloft accompanying the eastward-advancing cyclone will remain in place over much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A tightening offshore pressure gradient and shallow mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty surface winds across the region on D5-D6/Thursday-Friday. With that said, marginal RH reductions and additional rainfall should also limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. On D3/Tue, a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow trailing an expansive midlevel cyclone over the central CONUS will overspread the southern High Plains, where a warming/drying post-frontal air mass will be in place. This will favor dry/breezy conditions over portions of southeast NM into West TX; however, recent rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns here. On D4/Wed, strong deep-layer westerly flow on the southern periphery of the midlevel cyclone will overlay portions of the Lower MS Valley, where marginal afternoon RH reductions are expected. While this area is experiencing extreme drought and dry fuels, ongoing accumulating rainfall should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, the strong flow aloft accompanying the eastward-advancing cyclone will remain in place over much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A tightening offshore pressure gradient and shallow mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty surface winds across the region on D5-D6/Thursday-Friday. With that said, marginal RH reductions and additional rainfall should also limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. On D3/Tue, a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow trailing an expansive midlevel cyclone over the central CONUS will overspread the southern High Plains, where a warming/drying post-frontal air mass will be in place. This will favor dry/breezy conditions over portions of southeast NM into West TX; however, recent rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns here. On D4/Wed, strong deep-layer westerly flow on the southern periphery of the midlevel cyclone will overlay portions of the Lower MS Valley, where marginal afternoon RH reductions are expected. While this area is experiencing extreme drought and dry fuels, ongoing accumulating rainfall should generally mitigate fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, the strong flow aloft accompanying the eastward-advancing cyclone will remain in place over much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A tightening offshore pressure gradient and shallow mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty surface winds across the region on D5-D6/Thursday-Friday. With that said, marginal RH reductions and additional rainfall should also limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points already established across the north-central Gulf and far southeast LA, it is plausible that weak surface-based instability will at least brush the central Gulf Coast later tonight. This should become coincident with the trailing portion of a strengthening low-level jet across the Deep South. While deep convection ongoing over the northwest Gulf should largely translate east across the north-central Gulf, this setup may support an embedded supercell or two impinging on/developing over a portion of the central Gulf Coast States. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points already established across the north-central Gulf and far southeast LA, it is plausible that weak surface-based instability will at least brush the central Gulf Coast later tonight. This should become coincident with the trailing portion of a strengthening low-level jet across the Deep South. While deep convection ongoing over the northwest Gulf should largely translate east across the north-central Gulf, this setup may support an embedded supercell or two impinging on/developing over a portion of the central Gulf Coast States. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points already established across the north-central Gulf and far southeast LA, it is plausible that weak surface-based instability will at least brush the central Gulf Coast later tonight. This should become coincident with the trailing portion of a strengthening low-level jet across the Deep South. While deep convection ongoing over the northwest Gulf should largely translate east across the north-central Gulf, this setup may support an embedded supercell or two impinging on/developing over a portion of the central Gulf Coast States. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points already established across the north-central Gulf and far southeast LA, it is plausible that weak surface-based instability will at least brush the central Gulf Coast later tonight. This should become coincident with the trailing portion of a strengthening low-level jet across the Deep South. While deep convection ongoing over the northwest Gulf should largely translate east across the north-central Gulf, this setup may support an embedded supercell or two impinging on/developing over a portion of the central Gulf Coast States. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points already established across the north-central Gulf and far southeast LA, it is plausible that weak surface-based instability will at least brush the central Gulf Coast later tonight. This should become coincident with the trailing portion of a strengthening low-level jet across the Deep South. While deep convection ongoing over the northwest Gulf should largely translate east across the north-central Gulf, this setup may support an embedded supercell or two impinging on/developing over a portion of the central Gulf Coast States. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Southeast... While no severe area is currently highlighted, conditional brief tornado/localized damaging wind potential may become apparent from the FL Panhandle/southeast AL to the GA/SC border area on Monday. A gradually weakening shortwave impulse will move northeast from the Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley, pivoting around a deepening mid/upper low over the central Great Plains. Primary surface cyclone will occlude across parts of the Lower to Mid-MO Valley via a northwest arc through IA. A minor, southern-stream surface wave near the AL/FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday should decay with convergence along the cold front waning through the day. The trailing portion of an initially strong low-level jet within the warm conveyor will likewise pivot northeast from AL/western GA/FL Panhandle across the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Potential for surface-based destabilization within the warm conveyor should be quite limited inland of the Gulf Coast, with widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms amid initially poor low to mid-level lapse rates. Meager destabilization should occur during the day between the weakening cold front and the pivoting warm conveyor as the mid-level dry slot overspreads in the wake of the departing shortwave impulse, but this will be accompanied by substantial diminishing of low-level shear. While the most likely scenario is for a nil severe threat, favorable low-level hodographs within the warm conveyor suggests that potential may not be negligible if this can overlap adequate surface-based instability. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Southeast... While no severe area is currently highlighted, conditional brief tornado/localized damaging wind potential may become apparent from the FL Panhandle/southeast AL to the GA/SC border area on Monday. A gradually weakening shortwave impulse will move northeast from the Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley, pivoting around a deepening mid/upper low over the central Great Plains. Primary surface cyclone will occlude across parts of the Lower to Mid-MO Valley via a northwest arc through IA. A minor, southern-stream surface wave near the AL/FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday should decay with convergence along the cold front waning through the day. The trailing portion of an initially strong low-level jet within the warm conveyor will likewise pivot northeast from AL/western GA/FL Panhandle across the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Potential for surface-based destabilization within the warm conveyor should be quite limited inland of the Gulf Coast, with widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms amid initially poor low to mid-level lapse rates. Meager destabilization should occur during the day between the weakening cold front and the pivoting warm conveyor as the mid-level dry slot overspreads in the wake of the departing shortwave impulse, but this will be accompanied by substantial diminishing of low-level shear. While the most likely scenario is for a nil severe threat, favorable low-level hodographs within the warm conveyor suggests that potential may not be negligible if this can overlap adequate surface-based instability. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Southeast... While no severe area is currently highlighted, conditional brief tornado/localized damaging wind potential may become apparent from the FL Panhandle/southeast AL to the GA/SC border area on Monday. A gradually weakening shortwave impulse will move northeast from the Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley, pivoting around a deepening mid/upper low over the central Great Plains. Primary surface cyclone will occlude across parts of the Lower to Mid-MO Valley via a northwest arc through IA. A minor, southern-stream surface wave near the AL/FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday should decay with convergence along the cold front waning through the day. The trailing portion of an initially strong low-level jet within the warm conveyor will likewise pivot northeast from AL/western GA/FL Panhandle across the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Potential for surface-based destabilization within the warm conveyor should be quite limited inland of the Gulf Coast, with widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms amid initially poor low to mid-level lapse rates. Meager destabilization should occur during the day between the weakening cold front and the pivoting warm conveyor as the mid-level dry slot overspreads in the wake of the departing shortwave impulse, but this will be accompanied by substantial diminishing of low-level shear. While the most likely scenario is for a nil severe threat, favorable low-level hodographs within the warm conveyor suggests that potential may not be negligible if this can overlap adequate surface-based instability. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Southeast... While no severe area is currently highlighted, conditional brief tornado/localized damaging wind potential may become apparent from the FL Panhandle/southeast AL to the GA/SC border area on Monday. A gradually weakening shortwave impulse will move northeast from the Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley, pivoting around a deepening mid/upper low over the central Great Plains. Primary surface cyclone will occlude across parts of the Lower to Mid-MO Valley via a northwest arc through IA. A minor, southern-stream surface wave near the AL/FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday should decay with convergence along the cold front waning through the day. The trailing portion of an initially strong low-level jet within the warm conveyor will likewise pivot northeast from AL/western GA/FL Panhandle across the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Potential for surface-based destabilization within the warm conveyor should be quite limited inland of the Gulf Coast, with widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms amid initially poor low to mid-level lapse rates. Meager destabilization should occur during the day between the weakening cold front and the pivoting warm conveyor as the mid-level dry slot overspreads in the wake of the departing shortwave impulse, but this will be accompanied by substantial diminishing of low-level shear. While the most likely scenario is for a nil severe threat, favorable low-level hodographs within the warm conveyor suggests that potential may not be negligible if this can overlap adequate surface-based instability. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Southeast... While no severe area is currently highlighted, conditional brief tornado/localized damaging wind potential may become apparent from the FL Panhandle/southeast AL to the GA/SC border area on Monday. A gradually weakening shortwave impulse will move northeast from the Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley, pivoting around a deepening mid/upper low over the central Great Plains. Primary surface cyclone will occlude across parts of the Lower to Mid-MO Valley via a northwest arc through IA. A minor, southern-stream surface wave near the AL/FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday should decay with convergence along the cold front waning through the day. The trailing portion of an initially strong low-level jet within the warm conveyor will likewise pivot northeast from AL/western GA/FL Panhandle across the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Potential for surface-based destabilization within the warm conveyor should be quite limited inland of the Gulf Coast, with widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms amid initially poor low to mid-level lapse rates. Meager destabilization should occur during the day between the weakening cold front and the pivoting warm conveyor as the mid-level dry slot overspreads in the wake of the departing shortwave impulse, but this will be accompanied by substantial diminishing of low-level shear. While the most likely scenario is for a nil severe threat, favorable low-level hodographs within the warm conveyor suggests that potential may not be negligible if this can overlap adequate surface-based instability. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Southeast... While no severe area is currently highlighted, conditional brief tornado/localized damaging wind potential may become apparent from the FL Panhandle/southeast AL to the GA/SC border area on Monday. A gradually weakening shortwave impulse will move northeast from the Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley, pivoting around a deepening mid/upper low over the central Great Plains. Primary surface cyclone will occlude across parts of the Lower to Mid-MO Valley via a northwest arc through IA. A minor, southern-stream surface wave near the AL/FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday should decay with convergence along the cold front waning through the day. The trailing portion of an initially strong low-level jet within the warm conveyor will likewise pivot northeast from AL/western GA/FL Panhandle across the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Potential for surface-based destabilization within the warm conveyor should be quite limited inland of the Gulf Coast, with widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms amid initially poor low to mid-level lapse rates. Meager destabilization should occur during the day between the weakening cold front and the pivoting warm conveyor as the mid-level dry slot overspreads in the wake of the departing shortwave impulse, but this will be accompanied by substantial diminishing of low-level shear. While the most likely scenario is for a nil severe threat, favorable low-level hodographs within the warm conveyor suggests that potential may not be negligible if this can overlap adequate surface-based instability. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a surface low will occlude in the central/northern Plains and shift into the Upper Midwest. This will bring some breezy conditions from the Great Lakes to the Midwest and northern Plains. However, much of this area will either be moist with recent wetting rainfall or too cold to support significant fire spread. Elsewhere, fire-weather concerns will also remain minimal with a strong Arctic high in the Intermountain West and mostly wet fuels across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more