Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANSPECOS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low and associated trough moving east across the southern Rockies/southern High Plains. Strengthening forcing for ascent continues to spread east across the southern High Plains atop a moist boundary layer featuring upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. Weak buoyancy was sampled by the Midland, TX 00z raob (600 J/kg MLCAPE) with a wind profile supporting organized storms. Although slow nocturnal cooling will occur across the southern Great Plains, weak buoyancy will be maintained. Through the mid to late evening hours, the severe risk will be greatest from near the Big Bend northward into parts of the Permian Basin. Large hail/severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms before a gradual weakening of storms as they move east into western parts of central TX tonight. Farther north over northwest TX and far southwestern OK, a forced convective band may yield an isolated risk for localized severe gusts before this convective band becomes increasingly elevated and moves east of an instability axis. ..Smith.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANSPECOS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low and associated trough moving east across the southern Rockies/southern High Plains. Strengthening forcing for ascent continues to spread east across the southern High Plains atop a moist boundary layer featuring upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. Weak buoyancy was sampled by the Midland, TX 00z raob (600 J/kg MLCAPE) with a wind profile supporting organized storms. Although slow nocturnal cooling will occur across the southern Great Plains, weak buoyancy will be maintained. Through the mid to late evening hours, the severe risk will be greatest from near the Big Bend northward into parts of the Permian Basin. Large hail/severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms before a gradual weakening of storms as they move east into western parts of central TX tonight. Farther north over northwest TX and far southwestern OK, a forced convective band may yield an isolated risk for localized severe gusts before this convective band becomes increasingly elevated and moves east of an instability axis. ..Smith.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANSPECOS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low and associated trough moving east across the southern Rockies/southern High Plains. Strengthening forcing for ascent continues to spread east across the southern High Plains atop a moist boundary layer featuring upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. Weak buoyancy was sampled by the Midland, TX 00z raob (600 J/kg MLCAPE) with a wind profile supporting organized storms. Although slow nocturnal cooling will occur across the southern Great Plains, weak buoyancy will be maintained. Through the mid to late evening hours, the severe risk will be greatest from near the Big Bend northward into parts of the Permian Basin. Large hail/severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms before a gradual weakening of storms as they move east into western parts of central TX tonight. Farther north over northwest TX and far southwestern OK, a forced convective band may yield an isolated risk for localized severe gusts before this convective band becomes increasingly elevated and moves east of an instability axis. ..Smith.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANSPECOS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low and associated trough moving east across the southern Rockies/southern High Plains. Strengthening forcing for ascent continues to spread east across the southern High Plains atop a moist boundary layer featuring upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints. Weak buoyancy was sampled by the Midland, TX 00z raob (600 J/kg MLCAPE) with a wind profile supporting organized storms. Although slow nocturnal cooling will occur across the southern Great Plains, weak buoyancy will be maintained. Through the mid to late evening hours, the severe risk will be greatest from near the Big Bend northward into parts of the Permian Basin. Large hail/severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms before a gradual weakening of storms as they move east into western parts of central TX tonight. Farther north over northwest TX and far southwestern OK, a forced convective band may yield an isolated risk for localized severe gusts before this convective band becomes increasingly elevated and moves east of an instability axis. ..Smith.. 12/24/2023 Read more

WW 0724 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0724 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0724 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0724 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0724 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0724 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 724 SEVERE TSTM TX 232315Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West and Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through early evening and spread generally east-northeastward this evening, with the strongest storms capable of hail and gusty winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Big Spring TX to 25 miles west southwest of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0724 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0724 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 23 23:16:03 UTC 2023.

WW 724 SEVERE TSTM TX 232315Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West and Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through early evening and spread generally east-northeastward this evening, with the strongest storms capable of hail and gusty winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Big Spring TX to 25 miles west southwest of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 23 23:01:01 UTC 2023.

MD 2341 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NM AND WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2341 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NM and west TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232032Z - 232300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for hail and strong to severe winds may increase this afternoon as thunderstorms develop and move eastward. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Some clearing of low clouds has recently been noted across parts of west TX and southeastern NM as a shortwave trough pivots eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico. As of 2030Z, surface temperatures have generally warmed into 60s where this clearing has occurred. Modest low-level moisture continues to stream northward/westward ahead of a cold front across the southern High Plains, with low to mid 50s surface dewpoints prevalent. Cooling mid-level temperatures acting in concert with the modest daytime heating/moistening of the boundary layer will support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level southwesterly flow of 50-60 kt associated with the upper trough will foster strengthening deep-layer shear through the afternoon and evening across eastern NM into west TX. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity along a weak surface lee trough and the mountains of west TX over the next couple of hours. Initially more discrete/supercellular development should pose some threat for severe hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) given the favorable deep-layer shear and cold temperatures aloft. Later this afternoon and evening, upscale growth into small clusters and more linear structures is anticipated. As this mode transition occurs, strong to locally severe wind gusts around 55-65 mph appear possible where sufficient boundary-layer instability exists to support surface-based thunderstorms. Although the muted daytime heating and thermodynamic environment cast some uncertainty on the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe hail/wind threat, observational trends will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance in the next couple of hours. ..Gleason/Hart.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31290471 32290430 33100353 33880259 33940177 33740143 33360123 32890117 31170132 29850198 29640263 29150284 28890313 29240416 29780470 30400484 31290471 Read more

MD 2340 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2340 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Areas affected...Far east-central NM into the TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232014Z - 232215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A short, low-topped line segment in east-central New Mexico should expand in coverage as it progresses along the northern periphery of the surface-based instability plume. A brief, weak tornado and sporadic wind gusts of 45-60 mph will be possible. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance in this region is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A narrow short-line, low-topped segment around 110 km in length as of 20Z should increase in areal extent as it impinges on the northern periphery of the weak buoyancy plume characterized by 500-1000 J/kg from the TX South Plains to the Pecos Valley. Immediately ahead of this line, surface dew points remain 5-8 F lower across the remainder of east-central NM before increasing into northwest TX. However, surface temperatures have struggled to budge beyond the mid to upper 50s across northwest TX amid downstream rain/clouds within the low-level warm conveyor. Despite this instability profile, VWP data from FDX indicates low-level backing immediately ahead of the line, resulting in an enlarging low-level hodograph. Given the otherwise favorable deep-layer southwesterly shear profile, attempts at mesovortex formation should occur capable of producing sporadic strong gusts and a brief tornado. ..Grams/Hart.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 34820388 35420300 35810195 35940135 35890087 35590040 35220028 34790041 34490062 34270106 34130174 34090277 33940370 34820388 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. From Day 3/Monday through around Day 5/Wednesday, an expansive closed midlevel low will deepen as it moves slowly eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a related frontal system will occlude over parts of the Mid/Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds are expected across parts of the southern Plains on Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday, which may briefly overlap a warming/drying post-frontal air mass. However, any fire-weather concerns should generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Farther east, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the southern periphery of the closed low will overspread portions of the Mid-South and Southeast on Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday. This may promote breezy/gusty surface winds amid marginal RH reductions each afternoon. While fuels are rather dry across the region, accumulating rainfall early in the extended period should generally limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more