Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain unsuitable for deep moist convection through the period over most of the CONUS. A strong, synoptic-scale trough -- now exiting the East Coast, has been preceded by a surface cold front leaving a cool, stable boundary layer behind it, east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a high-amplitude ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, Great Basin and northern Rockies. A northern-stream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over MB -- is forecast to dig southeastward to the Upper Great Lakes and mid/upper parts of the Mississippi Valley overnight. This feature will be preceded by a strengthening low-level cold front and large-scale lift aloft. An associated band of precip -- with embedded, weak, mainly midlevel convection -- should cross parts of MI/Lake Michigan/IL overnight, reaching northern IN by 12Z. While some forecast soundings indicate very weak elevated MUCAPE (less than 100 J/kg) in roughly the 600-500-mb layer, any lighting potential appears too uncertain and isolated for an unconditional, 10% general-thunder area. ..Edwards.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain unsuitable for deep moist convection through the period over most of the CONUS. A strong, synoptic-scale trough -- now exiting the East Coast, has been preceded by a surface cold front leaving a cool, stable boundary layer behind it, east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a high-amplitude ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, Great Basin and northern Rockies. A northern-stream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over MB -- is forecast to dig southeastward to the Upper Great Lakes and mid/upper parts of the Mississippi Valley overnight. This feature will be preceded by a strengthening low-level cold front and large-scale lift aloft. An associated band of precip -- with embedded, weak, mainly midlevel convection -- should cross parts of MI/Lake Michigan/IL overnight, reaching northern IN by 12Z. While some forecast soundings indicate very weak elevated MUCAPE (less than 100 J/kg) in roughly the 600-500-mb layer, any lighting potential appears too uncertain and isolated for an unconditional, 10% general-thunder area. ..Edwards.. 01/29/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area of interest exists for mainly isolated severe potential, centered on early D6 across the TX/LA coastal plain and sometime on D7 over the FL Peninsula. Large-scale predictability has increased over the past 24 hours with the subsequent evolution of the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaching the West Coast on D4. Amid several embedded vorticity maxima and a very fast mid/upper jet, the trough will become negatively tilted followed by evolving into a closed low near and along the Gulf Coast through this weekend. With surface ridging being maintained across the eastern Gulf and FL on D4-6, the warm-moist sector should be spatially confined initially to the western Gulf. While this will undoubtedly lead to thunder coverage increasing substantially by late Friday over parts of TX, the bulk of isolated severe potential should be maximized on Saturday near the coastal plain where boundary-layer moisture will be richest. Guidance suggests a progressive evolution will persist into Sunday, potentially yielding a rapid influx of Gulf moisture for a seemingly isolated severe threat across the FL Peninsula. Sub-synoptic differences remain quite apparent among deterministic guidance regarding the spatiotemporal details of surface cyclone evolution and low-level wind fields, with a large degree of ensemble member spread. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area of interest exists for mainly isolated severe potential, centered on early D6 across the TX/LA coastal plain and sometime on D7 over the FL Peninsula. Large-scale predictability has increased over the past 24 hours with the subsequent evolution of the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaching the West Coast on D4. Amid several embedded vorticity maxima and a very fast mid/upper jet, the trough will become negatively tilted followed by evolving into a closed low near and along the Gulf Coast through this weekend. With surface ridging being maintained across the eastern Gulf and FL on D4-6, the warm-moist sector should be spatially confined initially to the western Gulf. While this will undoubtedly lead to thunder coverage increasing substantially by late Friday over parts of TX, the bulk of isolated severe potential should be maximized on Saturday near the coastal plain where boundary-layer moisture will be richest. Guidance suggests a progressive evolution will persist into Sunday, potentially yielding a rapid influx of Gulf moisture for a seemingly isolated severe threat across the FL Peninsula. Sub-synoptic differences remain quite apparent among deterministic guidance regarding the spatiotemporal details of surface cyclone evolution and low-level wind fields, with a large degree of ensemble member spread. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area of interest exists for mainly isolated severe potential, centered on early D6 across the TX/LA coastal plain and sometime on D7 over the FL Peninsula. Large-scale predictability has increased over the past 24 hours with the subsequent evolution of the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaching the West Coast on D4. Amid several embedded vorticity maxima and a very fast mid/upper jet, the trough will become negatively tilted followed by evolving into a closed low near and along the Gulf Coast through this weekend. With surface ridging being maintained across the eastern Gulf and FL on D4-6, the warm-moist sector should be spatially confined initially to the western Gulf. While this will undoubtedly lead to thunder coverage increasing substantially by late Friday over parts of TX, the bulk of isolated severe potential should be maximized on Saturday near the coastal plain where boundary-layer moisture will be richest. Guidance suggests a progressive evolution will persist into Sunday, potentially yielding a rapid influx of Gulf moisture for a seemingly isolated severe threat across the FL Peninsula. Sub-synoptic differences remain quite apparent among deterministic guidance regarding the spatiotemporal details of surface cyclone evolution and low-level wind fields, with a large degree of ensemble member spread. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area of interest exists for mainly isolated severe potential, centered on early D6 across the TX/LA coastal plain and sometime on D7 over the FL Peninsula. Large-scale predictability has increased over the past 24 hours with the subsequent evolution of the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaching the West Coast on D4. Amid several embedded vorticity maxima and a very fast mid/upper jet, the trough will become negatively tilted followed by evolving into a closed low near and along the Gulf Coast through this weekend. With surface ridging being maintained across the eastern Gulf and FL on D4-6, the warm-moist sector should be spatially confined initially to the western Gulf. While this will undoubtedly lead to thunder coverage increasing substantially by late Friday over parts of TX, the bulk of isolated severe potential should be maximized on Saturday near the coastal plain where boundary-layer moisture will be richest. Guidance suggests a progressive evolution will persist into Sunday, potentially yielding a rapid influx of Gulf moisture for a seemingly isolated severe threat across the FL Peninsula. Sub-synoptic differences remain quite apparent among deterministic guidance regarding the spatiotemporal details of surface cyclone evolution and low-level wind fields, with a large degree of ensemble member spread. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area of interest exists for mainly isolated severe potential, centered on early D6 across the TX/LA coastal plain and sometime on D7 over the FL Peninsula. Large-scale predictability has increased over the past 24 hours with the subsequent evolution of the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaching the West Coast on D4. Amid several embedded vorticity maxima and a very fast mid/upper jet, the trough will become negatively tilted followed by evolving into a closed low near and along the Gulf Coast through this weekend. With surface ridging being maintained across the eastern Gulf and FL on D4-6, the warm-moist sector should be spatially confined initially to the western Gulf. While this will undoubtedly lead to thunder coverage increasing substantially by late Friday over parts of TX, the bulk of isolated severe potential should be maximized on Saturday near the coastal plain where boundary-layer moisture will be richest. Guidance suggests a progressive evolution will persist into Sunday, potentially yielding a rapid influx of Gulf moisture for a seemingly isolated severe threat across the FL Peninsula. Sub-synoptic differences remain quite apparent among deterministic guidance regarding the spatiotemporal details of surface cyclone evolution and low-level wind fields, with a large degree of ensemble member spread. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again, winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again, winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again, winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again, winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the southern Appalachians will shift off the South Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. Overall environment ahead of this wave will remain similar to late D2, with limited low-level moisture likely supporting only minimal elevated buoyancy. In conjunction with moderate large-scale ascent, a few lightning flashes are possible across the coastal plain of the Carolinas. Thunder probabilities will increase above 10 percent offshore, as the lobe of ascent overspreads the more unstable Gulf Stream. Along coastal northern/central CA, scant surface-based instability may develop by Wednesday night as PW increases ahead of a large-scale upper trough approaching the Pacific Coast. Sporadic lightning flashes are possible with low-topped convection that is sustained within an onshore low-level flow regime, on the backside of the leading warm-advection rain swath. ..Grams.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the southern Appalachians will shift off the South Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. Overall environment ahead of this wave will remain similar to late D2, with limited low-level moisture likely supporting only minimal elevated buoyancy. In conjunction with moderate large-scale ascent, a few lightning flashes are possible across the coastal plain of the Carolinas. Thunder probabilities will increase above 10 percent offshore, as the lobe of ascent overspreads the more unstable Gulf Stream. Along coastal northern/central CA, scant surface-based instability may develop by Wednesday night as PW increases ahead of a large-scale upper trough approaching the Pacific Coast. Sporadic lightning flashes are possible with low-topped convection that is sustained within an onshore low-level flow regime, on the backside of the leading warm-advection rain swath. ..Grams.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough near the southern Appalachians will shift off the South Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. Overall environment ahead of this wave will remain similar to late D2, with limited low-level moisture likely supporting only minimal elevated buoyancy. In conjunction with moderate large-scale ascent, a few lightning flashes are possible across the coastal plain of the Carolinas. Thunder probabilities will increase above 10 percent offshore, as the lobe of ascent overspreads the more unstable Gulf Stream. Along coastal northern/central CA, scant surface-based instability may develop by Wednesday night as PW increases ahead of a large-scale upper trough approaching the Pacific Coast. Sporadic lightning flashes are possible with low-topped convection that is sustained within an onshore low-level flow regime, on the backside of the leading warm-advection rain swath. ..Grams.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue to minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue to minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue to minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move southeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the southern Appalachians through 12Z Wednesday. While the associated surface reflection will be weak, mid-level height falls will aid in moderate large-scale ascent. While 850-700 mb moisture will be limited, with generally 40s surface dew points emanating east from the Deep South, cooling mid-level temperatures might support minimal elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. Guidance largely suggests that MUCAPE will remain below 100 J/kg. A couple lightning flashes might occur towards the southern Piedmont from the Carolinas into GA early Wednesday morning. This appears to be below the 10 percent probability threshold needed for a thunder area delineation. ..Grams.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move southeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the southern Appalachians through 12Z Wednesday. While the associated surface reflection will be weak, mid-level height falls will aid in moderate large-scale ascent. While 850-700 mb moisture will be limited, with generally 40s surface dew points emanating east from the Deep South, cooling mid-level temperatures might support minimal elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. Guidance largely suggests that MUCAPE will remain below 100 J/kg. A couple lightning flashes might occur towards the southern Piedmont from the Carolinas into GA early Wednesday morning. This appears to be below the 10 percent probability threshold needed for a thunder area delineation. ..Grams.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move southeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the southern Appalachians through 12Z Wednesday. While the associated surface reflection will be weak, mid-level height falls will aid in moderate large-scale ascent. While 850-700 mb moisture will be limited, with generally 40s surface dew points emanating east from the Deep South, cooling mid-level temperatures might support minimal elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. Guidance largely suggests that MUCAPE will remain below 100 J/kg. A couple lightning flashes might occur towards the southern Piedmont from the Carolinas into GA early Wednesday morning. This appears to be below the 10 percent probability threshold needed for a thunder area delineation. ..Grams.. 01/29/2024 Read more