Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 25 21:06:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more

MD 2345 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA...FAR WESTERN IOWA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2345 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Far Western Iowa...Eastern South Dakota...Far Western Minnesota...Far Southeast North Dakota Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 251300Z - 251900Z SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain and sleet will be likely this morning along a narrow corridor from far western Iowa northward into far western Minnesota. Moderate snow, with the possibility of localized heavy snow, will be likely from eastern Nebraska northward across much of east-central South Dakota. DISCUSSION...A mid-level low will steadily deepen across the central High Plains this morning, as a surface low moves northward across central Iowa. A distinct band of large-scale ascent is forecast to move around the northern periphery of the system, making conditions favorable for widespread winter precipitation. Surface temperatures will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s F from near Omaha, Nebraska northward to near Fargo, North Dakota. RAP forecast soundings along this corridor this morning have a warm layer near 850 mb, suggesting that precipitation will be mostly in the form of freezing rain, and possibly sleet. Freezing rain rates of one tenth of an inch per hour will be possible in some areas. Further west from northeast Nebraska northward across much of east-central South Dakota, forecast soundings show sub-freezing temperatures throughout the low levels. This will support moderate snow. As isentropic lift dramatically strengthens this morning, locally heavy snow will be possible in some areas. Snowfall rates could reach near one inch per hour within the heaviest of bands. ..Broyles.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...BIS... LBF... LAT...LON 42069893 41459833 40979733 40909660 41059597 41249549 41619522 42669541 43779580 44409603 45409619 46209610 46769644 46869705 46469784 45749879 44899946 44299968 43179945 42069893 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more