SPC Feb 1, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND ALONG THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and along the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning near the Middle to Upper TX Coast. Widespread convection expected in TX on D2 appears unlikely to clear the coast before 12Z Saturday. The plume of surface-based instability ahead of this activity should be centered from Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf, with a gradient of diminishing values to the northeast where surface dew points fall to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection becomes confined to the Gulf towards midday. The intrusion of surface-based instability in LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal surface heating, amid widespread rain/clouds during the day. Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along the surface trough extending southeast of the primary occluded cyclone over the TX Panhandle. Guidance appears fairly aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer heating in the wake of morning coastal convection. If this indeed occurs, it should be coincident with mid to upper 50s surface dew points and steepening mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough. This could foster a threat for isolated severe hail, with low confidence in the north-northwest extent of this potential across east TX. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 1, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND ALONG THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and along the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning near the Middle to Upper TX Coast. Widespread convection expected in TX on D2 appears unlikely to clear the coast before 12Z Saturday. The plume of surface-based instability ahead of this activity should be centered from Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf, with a gradient of diminishing values to the northeast where surface dew points fall to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection becomes confined to the Gulf towards midday. The intrusion of surface-based instability in LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal surface heating, amid widespread rain/clouds during the day. Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along the surface trough extending southeast of the primary occluded cyclone over the TX Panhandle. Guidance appears fairly aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer heating in the wake of morning coastal convection. If this indeed occurs, it should be coincident with mid to upper 50s surface dew points and steepening mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough. This could foster a threat for isolated severe hail, with low confidence in the north-northwest extent of this potential across east TX. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough extending from the broader cyclonic flow off the West Coast will pivot through the Southwest to near the Four Corners by late tonight/early Friday. The flow increase across the southern Rockies will promote a modestly deep lee trough in the central/southern High Plains. While some cloud cover will be possible and limit RH reductions, a few areas could approach 20% by the afternoon. Winds will also be modest at around 15 to perhaps locally 20 mph. Coupled with continued marginally dry fuels, fire weather concerns will be low. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough extending from the broader cyclonic flow off the West Coast will pivot through the Southwest to near the Four Corners by late tonight/early Friday. The flow increase across the southern Rockies will promote a modestly deep lee trough in the central/southern High Plains. While some cloud cover will be possible and limit RH reductions, a few areas could approach 20% by the afternoon. Winds will also be modest at around 15 to perhaps locally 20 mph. Coupled with continued marginally dry fuels, fire weather concerns will be low. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough extending from the broader cyclonic flow off the West Coast will pivot through the Southwest to near the Four Corners by late tonight/early Friday. The flow increase across the southern Rockies will promote a modestly deep lee trough in the central/southern High Plains. While some cloud cover will be possible and limit RH reductions, a few areas could approach 20% by the afternoon. Winds will also be modest at around 15 to perhaps locally 20 mph. Coupled with continued marginally dry fuels, fire weather concerns will be low. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough extending from the broader cyclonic flow off the West Coast will pivot through the Southwest to near the Four Corners by late tonight/early Friday. The flow increase across the southern Rockies will promote a modestly deep lee trough in the central/southern High Plains. While some cloud cover will be possible and limit RH reductions, a few areas could approach 20% by the afternoon. Winds will also be modest at around 15 to perhaps locally 20 mph. Coupled with continued marginally dry fuels, fire weather concerns will be low. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough extending from the broader cyclonic flow off the West Coast will pivot through the Southwest to near the Four Corners by late tonight/early Friday. The flow increase across the southern Rockies will promote a modestly deep lee trough in the central/southern High Plains. While some cloud cover will be possible and limit RH reductions, a few areas could approach 20% by the afternoon. Winds will also be modest at around 15 to perhaps locally 20 mph. Coupled with continued marginally dry fuels, fire weather concerns will be low. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Feb 1, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF TX AND WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...TX to western OK... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from mid afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of a very fast upper jet overspreading much of the international border with northern Mexico through 12Z Saturday. While intense mid-level winds will remain displaced south of the upper jet deeper into northern Mexico, a lobe of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies should accompany the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse from the Lower CO Valley to the southern High Plains. Guidance does have greater-than-typical spread for the D2 time frame with the amplitude of the jetlet(s) spreading into TX by Friday evening. These differences are enough to defer on highlighting any mesoscale corridors of cat 2-SLGT risk, especially where supercell potential should be conditionally maximized Friday night in south TX. Primary categorical adjustment with this outlook is to expand the cat 1-MRGL risk farther northwest, given the signal for mid- to late-afternoon thunderstorm development in northwest TX to western OK. The 03Z RAP is relatively aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer moistening and corresponding MLCAPE plume developing this far northwestward. Bulk of guidance suggests this region should remain on the periphery of the modified moisture return, which was characterized by mean mixing ratios near 9 g/kg in the 00Z BRO sounding. Despite a predominantly meridional deep-layer wind profile, adequate hodograph curvature could support a couple supercells with severe hail as the primary threat. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front ejects east. As this impinges on the modest buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong to marginal severe gusts should occur. This activity will likely spread east across central TX, while downstream storms also form during the evening/night given the favorable large-scale ascent. The tail end of strengthening low-level south-southwesterlies, coincident with low to mid 60s surface dew points, may also offer a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado. This may occur during the late evening to overnight as multiple clusters spread east across a portion of south TX towards the Middle TX Gulf Coast. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 1, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF TX AND WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...TX to western OK... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from mid afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of a very fast upper jet overspreading much of the international border with northern Mexico through 12Z Saturday. While intense mid-level winds will remain displaced south of the upper jet deeper into northern Mexico, a lobe of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies should accompany the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse from the Lower CO Valley to the southern High Plains. Guidance does have greater-than-typical spread for the D2 time frame with the amplitude of the jetlet(s) spreading into TX by Friday evening. These differences are enough to defer on highlighting any mesoscale corridors of cat 2-SLGT risk, especially where supercell potential should be conditionally maximized Friday night in south TX. Primary categorical adjustment with this outlook is to expand the cat 1-MRGL risk farther northwest, given the signal for mid- to late-afternoon thunderstorm development in northwest TX to western OK. The 03Z RAP is relatively aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer moistening and corresponding MLCAPE plume developing this far northwestward. Bulk of guidance suggests this region should remain on the periphery of the modified moisture return, which was characterized by mean mixing ratios near 9 g/kg in the 00Z BRO sounding. Despite a predominantly meridional deep-layer wind profile, adequate hodograph curvature could support a couple supercells with severe hail as the primary threat. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front ejects east. As this impinges on the modest buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong to marginal severe gusts should occur. This activity will likely spread east across central TX, while downstream storms also form during the evening/night given the favorable large-scale ascent. The tail end of strengthening low-level south-southwesterlies, coincident with low to mid 60s surface dew points, may also offer a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado. This may occur during the late evening to overnight as multiple clusters spread east across a portion of south TX towards the Middle TX Gulf Coast. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 1, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF TX AND WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...TX to western OK... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from mid afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of a very fast upper jet overspreading much of the international border with northern Mexico through 12Z Saturday. While intense mid-level winds will remain displaced south of the upper jet deeper into northern Mexico, a lobe of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies should accompany the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse from the Lower CO Valley to the southern High Plains. Guidance does have greater-than-typical spread for the D2 time frame with the amplitude of the jetlet(s) spreading into TX by Friday evening. These differences are enough to defer on highlighting any mesoscale corridors of cat 2-SLGT risk, especially where supercell potential should be conditionally maximized Friday night in south TX. Primary categorical adjustment with this outlook is to expand the cat 1-MRGL risk farther northwest, given the signal for mid- to late-afternoon thunderstorm development in northwest TX to western OK. The 03Z RAP is relatively aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer moistening and corresponding MLCAPE plume developing this far northwestward. Bulk of guidance suggests this region should remain on the periphery of the modified moisture return, which was characterized by mean mixing ratios near 9 g/kg in the 00Z BRO sounding. Despite a predominantly meridional deep-layer wind profile, adequate hodograph curvature could support a couple supercells with severe hail as the primary threat. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front ejects east. As this impinges on the modest buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong to marginal severe gusts should occur. This activity will likely spread east across central TX, while downstream storms also form during the evening/night given the favorable large-scale ascent. The tail end of strengthening low-level south-southwesterlies, coincident with low to mid 60s surface dew points, may also offer a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado. This may occur during the late evening to overnight as multiple clusters spread east across a portion of south TX towards the Middle TX Gulf Coast. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 1, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF TX AND WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...TX to western OK... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from mid afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of a very fast upper jet overspreading much of the international border with northern Mexico through 12Z Saturday. While intense mid-level winds will remain displaced south of the upper jet deeper into northern Mexico, a lobe of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies should accompany the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse from the Lower CO Valley to the southern High Plains. Guidance does have greater-than-typical spread for the D2 time frame with the amplitude of the jetlet(s) spreading into TX by Friday evening. These differences are enough to defer on highlighting any mesoscale corridors of cat 2-SLGT risk, especially where supercell potential should be conditionally maximized Friday night in south TX. Primary categorical adjustment with this outlook is to expand the cat 1-MRGL risk farther northwest, given the signal for mid- to late-afternoon thunderstorm development in northwest TX to western OK. The 03Z RAP is relatively aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer moistening and corresponding MLCAPE plume developing this far northwestward. Bulk of guidance suggests this region should remain on the periphery of the modified moisture return, which was characterized by mean mixing ratios near 9 g/kg in the 00Z BRO sounding. Despite a predominantly meridional deep-layer wind profile, adequate hodograph curvature could support a couple supercells with severe hail as the primary threat. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front ejects east. As this impinges on the modest buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong to marginal severe gusts should occur. This activity will likely spread east across central TX, while downstream storms also form during the evening/night given the favorable large-scale ascent. The tail end of strengthening low-level south-southwesterlies, coincident with low to mid 60s surface dew points, may also offer a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado. This may occur during the late evening to overnight as multiple clusters spread east across a portion of south TX towards the Middle TX Gulf Coast. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 1, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant. Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls spread across this region. One notable surface front will move inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 1, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant. Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls spread across this region. One notable surface front will move inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 1, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant. Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls spread across this region. One notable surface front will move inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 1, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant. Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls spread across this region. One notable surface front will move inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 1, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant. Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls spread across this region. One notable surface front will move inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024 Read more
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