Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 13 19:54:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0060 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHWEST OR...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0060 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Areas affected...Northwest OR...including parts of the Willamette Valley Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 131350Z - 131845Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to increase in coverage and intensity this morning. Some mixing with sleet is also possible. DISCUSSION...An expansive anticyclone and related Arctic airmass is centered over the northern Rockies this morning, and cold temperatures have spread westward through the interior Northwest and into the Columbia Gorge and Willamette Valley. Meanwhile, a subtropical moisture plume has been drawn northward by a deep-layer cyclone over the central Pacific (centered near 27N/149W), and then eastward by a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough and deepening surface cyclone (centered near 44N/131W) approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. This moisture, combined with ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave, will support increasing precipitation from southwest to northeast across much of OR today. This will lead to increasing winter-precipitation rates in areas where cold air is now entrenched. In particular, expanding precipitation within the shallow cold airmass and a strengthening warm nose in the 900-800 mb layer will lead to an increasing freezing-rain threat this morning across parts of the Willamette Valley. Freezing rain has already been reported in Eugene, though areas farther north in the valley may initially mix with sleet or snow, given the initially deeper subfreezing layer noted in the 12Z SLE sounding. A transition to freezing rain is also expected across parts of the coastal ranges, and in areas along the immediate coast where adjacent terrain favors a greater intrusion of shallow cold air. Liquid-equivalent rates of 0.05-0.1 inch/hour will be possible through the morning as precipitation gradually spreads northward. Ice accretion will be rather efficient where temperatures can hold in the mid/upper 20s F, as suggested by the observation of 0.05-inch flat-ice accretion in the 13Z KEUG METAR when an initial band of freezing rain moved through. ..Dean.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFR...PQR... LAT...LON 44292275 43932291 43802326 43782350 43852370 44072374 44442367 44552395 45122397 45522386 45452364 45242341 45252276 44912266 44632271 44292275 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential appears very low across a large majority of the U.S. on Sunday, as cold and/or stable conditions will prevail with surface high pressure dominating east of the Rockies and a large upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS. Two possible exceptions are apparent. One is across parts of south FL Sunday morning along/near a remnant surface front. Showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across this region, as weak MUCAPE may support occasional lightning flashes. Thunderstorm potential should decrease here through the day. The second area of interest is across parts of New England. A mid-level vorticity maximum and related ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough will overspread this region through the day, in tandem with a surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very meager, but quickly cooling mid-level temperatures (between 700-500 mb) may still yield scant boundary- layer buoyancy even as surface temperatures remain in the 30s to low 40s. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates some potential for a low-topped convective line moving quickly east-northeastward Sunday afternoon across parts of New England. Whether updrafts can achieve sufficient depth to induce charge separation and isolated lightning flashes remains uncertain. But, strong/gusty winds may occur given the strength of the background low/mid-level winds. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z No changes. The forecast remains on track with some 15 to 20 mph winds already present across Far West Texas. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more