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1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX
AND ALONG THE LA COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over
southeast Texas and along the Louisiana coast.
...Southeast TX and far southern LA...
Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning near
the Middle to Upper TX Coast. Widespread convection expected in TX
on D2 appears unlikely to clear the coast before 12Z Saturday. The
plume of surface-based instability ahead of this activity should be
centered from Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf, with a
gradient of diminishing values to the northeast where surface dew
points fall to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear
should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief
tornado, before surface-based convection becomes confined to the
Gulf towards midday. The intrusion of surface-based instability in
LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given
minimal surface heating, amid widespread rain/clouds during the day.
Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be
possible along the surface trough extending southeast of the primary
occluded cyclone over the TX Panhandle. Guidance appears fairly
aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer heating in the wake of
morning coastal convection. If this indeed occurs, it should be
coincident with mid to upper 50s surface dew points and steepening
mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough. This
could foster a threat for isolated severe hail, with low confidence
in the north-northwest extent of this potential across east TX.
..Grams.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX
AND ALONG THE LA COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over
southeast Texas and along the Louisiana coast.
...Southeast TX and far southern LA...
Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning near
the Middle to Upper TX Coast. Widespread convection expected in TX
on D2 appears unlikely to clear the coast before 12Z Saturday. The
plume of surface-based instability ahead of this activity should be
centered from Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf, with a
gradient of diminishing values to the northeast where surface dew
points fall to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear
should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief
tornado, before surface-based convection becomes confined to the
Gulf towards midday. The intrusion of surface-based instability in
LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given
minimal surface heating, amid widespread rain/clouds during the day.
Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be
possible along the surface trough extending southeast of the primary
occluded cyclone over the TX Panhandle. Guidance appears fairly
aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer heating in the wake of
morning coastal convection. If this indeed occurs, it should be
coincident with mid to upper 50s surface dew points and steepening
mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough. This
could foster a threat for isolated severe hail, with low confidence
in the north-northwest extent of this potential across east TX.
..Grams.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into
parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will
develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains
will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around
20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud
cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across
the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and
Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds,
the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep
fire weather concerns low.
..Wendt.. 02/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into
parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will
develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains
will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around
20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud
cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across
the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and
Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds,
the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep
fire weather concerns low.
..Wendt.. 02/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into
parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will
develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains
will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around
20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud
cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across
the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and
Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds,
the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep
fire weather concerns low.
..Wendt.. 02/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into
parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will
develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains
will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around
20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud
cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across
the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and
Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds,
the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep
fire weather concerns low.
..Wendt.. 02/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough extending from the broader cyclonic flow off the
West Coast will pivot through the Southwest to near the Four Corners
by late tonight/early Friday. The flow increase across the southern
Rockies will promote a modestly deep lee trough in the
central/southern High Plains. While some cloud cover will be
possible and limit RH reductions, a few areas could approach 20% by
the afternoon. Winds will also be modest at around 15 to perhaps
locally 20 mph. Coupled with continued marginally dry fuels, fire
weather concerns will be low.
..Wendt.. 02/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough extending from the broader cyclonic flow off the
West Coast will pivot through the Southwest to near the Four Corners
by late tonight/early Friday. The flow increase across the southern
Rockies will promote a modestly deep lee trough in the
central/southern High Plains. While some cloud cover will be
possible and limit RH reductions, a few areas could approach 20% by
the afternoon. Winds will also be modest at around 15 to perhaps
locally 20 mph. Coupled with continued marginally dry fuels, fire
weather concerns will be low.
..Wendt.. 02/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough extending from the broader cyclonic flow off the
West Coast will pivot through the Southwest to near the Four Corners
by late tonight/early Friday. The flow increase across the southern
Rockies will promote a modestly deep lee trough in the
central/southern High Plains. While some cloud cover will be
possible and limit RH reductions, a few areas could approach 20% by
the afternoon. Winds will also be modest at around 15 to perhaps
locally 20 mph. Coupled with continued marginally dry fuels, fire
weather concerns will be low.
..Wendt.. 02/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough extending from the broader cyclonic flow off the
West Coast will pivot through the Southwest to near the Four Corners
by late tonight/early Friday. The flow increase across the southern
Rockies will promote a modestly deep lee trough in the
central/southern High Plains. While some cloud cover will be
possible and limit RH reductions, a few areas could approach 20% by
the afternoon. Winds will also be modest at around 15 to perhaps
locally 20 mph. Coupled with continued marginally dry fuels, fire
weather concerns will be low.
..Wendt.. 02/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough extending from the broader cyclonic flow off the
West Coast will pivot through the Southwest to near the Four Corners
by late tonight/early Friday. The flow increase across the southern
Rockies will promote a modestly deep lee trough in the
central/southern High Plains. While some cloud cover will be
possible and limit RH reductions, a few areas could approach 20% by
the afternoon. Winds will also be modest at around 15 to perhaps
locally 20 mph. Coupled with continued marginally dry fuels, fire
weather concerns will be low.
..Wendt.. 02/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF TX
AND WESTERN OK...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late
afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains.
...TX to western OK...
Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from mid afternoon to
evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region
of a very fast upper jet overspreading much of the international
border with northern Mexico through 12Z Saturday. While intense
mid-level winds will remain displaced south of the upper jet deeper
into northern Mexico, a lobe of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies should
accompany the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse from the
Lower CO Valley to the southern High Plains. Guidance does have
greater-than-typical spread for the D2 time frame with the amplitude
of the jetlet(s) spreading into TX by Friday evening. These
differences are enough to defer on highlighting any mesoscale
corridors of cat 2-SLGT risk, especially where supercell potential
should be conditionally maximized Friday night in south TX.
Primary categorical adjustment with this outlook is to expand the
cat 1-MRGL risk farther northwest, given the signal for mid- to
late-afternoon thunderstorm development in northwest TX to western
OK. The 03Z RAP is relatively aggressive with the degree of
boundary-layer moistening and corresponding MLCAPE plume developing
this far northwestward. Bulk of guidance suggests this region should
remain on the periphery of the modified moisture return, which was
characterized by mean mixing ratios near 9 g/kg in the 00Z BRO
sounding. Despite a predominantly meridional deep-layer wind
profile, adequate hodograph curvature could support a couple
supercells with severe hail as the primary threat.
Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should
initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with
more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold
front ejects east. As this impinges on the modest buoyancy plume
characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a threat for isolated
severe hail and locally strong to marginal severe gusts should
occur. This activity will likely spread east across central TX,
while downstream storms also form during the evening/night given the
favorable large-scale ascent. The tail end of strengthening
low-level south-southwesterlies, coincident with low to mid 60s
surface dew points, may also offer a lower-end threat for an
embedded supercell tornado. This may occur during the late evening
to overnight as multiple clusters spread east across a portion of
south TX towards the Middle TX Gulf Coast.
..Grams.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF TX
AND WESTERN OK...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late
afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains.
...TX to western OK...
Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from mid afternoon to
evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region
of a very fast upper jet overspreading much of the international
border with northern Mexico through 12Z Saturday. While intense
mid-level winds will remain displaced south of the upper jet deeper
into northern Mexico, a lobe of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies should
accompany the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse from the
Lower CO Valley to the southern High Plains. Guidance does have
greater-than-typical spread for the D2 time frame with the amplitude
of the jetlet(s) spreading into TX by Friday evening. These
differences are enough to defer on highlighting any mesoscale
corridors of cat 2-SLGT risk, especially where supercell potential
should be conditionally maximized Friday night in south TX.
Primary categorical adjustment with this outlook is to expand the
cat 1-MRGL risk farther northwest, given the signal for mid- to
late-afternoon thunderstorm development in northwest TX to western
OK. The 03Z RAP is relatively aggressive with the degree of
boundary-layer moistening and corresponding MLCAPE plume developing
this far northwestward. Bulk of guidance suggests this region should
remain on the periphery of the modified moisture return, which was
characterized by mean mixing ratios near 9 g/kg in the 00Z BRO
sounding. Despite a predominantly meridional deep-layer wind
profile, adequate hodograph curvature could support a couple
supercells with severe hail as the primary threat.
Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should
initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with
more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold
front ejects east. As this impinges on the modest buoyancy plume
characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a threat for isolated
severe hail and locally strong to marginal severe gusts should
occur. This activity will likely spread east across central TX,
while downstream storms also form during the evening/night given the
favorable large-scale ascent. The tail end of strengthening
low-level south-southwesterlies, coincident with low to mid 60s
surface dew points, may also offer a lower-end threat for an
embedded supercell tornado. This may occur during the late evening
to overnight as multiple clusters spread east across a portion of
south TX towards the Middle TX Gulf Coast.
..Grams.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF TX
AND WESTERN OK...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late
afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains.
...TX to western OK...
Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from mid afternoon to
evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region
of a very fast upper jet overspreading much of the international
border with northern Mexico through 12Z Saturday. While intense
mid-level winds will remain displaced south of the upper jet deeper
into northern Mexico, a lobe of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies should
accompany the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse from the
Lower CO Valley to the southern High Plains. Guidance does have
greater-than-typical spread for the D2 time frame with the amplitude
of the jetlet(s) spreading into TX by Friday evening. These
differences are enough to defer on highlighting any mesoscale
corridors of cat 2-SLGT risk, especially where supercell potential
should be conditionally maximized Friday night in south TX.
Primary categorical adjustment with this outlook is to expand the
cat 1-MRGL risk farther northwest, given the signal for mid- to
late-afternoon thunderstorm development in northwest TX to western
OK. The 03Z RAP is relatively aggressive with the degree of
boundary-layer moistening and corresponding MLCAPE plume developing
this far northwestward. Bulk of guidance suggests this region should
remain on the periphery of the modified moisture return, which was
characterized by mean mixing ratios near 9 g/kg in the 00Z BRO
sounding. Despite a predominantly meridional deep-layer wind
profile, adequate hodograph curvature could support a couple
supercells with severe hail as the primary threat.
Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should
initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with
more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold
front ejects east. As this impinges on the modest buoyancy plume
characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a threat for isolated
severe hail and locally strong to marginal severe gusts should
occur. This activity will likely spread east across central TX,
while downstream storms also form during the evening/night given the
favorable large-scale ascent. The tail end of strengthening
low-level south-southwesterlies, coincident with low to mid 60s
surface dew points, may also offer a lower-end threat for an
embedded supercell tornado. This may occur during the late evening
to overnight as multiple clusters spread east across a portion of
south TX towards the Middle TX Gulf Coast.
..Grams.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF TX
AND WESTERN OK...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late
afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains.
...TX to western OK...
Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from mid afternoon to
evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region
of a very fast upper jet overspreading much of the international
border with northern Mexico through 12Z Saturday. While intense
mid-level winds will remain displaced south of the upper jet deeper
into northern Mexico, a lobe of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies should
accompany the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse from the
Lower CO Valley to the southern High Plains. Guidance does have
greater-than-typical spread for the D2 time frame with the amplitude
of the jetlet(s) spreading into TX by Friday evening. These
differences are enough to defer on highlighting any mesoscale
corridors of cat 2-SLGT risk, especially where supercell potential
should be conditionally maximized Friday night in south TX.
Primary categorical adjustment with this outlook is to expand the
cat 1-MRGL risk farther northwest, given the signal for mid- to
late-afternoon thunderstorm development in northwest TX to western
OK. The 03Z RAP is relatively aggressive with the degree of
boundary-layer moistening and corresponding MLCAPE plume developing
this far northwestward. Bulk of guidance suggests this region should
remain on the periphery of the modified moisture return, which was
characterized by mean mixing ratios near 9 g/kg in the 00Z BRO
sounding. Despite a predominantly meridional deep-layer wind
profile, adequate hodograph curvature could support a couple
supercells with severe hail as the primary threat.
Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should
initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with
more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold
front ejects east. As this impinges on the modest buoyancy plume
characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a threat for isolated
severe hail and locally strong to marginal severe gusts should
occur. This activity will likely spread east across central TX,
while downstream storms also form during the evening/night given the
favorable large-scale ascent. The tail end of strengthening
low-level south-southwesterlies, coincident with low to mid 60s
surface dew points, may also offer a lower-end threat for an
embedded supercell tornado. This may occur during the late evening
to overnight as multiple clusters spread east across a portion of
south TX towards the Middle TX Gulf Coast.
..Grams.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the
southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward
the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant.
Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across
much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls
spread across this region. One notable surface front will move
inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of
the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored
onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic
influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across
the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to
warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the
southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward
the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant.
Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across
much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls
spread across this region. One notable surface front will move
inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of
the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored
onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic
influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across
the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to
warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the
southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward
the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant.
Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across
much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls
spread across this region. One notable surface front will move
inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of
the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored
onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic
influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across
the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to
warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the
southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward
the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant.
Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across
much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls
spread across this region. One notable surface front will move
inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of
the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored
onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic
influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across
the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to
warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the
southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward
the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant.
Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across
much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls
spread across this region. One notable surface front will move
inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of
the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored
onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic
influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across
the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to
warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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