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1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A dry continental airmass will be in place east of the Rockies early
Tuesday morning. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress
southwestward from the Upper Midwest through the OH and TN Valley
and into the southern Appalachians. An attendant surface low and
associated cold front will move southeastward in tandem with the
shortwave as well. Airmass modification ahead of this system will be
limited, with any notable low-level moisture remaining well
offshore. Even so, cold mid-level temperatures could result in
modest buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes,
particularly from the Carolina Piedmont into northeast GA. However,
coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
Secondary surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast
early Wednesday morning, with related warm-air advection
contributing to some potential for elevated thunderstorms and
isolated lightning flashes offshore.
Farther west, a deep cyclone is forecast to move eastward towards
the West Coast, while a pair of shortwave troughs eject through its
eastern periphery into the Pacific Northwest. Primary frontal band
is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Some limited elevated
buoyancy is possible within this band, contributing to deeper
convection element and the chance for a lightning flash or two.
However, overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain below 10%.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A dry continental airmass will be in place east of the Rockies early
Tuesday morning. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress
southwestward from the Upper Midwest through the OH and TN Valley
and into the southern Appalachians. An attendant surface low and
associated cold front will move southeastward in tandem with the
shortwave as well. Airmass modification ahead of this system will be
limited, with any notable low-level moisture remaining well
offshore. Even so, cold mid-level temperatures could result in
modest buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes,
particularly from the Carolina Piedmont into northeast GA. However,
coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
Secondary surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast
early Wednesday morning, with related warm-air advection
contributing to some potential for elevated thunderstorms and
isolated lightning flashes offshore.
Farther west, a deep cyclone is forecast to move eastward towards
the West Coast, while a pair of shortwave troughs eject through its
eastern periphery into the Pacific Northwest. Primary frontal band
is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Some limited elevated
buoyancy is possible within this band, contributing to deeper
convection element and the chance for a lightning flash or two.
However, overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain below 10%.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A dry continental airmass will be in place east of the Rockies early
Tuesday morning. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress
southwestward from the Upper Midwest through the OH and TN Valley
and into the southern Appalachians. An attendant surface low and
associated cold front will move southeastward in tandem with the
shortwave as well. Airmass modification ahead of this system will be
limited, with any notable low-level moisture remaining well
offshore. Even so, cold mid-level temperatures could result in
modest buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes,
particularly from the Carolina Piedmont into northeast GA. However,
coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
Secondary surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast
early Wednesday morning, with related warm-air advection
contributing to some potential for elevated thunderstorms and
isolated lightning flashes offshore.
Farther west, a deep cyclone is forecast to move eastward towards
the West Coast, while a pair of shortwave troughs eject through its
eastern periphery into the Pacific Northwest. Primary frontal band
is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Some limited elevated
buoyancy is possible within this band, contributing to deeper
convection element and the chance for a lightning flash or two.
However, overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain below 10%.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A dry continental airmass will be in place east of the Rockies early
Tuesday morning. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress
southwestward from the Upper Midwest through the OH and TN Valley
and into the southern Appalachians. An attendant surface low and
associated cold front will move southeastward in tandem with the
shortwave as well. Airmass modification ahead of this system will be
limited, with any notable low-level moisture remaining well
offshore. Even so, cold mid-level temperatures could result in
modest buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes,
particularly from the Carolina Piedmont into northeast GA. However,
coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
Secondary surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast
early Wednesday morning, with related warm-air advection
contributing to some potential for elevated thunderstorms and
isolated lightning flashes offshore.
Farther west, a deep cyclone is forecast to move eastward towards
the West Coast, while a pair of shortwave troughs eject through its
eastern periphery into the Pacific Northwest. Primary frontal band
is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Some limited elevated
buoyancy is possible within this band, contributing to deeper
convection element and the chance for a lightning flash or two.
However, overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain below 10%.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A dry continental airmass will be in place east of the Rockies early
Tuesday morning. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress
southwestward from the Upper Midwest through the OH and TN Valley
and into the southern Appalachians. An attendant surface low and
associated cold front will move southeastward in tandem with the
shortwave as well. Airmass modification ahead of this system will be
limited, with any notable low-level moisture remaining well
offshore. Even so, cold mid-level temperatures could result in
modest buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes,
particularly from the Carolina Piedmont into northeast GA. However,
coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
Secondary surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast
early Wednesday morning, with related warm-air advection
contributing to some potential for elevated thunderstorms and
isolated lightning flashes offshore.
Farther west, a deep cyclone is forecast to move eastward towards
the West Coast, while a pair of shortwave troughs eject through its
eastern periphery into the Pacific Northwest. Primary frontal band
is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Some limited elevated
buoyancy is possible within this band, contributing to deeper
convection element and the chance for a lightning flash or two.
However, overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain below 10%.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
..Weinman/Hart.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and
latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather
potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion
(below) remain on track.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners
vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in
the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the
southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of
the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is
poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue
to minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and
latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather
potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion
(below) remain on track.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners
vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in
the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the
southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of
the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is
poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue
to minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and
latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather
potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion
(below) remain on track.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners
vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in
the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the
southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of
the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is
poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue
to minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and
latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather
potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion
(below) remain on track.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners
vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in
the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the
southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of
the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is
poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue
to minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and
latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather
potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion
(below) remain on track.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners
vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in
the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the
southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of
the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is
poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue
to minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No forecast changes are needed. Morning surface observations and
latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low fire weather
potential. Forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion
(below) remain on track.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners
vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in
the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the
southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of
the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is
poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue
to minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern will remain unsuitable for deep moist
convection through the period over most of the CONUS. A strong,
synoptic-scale trough -- now exiting the East Coast, has been
preceded by a surface cold front leaving a cool, stable boundary
layer behind it, east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a high-amplitude
ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Intermountain West,
Great Basin and northern Rockies.
A northern-stream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel
imagery over MB -- is forecast to dig southeastward to the Upper
Great Lakes and mid/upper parts of the Mississippi Valley overnight.
This feature will be preceded by a strengthening low-level cold
front and large-scale lift aloft. An associated band of precip --
with embedded, weak, mainly midlevel convection -- should cross
parts of MI/Lake Michigan/IL overnight, reaching northern IN by 12Z.
While some forecast soundings indicate very weak elevated MUCAPE
(less than 100 J/kg) in roughly the 600-500-mb layer, any lighting
potential appears too uncertain and isolated for an unconditional,
10% general-thunder area.
..Edwards.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern will remain unsuitable for deep moist
convection through the period over most of the CONUS. A strong,
synoptic-scale trough -- now exiting the East Coast, has been
preceded by a surface cold front leaving a cool, stable boundary
layer behind it, east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a high-amplitude
ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Intermountain West,
Great Basin and northern Rockies.
A northern-stream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel
imagery over MB -- is forecast to dig southeastward to the Upper
Great Lakes and mid/upper parts of the Mississippi Valley overnight.
This feature will be preceded by a strengthening low-level cold
front and large-scale lift aloft. An associated band of precip --
with embedded, weak, mainly midlevel convection -- should cross
parts of MI/Lake Michigan/IL overnight, reaching northern IN by 12Z.
While some forecast soundings indicate very weak elevated MUCAPE
(less than 100 J/kg) in roughly the 600-500-mb layer, any lighting
potential appears too uncertain and isolated for an unconditional,
10% general-thunder area.
..Edwards.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern will remain unsuitable for deep moist
convection through the period over most of the CONUS. A strong,
synoptic-scale trough -- now exiting the East Coast, has been
preceded by a surface cold front leaving a cool, stable boundary
layer behind it, east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a high-amplitude
ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Intermountain West,
Great Basin and northern Rockies.
A northern-stream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel
imagery over MB -- is forecast to dig southeastward to the Upper
Great Lakes and mid/upper parts of the Mississippi Valley overnight.
This feature will be preceded by a strengthening low-level cold
front and large-scale lift aloft. An associated band of precip --
with embedded, weak, mainly midlevel convection -- should cross
parts of MI/Lake Michigan/IL overnight, reaching northern IN by 12Z.
While some forecast soundings indicate very weak elevated MUCAPE
(less than 100 J/kg) in roughly the 600-500-mb layer, any lighting
potential appears too uncertain and isolated for an unconditional,
10% general-thunder area.
..Edwards.. 01/29/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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