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1 year 6 months ago
No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 29 23:36:02 UTC 2024.
1 year 6 months ago
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 29 23:36:02 UTC 2024.
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
Fire weather potential through the work week remains limited, though
regional concerns may emerge across southwest Texas by next weekend.
Latest long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably
good agreement in the maintenance of an upper ridge over the
Intermountain West and Plains through the middle of the work week.
This pattern will favor dry conditions across the central U.S. while
southwesterly flow along the West Coast and a shortwave trough
across the OH River Valley/Southeast introduce precipitation chances
elsewhere. A persistent west/northwest flow regime is expected to
promote unseasonably warm temperatures across the Plains that may
result in some fuel drying through the week, though winds are
forecast to remain sufficiently light to preclude fire concerns.
Heading into the upcoming weekend, long-range guidance depicts a
subtropical jet extension nosing into northern Mexico/southern TX.
This should support lee troughing/cyclogenesis across the southern
High Plains with breezy westerly winds across southern NM into
southwest TX. Deterministic solutions have come into better
agreement regarding this scenario, and the probability for at least
elevated (to possibly critical) fire weather conditions across
southwest TX has increased in latest ensemble guidance. Fuels across
this region are currently not receptive, but may trend drier prior
to this weekend. Forecast and fuel trends will be monitored in
subsequent outlooks for an increasing fire weather threat.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
Fire weather potential through the work week remains limited, though
regional concerns may emerge across southwest Texas by next weekend.
Latest long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably
good agreement in the maintenance of an upper ridge over the
Intermountain West and Plains through the middle of the work week.
This pattern will favor dry conditions across the central U.S. while
southwesterly flow along the West Coast and a shortwave trough
across the OH River Valley/Southeast introduce precipitation chances
elsewhere. A persistent west/northwest flow regime is expected to
promote unseasonably warm temperatures across the Plains that may
result in some fuel drying through the week, though winds are
forecast to remain sufficiently light to preclude fire concerns.
Heading into the upcoming weekend, long-range guidance depicts a
subtropical jet extension nosing into northern Mexico/southern TX.
This should support lee troughing/cyclogenesis across the southern
High Plains with breezy westerly winds across southern NM into
southwest TX. Deterministic solutions have come into better
agreement regarding this scenario, and the probability for at least
elevated (to possibly critical) fire weather conditions across
southwest TX has increased in latest ensemble guidance. Fuels across
this region are currently not receptive, but may trend drier prior
to this weekend. Forecast and fuel trends will be monitored in
subsequent outlooks for an increasing fire weather threat.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
Fire weather potential through the work week remains limited, though
regional concerns may emerge across southwest Texas by next weekend.
Latest long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably
good agreement in the maintenance of an upper ridge over the
Intermountain West and Plains through the middle of the work week.
This pattern will favor dry conditions across the central U.S. while
southwesterly flow along the West Coast and a shortwave trough
across the OH River Valley/Southeast introduce precipitation chances
elsewhere. A persistent west/northwest flow regime is expected to
promote unseasonably warm temperatures across the Plains that may
result in some fuel drying through the week, though winds are
forecast to remain sufficiently light to preclude fire concerns.
Heading into the upcoming weekend, long-range guidance depicts a
subtropical jet extension nosing into northern Mexico/southern TX.
This should support lee troughing/cyclogenesis across the southern
High Plains with breezy westerly winds across southern NM into
southwest TX. Deterministic solutions have come into better
agreement regarding this scenario, and the probability for at least
elevated (to possibly critical) fire weather conditions across
southwest TX has increased in latest ensemble guidance. Fuels across
this region are currently not receptive, but may trend drier prior
to this weekend. Forecast and fuel trends will be monitored in
subsequent outlooks for an increasing fire weather threat.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
Fire weather potential through the work week remains limited, though
regional concerns may emerge across southwest Texas by next weekend.
Latest long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably
good agreement in the maintenance of an upper ridge over the
Intermountain West and Plains through the middle of the work week.
This pattern will favor dry conditions across the central U.S. while
southwesterly flow along the West Coast and a shortwave trough
across the OH River Valley/Southeast introduce precipitation chances
elsewhere. A persistent west/northwest flow regime is expected to
promote unseasonably warm temperatures across the Plains that may
result in some fuel drying through the week, though winds are
forecast to remain sufficiently light to preclude fire concerns.
Heading into the upcoming weekend, long-range guidance depicts a
subtropical jet extension nosing into northern Mexico/southern TX.
This should support lee troughing/cyclogenesis across the southern
High Plains with breezy westerly winds across southern NM into
southwest TX. Deterministic solutions have come into better
agreement regarding this scenario, and the probability for at least
elevated (to possibly critical) fire weather conditions across
southwest TX has increased in latest ensemble guidance. Fuels across
this region are currently not receptive, but may trend drier prior
to this weekend. Forecast and fuel trends will be monitored in
subsequent outlooks for an increasing fire weather threat.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous outlook.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous outlook.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous outlook.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous outlook.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous outlook.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous outlook.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified
upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern
CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal
air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies.
Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental
polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude
thunderstorms west of the Rockies.
While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will
track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated
instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of
low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See the
previous discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the
Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern
High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions
are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again,
winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be
poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See the
previous discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the
Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern
High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions
are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again,
winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be
poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See the
previous discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the
Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern
High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions
are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again,
winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be
poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See the
previous discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the
Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern
High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions
are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again,
winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be
poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See the
previous discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the
Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern
High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions
are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again,
winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be
poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See the
previous discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 01/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the
Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern
High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions
are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again,
winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be
poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A dry continental airmass will be in place east of the Rockies early
Tuesday morning. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress
southwestward from the Upper Midwest through the OH and TN Valley
and into the southern Appalachians. An attendant surface low and
associated cold front will move southeastward in tandem with the
shortwave as well. Airmass modification ahead of this system will be
limited, with any notable low-level moisture remaining well
offshore. Even so, cold mid-level temperatures could result in
modest buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes,
particularly from the Carolina Piedmont into northeast GA. However,
coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
Secondary surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast
early Wednesday morning, with related warm-air advection
contributing to some potential for elevated thunderstorms and
isolated lightning flashes offshore.
Farther west, a deep cyclone is forecast to move eastward towards
the West Coast, while a pair of shortwave troughs eject through its
eastern periphery into the Pacific Northwest. Primary frontal band
is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Some limited elevated
buoyancy is possible within this band, contributing to deeper
convection element and the chance for a lightning flash or two.
However, overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain below 10%.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A dry continental airmass will be in place east of the Rockies early
Tuesday morning. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress
southwestward from the Upper Midwest through the OH and TN Valley
and into the southern Appalachians. An attendant surface low and
associated cold front will move southeastward in tandem with the
shortwave as well. Airmass modification ahead of this system will be
limited, with any notable low-level moisture remaining well
offshore. Even so, cold mid-level temperatures could result in
modest buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes,
particularly from the Carolina Piedmont into northeast GA. However,
coverage is expected to remain below 10%.
Secondary surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina coast
early Wednesday morning, with related warm-air advection
contributing to some potential for elevated thunderstorms and
isolated lightning flashes offshore.
Farther west, a deep cyclone is forecast to move eastward towards
the West Coast, while a pair of shortwave troughs eject through its
eastern periphery into the Pacific Northwest. Primary frontal band
is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Some limited elevated
buoyancy is possible within this band, contributing to deeper
convection element and the chance for a lightning flash or two.
However, overall coverage of thunderstorms should remain below 10%.
..Mosier.. 01/29/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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