Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An arctic airmass and large upper cyclone will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Monday. Little thunderstorm potential is evident, with one exception across FL. Generally 60s surface dewpoints will be present along/south of a front over parts of the FL Peninsula. Poor lapse rates aloft and warm mid-level temperatures should hinder the development of any more than weak instability for much of the day. But, enough MUCAPE should eventually be present to support isolated thunderstorm potential mainly Monday evening into early Tuesday morning as a weak southern-stream shortwave trough moves across this region. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An arctic airmass and large upper cyclone will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Monday. Little thunderstorm potential is evident, with one exception across FL. Generally 60s surface dewpoints will be present along/south of a front over parts of the FL Peninsula. Poor lapse rates aloft and warm mid-level temperatures should hinder the development of any more than weak instability for much of the day. But, enough MUCAPE should eventually be present to support isolated thunderstorm potential mainly Monday evening into early Tuesday morning as a weak southern-stream shortwave trough moves across this region. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An arctic airmass and large upper cyclone will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Monday. Little thunderstorm potential is evident, with one exception across FL. Generally 60s surface dewpoints will be present along/south of a front over parts of the FL Peninsula. Poor lapse rates aloft and warm mid-level temperatures should hinder the development of any more than weak instability for much of the day. But, enough MUCAPE should eventually be present to support isolated thunderstorm potential mainly Monday evening into early Tuesday morning as a weak southern-stream shortwave trough moves across this region. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024 Read more

MD 0062 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PA INTO SOUTHERN NY
Mesoscale Discussion 0062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Areas affected...PA into southern NY Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 141325Z - 141700Z SUMMARY...Snow squall potential will spread east-northeastward this morning across Pennsylvania into parts of southern New York. The stronger squalls will be accompanied by brief heavy snow rates, gusty winds, and abrupt visibility reductions. DISCUSSION...Multiple snow bands are ongoing across parts of western/central PA this morning. These bands are ongoing within a broadly confluent frontal zone and are likely being aided by a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the upper Great Lakes region. The downstream environment is expected to become increasingly favorable for snow squalls with time, with strong cooling aloft (dropping below -20C at 700 mb) supporting steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE eventually approaching 100 J/kg, even with temperatures only warming into the low 30s F. The ongoing snow bands have already produced gusts in the 30-35 mph range, and strong southwesterly flow in the lowest 3 km AGL may support gusts greater than 40 mph, as low-level lapse rates steepen with time. It remains uncertain as to whether a more organized and extensive snow band will develop with time, with frontal convergence expected to remain relatively modest. However, even if such a band does not evolve, multiple smaller-scale bands will be capable of producing snow squalls with briefly heavy snow rates, gusty winds, and abrupt visibility reductions. ..Dean.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 41677844 42287758 42787492 42497443 41537461 40987535 40647605 40357696 40117854 40177931 40437941 40977917 41297889 41677844 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more