Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Aside from a rogue flash of lightning with weak convection off of Lake Erie, the probability for thunderstorms across the CONUS is negligible. Surface front has progressed off the southern tip of FL and any convection of note should be associated with the boundary offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Aside from a rogue flash of lightning with weak convection off of Lake Erie, the probability for thunderstorms across the CONUS is negligible. Surface front has progressed off the southern tip of FL and any convection of note should be associated with the boundary offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Aside from a rogue flash of lightning with weak convection off of Lake Erie, the probability for thunderstorms across the CONUS is negligible. Surface front has progressed off the southern tip of FL and any convection of note should be associated with the boundary offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 13 22:30:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0061 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
Mesoscale Discussion 0061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Areas affected...Northwestern Oregon and far southeastern Washington Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 132005Z - 140000Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow with snowfall rates between 1-2 in/hour will continue into the mid/late afternoon hours. Freezing rain remains probable through the Willamette Valley. DISCUSSION...Bands of moderate to heavy precipitation continue to overspread the Pacific Northwest ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. So far, much of this activity has been driven by warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer, but some uptick in precip coverage and intensity appears likely as lift associated with the vorticity maximum and attendant mid-level jet overspreads the region. The 18z SLE sounding sampled a deep saturated layer from the surface to around 450 mb with a somewhat shallow (~100 mb deep) 1-2 C warm nose centered at about 850 mb/3 kft. More recent KRTX CC imagery indicates that this warm nose remains in place. Locations above roughly 3 kft should continue to see moderate to heavy snowfall through the mid/late afternoon with snowfall rates between 1-2 in/hour possible. The shallow sub-freezing layer below ~3 kft will support a continuation of freezing rain for some locations - primarily through the Willamette Valley. However, localized fluctuations in the shallow warm layer may promote variation in precipitation types between freezing rain, snow, and sleet. ..Moore.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 44192375 44442423 44642418 46032410 46212399 46392363 46352107 46182067 45762021 45001991 44212004 43732038 43532087 43462157 43772338 44192375 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more