Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may occur across coastal NC, mainly during the morning. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will envelop the Intermountain West, while a shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will moisten midlevels, while cooling aloft provides support for weak elevated instability. A few lightning flashes will be possible along the WA/OR coasts with this system. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may occur across coastal NC, mainly during the morning. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will envelop the Intermountain West, while a shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will moisten midlevels, while cooling aloft provides support for weak elevated instability. A few lightning flashes will be possible along the WA/OR coasts with this system. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may occur across coastal NC, mainly during the morning. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will envelop the Intermountain West, while a shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will moisten midlevels, while cooling aloft provides support for weak elevated instability. A few lightning flashes will be possible along the WA/OR coasts with this system. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2344 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250551Z - 250745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with the most robust convection early this morning. DISCUSSION...Negative-tilt upper trough is advancing northeast across the lower MS Delta region this evening. An extensive region of convection continues ahead of this feature extending from the northern Gulf Basin, northwest across southeast MS/southern AL. Boundary-layer air mass has been slow to modify inland, but surface dew points have crept into the lower 60s along the immediate coast with a 66F dew point now observed at Gulf Shores. Latest radar data suggests a few updrafts, embedded within this larger corridor of convection, are exhibiting some rotation, albeit mostly weak. These circulations may be enhanced somewhat due to an approaching MCV-like feature located about 50 mi south of MOB. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection is likely with 64F dew points, although instability will remain poor. Even so, some risk for a brief tornado or gusty winds may be noted with the strongest convection as it moves inland. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 29908824 31148877 31328772 30198676 29738736 29908824 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the middle of the CONUS will rotate eastward toward the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak low over GA Tuesday morning will slowly develop eastward toward the SC coast through early evening. A warm front will be draped across the Midlands of SC toward the far southern NC coast, while a cold front shifts east across the Southeast. A narrow, modest warm sector will reside across southeast GA and the SC coast ahead of these features. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization, with stronger instability remaining confined to the offshore the GA/SC coasts. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but poor thermodynamics and rapidly weakening vertical shear the first few hours of the morning will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the middle of the CONUS will rotate eastward toward the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak low over GA Tuesday morning will slowly develop eastward toward the SC coast through early evening. A warm front will be draped across the Midlands of SC toward the far southern NC coast, while a cold front shifts east across the Southeast. A narrow, modest warm sector will reside across southeast GA and the SC coast ahead of these features. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization, with stronger instability remaining confined to the offshore the GA/SC coasts. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but poor thermodynamics and rapidly weakening vertical shear the first few hours of the morning will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the middle of the CONUS will rotate eastward toward the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak low over GA Tuesday morning will slowly develop eastward toward the SC coast through early evening. A warm front will be draped across the Midlands of SC toward the far southern NC coast, while a cold front shifts east across the Southeast. A narrow, modest warm sector will reside across southeast GA and the SC coast ahead of these features. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization, with stronger instability remaining confined to the offshore the GA/SC coasts. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but poor thermodynamics and rapidly weakening vertical shear the first few hours of the morning will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the middle of the CONUS will rotate eastward toward the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak low over GA Tuesday morning will slowly develop eastward toward the SC coast through early evening. A warm front will be draped across the Midlands of SC toward the far southern NC coast, while a cold front shifts east across the Southeast. A narrow, modest warm sector will reside across southeast GA and the SC coast ahead of these features. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates will limit destabilization, with stronger instability remaining confined to the offshore the GA/SC coasts. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but poor thermodynamics and rapidly weakening vertical shear the first few hours of the morning will preclude severe potential. ..Leitman.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relatively short periods of dry weather in the winter, but the combination of cool temperatures and significant wetting rainfall should preclude fire-weather concerns today. Within the broader wind field of the surface cyclone, there may be some pockets of dry and breezy conditions, particularly across parts of eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, amid strong northerly winds, but temperatures will remain below freezing. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relatively short periods of dry weather in the winter, but the combination of cool temperatures and significant wetting rainfall should preclude fire-weather concerns today. Within the broader wind field of the surface cyclone, there may be some pockets of dry and breezy conditions, particularly across parts of eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, amid strong northerly winds, but temperatures will remain below freezing. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relatively short periods of dry weather in the winter, but the combination of cool temperatures and significant wetting rainfall should preclude fire-weather concerns today. Within the broader wind field of the surface cyclone, there may be some pockets of dry and breezy conditions, particularly across parts of eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, amid strong northerly winds, but temperatures will remain below freezing. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relatively short periods of dry weather in the winter, but the combination of cool temperatures and significant wetting rainfall should preclude fire-weather concerns today. Within the broader wind field of the surface cyclone, there may be some pockets of dry and breezy conditions, particularly across parts of eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, amid strong northerly winds, but temperatures will remain below freezing. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves northeast into the lower OH Valley by the mid afternoon. In the low levels, a surface low over MO will develop northward and occlude near the SD/IA/MN border as a cold front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, an increasingly pinched moist sector will extend from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley with 50s surface dewpoints north, and lower to mid 60s dewpoints south. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in an extensive rain shield from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley during the day. Despite several hundred J/kg MUCAPE, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will likely limit overall convective vigor. Additionally, decreasing large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast across the northeast Gulf Coast states and SC as the lead mid-level disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Farther north across parts of the lower OH Valley, models vary (lending uncertainty) regarding scant destabilization and subsequent potential for a couple of low-topped convective cells. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves northeast into the lower OH Valley by the mid afternoon. In the low levels, a surface low over MO will develop northward and occlude near the SD/IA/MN border as a cold front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, an increasingly pinched moist sector will extend from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley with 50s surface dewpoints north, and lower to mid 60s dewpoints south. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in an extensive rain shield from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley during the day. Despite several hundred J/kg MUCAPE, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will likely limit overall convective vigor. Additionally, decreasing large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast across the northeast Gulf Coast states and SC as the lead mid-level disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Farther north across parts of the lower OH Valley, models vary (lending uncertainty) regarding scant destabilization and subsequent potential for a couple of low-topped convective cells. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves northeast into the lower OH Valley by the mid afternoon. In the low levels, a surface low over MO will develop northward and occlude near the SD/IA/MN border as a cold front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, an increasingly pinched moist sector will extend from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley with 50s surface dewpoints north, and lower to mid 60s dewpoints south. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in an extensive rain shield from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley during the day. Despite several hundred J/kg MUCAPE, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will likely limit overall convective vigor. Additionally, decreasing large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast across the northeast Gulf Coast states and SC as the lead mid-level disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Farther north across parts of the lower OH Valley, models vary (lending uncertainty) regarding scant destabilization and subsequent potential for a couple of low-topped convective cells. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves northeast into the lower OH Valley by the mid afternoon. In the low levels, a surface low over MO will develop northward and occlude near the SD/IA/MN border as a cold front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, an increasingly pinched moist sector will extend from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley with 50s surface dewpoints north, and lower to mid 60s dewpoints south. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in an extensive rain shield from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley during the day. Despite several hundred J/kg MUCAPE, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will likely limit overall convective vigor. Additionally, decreasing large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast across the northeast Gulf Coast states and SC as the lead mid-level disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Farther north across parts of the lower OH Valley, models vary (lending uncertainty) regarding scant destabilization and subsequent potential for a couple of low-topped convective cells. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/25/2023 Read more