Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will amplify today and eventually develop into a closed low across the central Plains by Monday morning. During this period, a surface low will slowly strengthen as it shifts east along a front in the central/southern Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS. However, wetting rain has occurred or will occur during the day today across most of the region where the strongest winds are expected. Therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will amplify today and eventually develop into a closed low across the central Plains by Monday morning. During this period, a surface low will slowly strengthen as it shifts east along a front in the central/southern Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS. However, wetting rain has occurred or will occur during the day today across most of the region where the strongest winds are expected. Therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will amplify today and eventually develop into a closed low across the central Plains by Monday morning. During this period, a surface low will slowly strengthen as it shifts east along a front in the central/southern Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS. However, wetting rain has occurred or will occur during the day today across most of the region where the strongest winds are expected. Therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will amplify today and eventually develop into a closed low across the central Plains by Monday morning. During this period, a surface low will slowly strengthen as it shifts east along a front in the central/southern Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS. However, wetting rain has occurred or will occur during the day today across most of the region where the strongest winds are expected. Therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper shortwave impulse will lift northeast from the Southeast states to the central Appalachian vicinity through Monday evening. At the same time, a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts north from the Mid-MS Valley into the Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front oriented from the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley early in the day will shift east through the period, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan to the eastern FL Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, 60s F surface dewpoints in be in place across MS/AL and parts of GA, as well as across FL. However, widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit heating. Furthermore, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will further limit destabilization inland from the Gulf. While scattered thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast states into parts of GA and FL, severe potential will be limited by weak instability and weakening vertical shear, as the initial upper shortwave weakens and lifts northeast. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper shortwave impulse will lift northeast from the Southeast states to the central Appalachian vicinity through Monday evening. At the same time, a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts north from the Mid-MS Valley into the Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front oriented from the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley early in the day will shift east through the period, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan to the eastern FL Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, 60s F surface dewpoints in be in place across MS/AL and parts of GA, as well as across FL. However, widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit heating. Furthermore, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will further limit destabilization inland from the Gulf. While scattered thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast states into parts of GA and FL, severe potential will be limited by weak instability and weakening vertical shear, as the initial upper shortwave weakens and lifts northeast. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper shortwave impulse will lift northeast from the Southeast states to the central Appalachian vicinity through Monday evening. At the same time, a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts north from the Mid-MS Valley into the Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front oriented from the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley early in the day will shift east through the period, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan to the eastern FL Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, 60s F surface dewpoints in be in place across MS/AL and parts of GA, as well as across FL. However, widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit heating. Furthermore, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will further limit destabilization inland from the Gulf. While scattered thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast states into parts of GA and FL, severe potential will be limited by weak instability and weakening vertical shear, as the initial upper shortwave weakens and lifts northeast. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper shortwave impulse will lift northeast from the Southeast states to the central Appalachian vicinity through Monday evening. At the same time, a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts north from the Mid-MS Valley into the Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front oriented from the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley early in the day will shift east through the period, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan to the eastern FL Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, 60s F surface dewpoints in be in place across MS/AL and parts of GA, as well as across FL. However, widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit heating. Furthermore, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will further limit destabilization inland from the Gulf. While scattered thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast states into parts of GA and FL, severe potential will be limited by weak instability and weakening vertical shear, as the initial upper shortwave weakens and lifts northeast. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper shortwave impulse will lift northeast from the Southeast states to the central Appalachian vicinity through Monday evening. At the same time, a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts north from the Mid-MS Valley into the Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front oriented from the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley early in the day will shift east through the period, becoming oriented from near Lake Michigan to the eastern FL Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, 60s F surface dewpoints in be in place across MS/AL and parts of GA, as well as across FL. However, widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit heating. Furthermore, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will further limit destabilization inland from the Gulf. While scattered thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast states into parts of GA and FL, severe potential will be limited by weak instability and weakening vertical shear, as the initial upper shortwave weakens and lifts northeast. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough initially over the High Plains will feature a shortwave trough pivoting east through the base of the larger-scale trough and reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. As this process occurs, an upstream disturbance over the north-central Rockies will dig south-southeast into CO/NM during the day before evolving into a closed mid-level low centered over the central High Plains early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cold front over the southern Great Plains will sweep southeastward across OK and the eastern half of TX as a cyclone moves east paralleling the OK/KS border before moving into the lower MO Valley by daybreak Monday. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the eastern halves of OK/TX into LA during the morning. Considerable cloud cover will likely limit destabilization during the day across the northwest Gulf Coast. Although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, it seems likely that general thunderstorm activity will prevail over the south-central U.S. through tonight. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough initially over the High Plains will feature a shortwave trough pivoting east through the base of the larger-scale trough and reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. As this process occurs, an upstream disturbance over the north-central Rockies will dig south-southeast into CO/NM during the day before evolving into a closed mid-level low centered over the central High Plains early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cold front over the southern Great Plains will sweep southeastward across OK and the eastern half of TX as a cyclone moves east paralleling the OK/KS border before moving into the lower MO Valley by daybreak Monday. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the eastern halves of OK/TX into LA during the morning. Considerable cloud cover will likely limit destabilization during the day across the northwest Gulf Coast. Although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, it seems likely that general thunderstorm activity will prevail over the south-central U.S. through tonight. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough initially over the High Plains will feature a shortwave trough pivoting east through the base of the larger-scale trough and reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. As this process occurs, an upstream disturbance over the north-central Rockies will dig south-southeast into CO/NM during the day before evolving into a closed mid-level low centered over the central High Plains early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cold front over the southern Great Plains will sweep southeastward across OK and the eastern half of TX as a cyclone moves east paralleling the OK/KS border before moving into the lower MO Valley by daybreak Monday. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the eastern halves of OK/TX into LA during the morning. Considerable cloud cover will likely limit destabilization during the day across the northwest Gulf Coast. Although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, it seems likely that general thunderstorm activity will prevail over the south-central U.S. through tonight. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough initially over the High Plains will feature a shortwave trough pivoting east through the base of the larger-scale trough and reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. As this process occurs, an upstream disturbance over the north-central Rockies will dig south-southeast into CO/NM during the day before evolving into a closed mid-level low centered over the central High Plains early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cold front over the southern Great Plains will sweep southeastward across OK and the eastern half of TX as a cyclone moves east paralleling the OK/KS border before moving into the lower MO Valley by daybreak Monday. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the eastern halves of OK/TX into LA during the morning. Considerable cloud cover will likely limit destabilization during the day across the northwest Gulf Coast. Although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, it seems likely that general thunderstorm activity will prevail over the south-central U.S. through tonight. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough initially over the High Plains will feature a shortwave trough pivoting east through the base of the larger-scale trough and reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. As this process occurs, an upstream disturbance over the north-central Rockies will dig south-southeast into CO/NM during the day before evolving into a closed mid-level low centered over the central High Plains early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cold front over the southern Great Plains will sweep southeastward across OK and the eastern half of TX as a cyclone moves east paralleling the OK/KS border before moving into the lower MO Valley by daybreak Monday. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the eastern halves of OK/TX into LA during the morning. Considerable cloud cover will likely limit destabilization during the day across the northwest Gulf Coast. Although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, it seems likely that general thunderstorm activity will prevail over the south-central U.S. through tonight. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough initially over the High Plains will feature a shortwave trough pivoting east through the base of the larger-scale trough and reaching the lower MS Valley tonight. As this process occurs, an upstream disturbance over the north-central Rockies will dig south-southeast into CO/NM during the day before evolving into a closed mid-level low centered over the central High Plains early Monday morning. In the low levels, a cold front over the southern Great Plains will sweep southeastward across OK and the eastern half of TX as a cyclone moves east paralleling the OK/KS border before moving into the lower MO Valley by daybreak Monday. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the eastern halves of OK/TX into LA during the morning. Considerable cloud cover will likely limit destabilization during the day across the northwest Gulf Coast. Although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, it seems likely that general thunderstorm activity will prevail over the south-central U.S. through tonight. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/24/2023 Read more

MD 2343 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724... FOR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2343 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0854 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Areas affected...Western/Southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 724... Valid 240254Z - 240430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 724 continues. SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail threat will shift east over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing is shifting east ahead of progressive short-wave trough. Over the last few hours, a disjointed squall line has evolved from the southeast TX Panhandle, south across the Edwards Plateau into northern Mexico. Along this line, a fairly organized line segment, with some bowing, has evolved over Crockett County and a weak MCV may be evolving northwest of Ozona. This activity is progressing through the main instability axis and probably has peaked in intensity. Even so, an organized line of convection should advance beyond the eastern edge of ww724, along with a risk for gusty winds/hail. Some consideration may be given to adding a few counties to the eastern side of the watch to account for this evolution. ..Darrow.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29740191 32320121 32300008 29800071 29740191 Read more

MD 2342 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724... FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2342 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Areas affected...Portions of West Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 724... Valid 240024Z - 240230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 724 continues. SUMMARY...A few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will continue across West Texas this evening. DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed across West Texas. Thus far the maximum hail size reported has been around 0.75 inches which corresponds fairly well with MRMS MESH. However, recently there has been some stronger cores in the supercells near Midland. This is likely associated with lessening inhibition observed between the 21Z and 00Z MAF RAOB as temperatures cool aloft. Therefore, some severe hail and isolated severe wind gusts may be possible over the next few hours, especially along the I-20 corridor, while storms remain discrete. By later this evening, storms are expected to congeal into a cluster/line which should limit the severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 12/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30080348 31250340 31760291 32300156 32050065 31110064 30150116 29890278 30080348 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANSPECOS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low and associated trough moving east across the southern Rockies/southern High Plains. Strengthening forcing for ascent continues to spread east across the southern High Plains atop a moist boundary layer featuring upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. Weak buoyancy was sampled by the Midland, TX 00z raob (600 J/kg MLCAPE) with a wind profile supporting organized storms. Although slow nocturnal cooling will occur across the southern Great Plains, weak buoyancy will be maintained. Through the mid to late evening hours, the severe risk will be greatest from near the Big Bend northward into parts of the Permian Basin. Large hail/severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms before a gradual weakening of storms as they move east into western parts of central TX tonight. Farther north over northwest TX and far southwestern OK, a forced convective band may yield an isolated risk for localized severe gusts before this convective band becomes increasingly elevated and moves east of an instability axis. ..Smith.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANSPECOS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low and associated trough moving east across the southern Rockies/southern High Plains. Strengthening forcing for ascent continues to spread east across the southern High Plains atop a moist boundary layer featuring upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. Weak buoyancy was sampled by the Midland, TX 00z raob (600 J/kg MLCAPE) with a wind profile supporting organized storms. Although slow nocturnal cooling will occur across the southern Great Plains, weak buoyancy will be maintained. Through the mid to late evening hours, the severe risk will be greatest from near the Big Bend northward into parts of the Permian Basin. Large hail/severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms before a gradual weakening of storms as they move east into western parts of central TX tonight. Farther north over northwest TX and far southwestern OK, a forced convective band may yield an isolated risk for localized severe gusts before this convective band becomes increasingly elevated and moves east of an instability axis. ..Smith.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANSPECOS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low and associated trough moving east across the southern Rockies/southern High Plains. Strengthening forcing for ascent continues to spread east across the southern High Plains atop a moist boundary layer featuring upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. Weak buoyancy was sampled by the Midland, TX 00z raob (600 J/kg MLCAPE) with a wind profile supporting organized storms. Although slow nocturnal cooling will occur across the southern Great Plains, weak buoyancy will be maintained. Through the mid to late evening hours, the severe risk will be greatest from near the Big Bend northward into parts of the Permian Basin. Large hail/severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms before a gradual weakening of storms as they move east into western parts of central TX tonight. Farther north over northwest TX and far southwestern OK, a forced convective band may yield an isolated risk for localized severe gusts before this convective band becomes increasingly elevated and moves east of an instability axis. ..Smith.. 12/24/2023 Read more