Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT -- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight, while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions, following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL. ...Central/south FL... A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms. Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula, the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant, and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional, areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in 12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential over southernmost FL and the Keys. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT -- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight, while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions, following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL. ...Central/south FL... A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms. Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula, the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant, and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional, areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in 12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential over southernmost FL and the Keys. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT -- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight, while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions, following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL. ...Central/south FL... A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms. Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula, the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant, and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional, areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in 12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential over southernmost FL and the Keys. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT -- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight, while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions, following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL. ...Central/south FL... A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms. Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula, the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant, and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional, areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in 12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential over southernmost FL and the Keys. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT -- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight, while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions, following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL. ...Central/south FL... A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms. Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula, the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant, and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional, areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in 12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential over southernmost FL and the Keys. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT -- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight, while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions, following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL. ...Central/south FL... A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms. Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula, the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant, and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional, areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in 12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential over southernmost FL and the Keys. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 period as a generally cold and stable airmass prevails over much of the CONUS. An upper ridge over the West on Day 4/Tue will weaken as it shifts east toward the Rockies/High Plains vicinity. In the wake of the eroding upper ridge, a series of shortwave troughs will migrate across the western U.S., reinforcing persistent troughing over the Plains and eastern states. At the surface, strong high pressure will migrate east from the Rockies and Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 6/Thu. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough/low is forecast to develop over the central/southern High Plains mid-week. This may allow for some modest moisture return across parts of the Gulf Coast ahead of another arctic cold front mid-to-late in the week. However, higher-quality moisture will likely remain offshore, limiting thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 period as a generally cold and stable airmass prevails over much of the CONUS. An upper ridge over the West on Day 4/Tue will weaken as it shifts east toward the Rockies/High Plains vicinity. In the wake of the eroding upper ridge, a series of shortwave troughs will migrate across the western U.S., reinforcing persistent troughing over the Plains and eastern states. At the surface, strong high pressure will migrate east from the Rockies and Plains to the eastern U.S. through Day 6/Thu. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough/low is forecast to develop over the central/southern High Plains mid-week. This may allow for some modest moisture return across parts of the Gulf Coast ahead of another arctic cold front mid-to-late in the week. However, higher-quality moisture will likely remain offshore, limiting thunderstorm potential. Read more