Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability concerns have increased for next weekend, which yields low confidence in confidently assessing severe potential across the Gulf Coast region. As one amplified shortwave trough shifts from the southern Appalachians off the Carolina Coast on D4, an upstream shortwave trough should dig across the Great Lakes towards the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States through D6. This will help maintain a relatively dry, northwesterly to westerly low-level flow regime over the eastern Gulf and FL. As the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaches the West Coast on D5, a series of embedded vorticity maxima and very fast mid/upper jet should overspread northern Mexico and the adjacent CONUS border area. While the broader guidance signal is for a negative-tilt shortwave trough to evolve into a potential closed low, spatiotemporal differences become pronounced heading into next weekend. Modified moisture return across the western Gulf should result in increasing thunder potential over at least TX late D6 into D7. Richer low-level moisture may be confined to just the TX coastal plain with a relatively limited spatiotemporal threat for severe around Saturday. This may shift east towards FL around next Sunday, but the large ensemble/deterministic spread at this time frame renders low confidence. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward on Monday into more of the Plains. While high surface pressure will remain in parts of the northern/central Rockies, the pressure pattern will become more diffuse from southern California into the southern Plains. Areas of dry conditions are probable, but light winds and poorly receptive fuels will continue to keep fire weather concerns minimal. ..Wendt.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward on Monday into more of the Plains. While high surface pressure will remain in parts of the northern/central Rockies, the pressure pattern will become more diffuse from southern California into the southern Plains. Areas of dry conditions are probable, but light winds and poorly receptive fuels will continue to keep fire weather concerns minimal. ..Wendt.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, digging from the Canadian Prairies into the Upper MS Valley by 12Z Tuesday, will continue southeastward towards the southern Appalachians through 12Z Wednesday. A broad surface ridge/embedded anticyclone will be maintained across the central Great Plains to the western Gulf Coast. Although airmass modification will ensue across the FL Straits, areas to the north/west off the South Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions will continue to hold 40s to low 50s surface dew points. With negligible buoyancy continuing across the CONUS, thunder is not anticipated. ..Grams.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, digging from the Canadian Prairies into the Upper MS Valley by 12Z Tuesday, will continue southeastward towards the southern Appalachians through 12Z Wednesday. A broad surface ridge/embedded anticyclone will be maintained across the central Great Plains to the western Gulf Coast. Although airmass modification will ensue across the FL Straits, areas to the north/west off the South Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions will continue to hold 40s to low 50s surface dew points. With negligible buoyancy continuing across the CONUS, thunder is not anticipated. ..Grams.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ..Wendt.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ..Wendt.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A dry continental air mass will envelop the western Atlantic off the East Coast, as well as the Gulf Basin, in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Sunday. Surface dew points in the 40s to low 50s will be common to the west/north of the Bahamas, as a surface anticyclone becomes anchored near the western Gulf Coast. Potential for buoyancy across the CONUS will be negligible and thunder is not anticipated. ..Grams.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A dry continental air mass will envelop the western Atlantic off the East Coast, as well as the Gulf Basin, in the wake of a cold frontal passage on Sunday. Surface dew points in the 40s to low 50s will be common to the west/north of the Bahamas, as a surface anticyclone becomes anchored near the western Gulf Coast. Potential for buoyancy across the CONUS will be negligible and thunder is not anticipated. ..Grams.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, with only an early morning chance of thunderstorms near the Mid Atlantic Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deepening upper low will move east from the OH Valley into New England today, with the upper trough sweeping eastward toward the Atlantic Coast by evening. Northwest flow aloft will then exist in the wake of this trough, from the Plains to the East Coast into Monday. At the surface, low pressure will be located over southeast VA at 12Z this morning, and will deepen as it moves quickly offshore. Strong and veering low-level winds will push the cold front offshore as well, with a maximum of 1-2 hours of warm sector over land from southeast VA into the eastern Carolinas this morning. Weak instability, perhaps up to 250 J/kg, may briefly support a few strong storms near the low or just south prior to moving offshore. Gusty winds may accompany any frontal convection as low-level SRH weakens due to the rapidly veering surface flow. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, with only an early morning chance of thunderstorms near the Mid Atlantic Coast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deepening upper low will move east from the OH Valley into New England today, with the upper trough sweeping eastward toward the Atlantic Coast by evening. Northwest flow aloft will then exist in the wake of this trough, from the Plains to the East Coast into Monday. At the surface, low pressure will be located over southeast VA at 12Z this morning, and will deepen as it moves quickly offshore. Strong and veering low-level winds will push the cold front offshore as well, with a maximum of 1-2 hours of warm sector over land from southeast VA into the eastern Carolinas this morning. Weak instability, perhaps up to 250 J/kg, may briefly support a few strong storms near the low or just south prior to moving offshore. Gusty winds may accompany any frontal convection as low-level SRH weakens due to the rapidly veering surface flow. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/28/2024 Read more

MD 0096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Areas affected...Carolina Piedmont Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 280044Z - 280245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms, with some low risk for a brief tornado or wind gust, will be noted across the Carolina Piedmont region this evening. DISCUSSION...Midlevel speed max is rotating through the base of the MS Valley trough and should translate across the southern Appalachians into the Piedmont region later tonight. In response to this feature, LLJ will increase markedly across SC into western VA by 06z which should encourage a slow northward advance of the warm front across this region. Latest diagnostic data suggests the boundary is currently draped from near FAY-CAE-Edgefield County SC. Continued recovery is expected across NC as the LLJ strengthens over the next few hours. Over the last few hours, several weak supercells have developed within the warm advection zone. This activity should remain focused across the Carolina Piedmont, especially along/just north of the aforementioned warm front. Any supercells that mature near the boundary could generate locally strong winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. However, current trends do not suggest the overall severe threat will warrant a watch. Will continue to monitor this region. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34198226 34718093 35408006 34967930 34008045 33578200 34198226 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible through tonight over parts of the Carolinas. A few damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur late into North Carolina. ...Central SC across central and north-central NC... Sporadic strong storms are ongoing near a warm front extending from the GA/SC border into south-central NC. While widespread rain is occurring north of the boundary within a cooler air mass, mid 60s F dewpoints exist to the south. As the left-exit region of the upper jet affects the region later tonight, there is some potential for the northward advection of unstable air, potentially resulting in isolated supercells ahead of the deepening surface low. The GSO sounding at 00Z is clearly stable, exhibiting an isothermal layer through 850 mb. However, strengthening shear profiles along with cooling aloft may result in destabilization tonight as the surface low deepens and moves northeastward along the boundary. Though a small area of potential, any cells interacting with the 60s F dewpoints in a recovering air mass scenario could yield a tornado. For short-term details, refer to MD #0096. ..Jewell.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible through tonight over parts of the Carolinas. A few damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur late into North Carolina. ...Central SC across central and north-central NC... Sporadic strong storms are ongoing near a warm front extending from the GA/SC border into south-central NC. While widespread rain is occurring north of the boundary within a cooler air mass, mid 60s F dewpoints exist to the south. As the left-exit region of the upper jet affects the region later tonight, there is some potential for the northward advection of unstable air, potentially resulting in isolated supercells ahead of the deepening surface low. The GSO sounding at 00Z is clearly stable, exhibiting an isothermal layer through 850 mb. However, strengthening shear profiles along with cooling aloft may result in destabilization tonight as the surface low deepens and moves northeastward along the boundary. Though a small area of potential, any cells interacting with the 60s F dewpoints in a recovering air mass scenario could yield a tornado. For short-term details, refer to MD #0096. ..Jewell.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible through tonight over parts of the Carolinas. A few damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur late into North Carolina. ...Central SC across central and north-central NC... Sporadic strong storms are ongoing near a warm front extending from the GA/SC border into south-central NC. While widespread rain is occurring north of the boundary within a cooler air mass, mid 60s F dewpoints exist to the south. As the left-exit region of the upper jet affects the region later tonight, there is some potential for the northward advection of unstable air, potentially resulting in isolated supercells ahead of the deepening surface low. The GSO sounding at 00Z is clearly stable, exhibiting an isothermal layer through 850 mb. However, strengthening shear profiles along with cooling aloft may result in destabilization tonight as the surface low deepens and moves northeastward along the boundary. Though a small area of potential, any cells interacting with the 60s F dewpoints in a recovering air mass scenario could yield a tornado. For short-term details, refer to MD #0096. ..Jewell.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible through tonight over parts of the Carolinas. A few damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur late into North Carolina. ...Central SC across central and north-central NC... Sporadic strong storms are ongoing near a warm front extending from the GA/SC border into south-central NC. While widespread rain is occurring north of the boundary within a cooler air mass, mid 60s F dewpoints exist to the south. As the left-exit region of the upper jet affects the region later tonight, there is some potential for the northward advection of unstable air, potentially resulting in isolated supercells ahead of the deepening surface low. The GSO sounding at 00Z is clearly stable, exhibiting an isothermal layer through 850 mb. However, strengthening shear profiles along with cooling aloft may result in destabilization tonight as the surface low deepens and moves northeastward along the boundary. Though a small area of potential, any cells interacting with the 60s F dewpoints in a recovering air mass scenario could yield a tornado. For short-term details, refer to MD #0096. ..Jewell.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible through tonight over parts of the Carolinas. A few damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur late into North Carolina. ...Central SC across central and north-central NC... Sporadic strong storms are ongoing near a warm front extending from the GA/SC border into south-central NC. While widespread rain is occurring north of the boundary within a cooler air mass, mid 60s F dewpoints exist to the south. As the left-exit region of the upper jet affects the region later tonight, there is some potential for the northward advection of unstable air, potentially resulting in isolated supercells ahead of the deepening surface low. The GSO sounding at 00Z is clearly stable, exhibiting an isothermal layer through 850 mb. However, strengthening shear profiles along with cooling aloft may result in destabilization tonight as the surface low deepens and moves northeastward along the boundary. Though a small area of potential, any cells interacting with the 60s F dewpoints in a recovering air mass scenario could yield a tornado. For short-term details, refer to MD #0096. ..Jewell.. 01/28/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 27 23:27:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 27 23:27:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0095 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 12... FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle and far southwest Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 12... Valid 272152Z - 272315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 12 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts remain possible across portions of Tornado Watch 12 for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...KTLH radar data shows a loosely organized convective line tracking eastward across the eastern portion of the FL Panhandle at around 45 kt this afternoon. Peak gusts associated with this line of storms have been in the 40-50 mph range, primarily focused over coastal areas where surface-based buoyancy has been greatest (albeit weak). 40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per KTLH VWP data) oriented oblique to the leading-edge gust front should continue favoring an organized linear structure with embedded stronger/deeper cores. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates and weak inland buoyancy, this favorable deep-layer shear and established cold pool should support a continued risk of strong to locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief/weak tornado as the line continues eastward over the next few hours. ..Weinman.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 29928460 30398469 30778469 30918461 31018431 31008391 30898360 30528349 29948362 29728382 29738430 29928460 Read more