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1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the
California Coast.
...01z Update...
Earlier thoughts regarding the possibility for isolated
thunderstorms along the CA Coast remain.
00z soundings along the CA Coast have yet to moisten and/or steepen
in response to the approaching midlevel trough. However, later
tonight large-scale ascent should contribute to moistening such that
profiles should become weakly buoyant as soundings cool aloft and
lapse rates steepen. At that time weak convection is expected to
develop and the deepest updrafts may generate lightning. Even so,
thunderstorms should remain isolated.
..Darrow.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the
California Coast.
...01z Update...
Earlier thoughts regarding the possibility for isolated
thunderstorms along the CA Coast remain.
00z soundings along the CA Coast have yet to moisten and/or steepen
in response to the approaching midlevel trough. However, later
tonight large-scale ascent should contribute to moistening such that
profiles should become weakly buoyant as soundings cool aloft and
lapse rates steepen. At that time weak convection is expected to
develop and the deepest updrafts may generate lightning. Even so,
thunderstorms should remain isolated.
..Darrow.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the
California Coast.
...01z Update...
Earlier thoughts regarding the possibility for isolated
thunderstorms along the CA Coast remain.
00z soundings along the CA Coast have yet to moisten and/or steepen
in response to the approaching midlevel trough. However, later
tonight large-scale ascent should contribute to moistening such that
profiles should become weakly buoyant as soundings cool aloft and
lapse rates steepen. At that time weak convection is expected to
develop and the deepest updrafts may generate lightning. Even so,
thunderstorms should remain isolated.
..Darrow.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 31 23:39:02 UTC 2024.
1 year 6 months ago
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 31 23:39:02 UTC 2024.
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the
extended period with the exception of southwest TX this weekend. The
upper ridge over the central CONUS will continue to promote warm and
dry conditions across the middle portion of the country through the
end of the work week. The gradual breakdown of this feature through
the weekend and into early next week is expected to usher in
precipitation chances for most locations with the exception of the
Midwest/Upper OH River Valley where long-range ensembles show
limited potential for wetting rainfall (or snow water equivalent)
amounts. These rain/snow chances, combined with cool conditions and
unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire weather concerns (with the
exception of southwest TX).
...D4/Saturday - Southwest Texas...
Ensemble guidance maintains good agreement in the overall synoptic
evolution as a sub-tropic jet pushes into northern Mexico/southern
TX by late Friday. Strong lee cyclogenesis over the southern High
Plains is anticipated, which should promote strong westerly
downslope winds across southern NM into the Trans Pecos region of
southwest TX. Confidence in critical wind speeds (>20 mph) has
increased as most ensemble/deterministic solutions - including
typically more conservative guidance - depict widespread 20-35 mph
winds. Although confidence in strong winds is relatively high, fuel
status across the region is currently not receptive with ERCs below
the 50th percentile, and light/scattered rain showers on Friday may
further inhibit fuel status. Additionally, confidence in reaching
critical RH thresholds is limited per ensemble probabilities.
Despite the strong winds, the fuel and RH concerns limit confidence
in a robust fire weather threat, though trends will continue to be
monitored.
..Moore.. 01/31/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the
extended period with the exception of southwest TX this weekend. The
upper ridge over the central CONUS will continue to promote warm and
dry conditions across the middle portion of the country through the
end of the work week. The gradual breakdown of this feature through
the weekend and into early next week is expected to usher in
precipitation chances for most locations with the exception of the
Midwest/Upper OH River Valley where long-range ensembles show
limited potential for wetting rainfall (or snow water equivalent)
amounts. These rain/snow chances, combined with cool conditions and
unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire weather concerns (with the
exception of southwest TX).
...D4/Saturday - Southwest Texas...
Ensemble guidance maintains good agreement in the overall synoptic
evolution as a sub-tropic jet pushes into northern Mexico/southern
TX by late Friday. Strong lee cyclogenesis over the southern High
Plains is anticipated, which should promote strong westerly
downslope winds across southern NM into the Trans Pecos region of
southwest TX. Confidence in critical wind speeds (>20 mph) has
increased as most ensemble/deterministic solutions - including
typically more conservative guidance - depict widespread 20-35 mph
winds. Although confidence in strong winds is relatively high, fuel
status across the region is currently not receptive with ERCs below
the 50th percentile, and light/scattered rain showers on Friday may
further inhibit fuel status. Additionally, confidence in reaching
critical RH thresholds is limited per ensemble probabilities.
Despite the strong winds, the fuel and RH concerns limit confidence
in a robust fire weather threat, though trends will continue to be
monitored.
..Moore.. 01/31/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the
extended period with the exception of southwest TX this weekend. The
upper ridge over the central CONUS will continue to promote warm and
dry conditions across the middle portion of the country through the
end of the work week. The gradual breakdown of this feature through
the weekend and into early next week is expected to usher in
precipitation chances for most locations with the exception of the
Midwest/Upper OH River Valley where long-range ensembles show
limited potential for wetting rainfall (or snow water equivalent)
amounts. These rain/snow chances, combined with cool conditions and
unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire weather concerns (with the
exception of southwest TX).
...D4/Saturday - Southwest Texas...
Ensemble guidance maintains good agreement in the overall synoptic
evolution as a sub-tropic jet pushes into northern Mexico/southern
TX by late Friday. Strong lee cyclogenesis over the southern High
Plains is anticipated, which should promote strong westerly
downslope winds across southern NM into the Trans Pecos region of
southwest TX. Confidence in critical wind speeds (>20 mph) has
increased as most ensemble/deterministic solutions - including
typically more conservative guidance - depict widespread 20-35 mph
winds. Although confidence in strong winds is relatively high, fuel
status across the region is currently not receptive with ERCs below
the 50th percentile, and light/scattered rain showers on Friday may
further inhibit fuel status. Additionally, confidence in reaching
critical RH thresholds is limited per ensemble probabilities.
Despite the strong winds, the fuel and RH concerns limit confidence
in a robust fire weather threat, though trends will continue to be
monitored.
..Moore.. 01/31/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 021200Z - 081200Z
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the
extended period with the exception of southwest TX this weekend. The
upper ridge over the central CONUS will continue to promote warm and
dry conditions across the middle portion of the country through the
end of the work week. The gradual breakdown of this feature through
the weekend and into early next week is expected to usher in
precipitation chances for most locations with the exception of the
Midwest/Upper OH River Valley where long-range ensembles show
limited potential for wetting rainfall (or snow water equivalent)
amounts. These rain/snow chances, combined with cool conditions and
unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire weather concerns (with the
exception of southwest TX).
...D4/Saturday - Southwest Texas...
Ensemble guidance maintains good agreement in the overall synoptic
evolution as a sub-tropic jet pushes into northern Mexico/southern
TX by late Friday. Strong lee cyclogenesis over the southern High
Plains is anticipated, which should promote strong westerly
downslope winds across southern NM into the Trans Pecos region of
southwest TX. Confidence in critical wind speeds (>20 mph) has
increased as most ensemble/deterministic solutions - including
typically more conservative guidance - depict widespread 20-35 mph
winds. Although confidence in strong winds is relatively high, fuel
status across the region is currently not receptive with ERCs below
the 50th percentile, and light/scattered rain showers on Friday may
further inhibit fuel status. Additionally, confidence in reaching
critical RH thresholds is limited per ensemble probabilities.
Despite the strong winds, the fuel and RH concerns limit confidence
in a robust fire weather threat, though trends will continue to be
monitored.
..Moore.. 01/31/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the
California Coast.
...20Z Update...
Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight
as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular
convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA.
..Mosier.. 01/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/
...CA Coast...
A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today,
with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation
is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support
organized thunderstorm activity.
Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will
result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a
risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection.
This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are
expected.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the
California Coast.
...20Z Update...
Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight
as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular
convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA.
..Mosier.. 01/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/
...CA Coast...
A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today,
with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation
is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support
organized thunderstorm activity.
Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will
result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a
risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection.
This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are
expected.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the
California Coast.
...20Z Update...
Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight
as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular
convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA.
..Mosier.. 01/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/
...CA Coast...
A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today,
with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation
is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support
organized thunderstorm activity.
Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will
result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a
risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection.
This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are
expected.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the
California Coast.
...20Z Update...
Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight
as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular
convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA.
..Mosier.. 01/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/
...CA Coast...
A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today,
with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation
is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support
organized thunderstorm activity.
Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will
result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a
risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection.
This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are
expected.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the
California Coast.
...20Z Update...
Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight
as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular
convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA.
..Mosier.. 01/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/
...CA Coast...
A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today,
with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation
is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support
organized thunderstorm activity.
Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will
result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a
risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection.
This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are
expected.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the
California Coast.
...20Z Update...
Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight
as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular
convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA.
..Mosier.. 01/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/
...CA Coast...
A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today,
with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation
is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support
organized thunderstorm activity.
Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will
result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a
risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection.
This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are
expected.
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across
the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger
surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire
weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details.
..Moore.. 01/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/
...Synopsis...
As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly
deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains.
Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though
the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east.
Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at
or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without
more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological
conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across
the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger
surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire
weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details.
..Moore.. 01/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/
...Synopsis...
As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly
deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains.
Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though
the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east.
Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at
or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without
more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological
conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across
the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger
surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire
weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details.
..Moore.. 01/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/
...Synopsis...
As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly
deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains.
Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though
the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east.
Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at
or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without
more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological
conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across
the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger
surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire
weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details.
..Moore.. 01/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/
...Synopsis...
As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly
deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains.
Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though
the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east.
Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at
or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without
more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological
conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across
the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger
surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire
weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details.
..Moore.. 01/31/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/
...Synopsis...
As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly
deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains.
Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though
the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east.
Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at
or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without
more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological
conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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