Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period, as a series of shortwave to synoptic-scale troughs maintain net cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS. The lead synoptic trough -- initially including a closed low over southern ON and extending to the Carolinas -- is forecast to eject northeastward to QC and Atlantic Canada through the period, while weakening somewhat. An upstream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of WY/UT -- will move eastward across the central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley through the period. This perturbation will have little or no convective consequence due to its passage over unfavorably dry and stable, post-frontal air in low levels. The most important feature, both for convective potential today and the next few -- is a trough initially located over portions of the Pacific Northwest, with a lobe northwestward past Vancouver Island. This feature should move southeastward through the period, crossing OR and ID today, and extending from central WY to southern CA by 12Z tomorrow. Associated cooling aloft -- superimposed with a moist and marginally but sufficiently buoyant marine layer -- will support isolated lightning flashes with the best-organized (and still relatively shallow) convective turrets near the Northwest coast. Steepening lapse rates inland, in the zone of large-scale DCVA/ ascent ahead of the mid/upper trough -- will overlie weak low/ middle-level moisture and frontogenetic forcing to support isolated lightning potential with shallow, mostly snow-producing convection from parts of the Sierra eastward over the Great Basin. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period, as a series of shortwave to synoptic-scale troughs maintain net cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS. The lead synoptic trough -- initially including a closed low over southern ON and extending to the Carolinas -- is forecast to eject northeastward to QC and Atlantic Canada through the period, while weakening somewhat. An upstream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of WY/UT -- will move eastward across the central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley through the period. This perturbation will have little or no convective consequence due to its passage over unfavorably dry and stable, post-frontal air in low levels. The most important feature, both for convective potential today and the next few -- is a trough initially located over portions of the Pacific Northwest, with a lobe northwestward past Vancouver Island. This feature should move southeastward through the period, crossing OR and ID today, and extending from central WY to southern CA by 12Z tomorrow. Associated cooling aloft -- superimposed with a moist and marginally but sufficiently buoyant marine layer -- will support isolated lightning flashes with the best-organized (and still relatively shallow) convective turrets near the Northwest coast. Steepening lapse rates inland, in the zone of large-scale DCVA/ ascent ahead of the mid/upper trough -- will overlie weak low/ middle-level moisture and frontogenetic forcing to support isolated lightning potential with shallow, mostly snow-producing convection from parts of the Sierra eastward over the Great Basin. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 01/10/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more