Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relatively short periods of dry weather in the winter, but the combination of cool temperatures and significant wetting rainfall should preclude fire-weather concerns today. Within the broader wind field of the surface cyclone, there may be some pockets of dry and breezy conditions, particularly across parts of eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, amid strong northerly winds, but temperatures will remain below freezing. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. ..Hart/Thornton.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. ..Hart/Thornton.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. ..Hart/Thornton.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. ..Hart/Thornton.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. ..Hart/Thornton.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. ..Hart/Thornton.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. ..Hart/Thornton.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. ..Hart/Thornton.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper shortwave troughs will impact the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through the Day 4-8 period. This will result in reinforcing continental/offshore trajectories, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will prevail for most of the forecast period, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough will move onshore the Pacific coast around Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough are expected, though severe-storm potential will be low given generally cool conditions and unfavorable thermodynamics. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper shortwave troughs will impact the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through the Day 4-8 period. This will result in reinforcing continental/offshore trajectories, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will prevail for most of the forecast period, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough will move onshore the Pacific coast around Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough are expected, though severe-storm potential will be low given generally cool conditions and unfavorable thermodynamics. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper shortwave troughs will impact the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through the Day 4-8 period. This will result in reinforcing continental/offshore trajectories, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will prevail for most of the forecast period, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough will move onshore the Pacific coast around Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough are expected, though severe-storm potential will be low given generally cool conditions and unfavorable thermodynamics. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper shortwave troughs will impact the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through the Day 4-8 period. This will result in reinforcing continental/offshore trajectories, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will prevail for most of the forecast period, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough will move onshore the Pacific coast around Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough are expected, though severe-storm potential will be low given generally cool conditions and unfavorable thermodynamics. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may occur across coastal NC, mainly during the morning. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will envelop the Intermountain West, while a shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will moisten midlevels, while cooling aloft provides support for weak elevated instability. A few lightning flashes will be possible along the WA/OR coasts with this system. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more