Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass on Monday will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the country. The exception will be across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the 60s ahead of a southward-sagging cold front will be in place over central/southern FL. Warm midlevel temperatures through much of the daytime hours will limit thunderstorm activity via poor lapse rates and capping. However, warm advection ahead of the front will continue through the nighttime hours, while a surface low begins to deepen off the northeast FL, GA and SC coasts late in the period. Modest midlevel cooling also will occur overnight, and at least minor ascent associated with a weak shortwave impulse may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass on Monday will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the country. The exception will be across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the 60s ahead of a southward-sagging cold front will be in place over central/southern FL. Warm midlevel temperatures through much of the daytime hours will limit thunderstorm activity via poor lapse rates and capping. However, warm advection ahead of the front will continue through the nighttime hours, while a surface low begins to deepen off the northeast FL, GA and SC coasts late in the period. Modest midlevel cooling also will occur overnight, and at least minor ascent associated with a weak shortwave impulse may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Aside from a rogue flash of lightning with weak convection off of Lake Erie, the probability for thunderstorms across the CONUS is negligible. Surface front has progressed off the southern tip of FL and any convection of note should be associated with the boundary offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2024 Read more