Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently west of the coast of southern CA/Baja California will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the Southwest, central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Saturday - Southwest Texas... The approach of the upper wave (and attendant jet max) will promote strong cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains by D3/Saturday afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 25-35 mph (gusting near/above 45 mph) are anticipated across southern NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. Despite the strong winds, confidence in sufficiently low RH remains limited, and fuel status remains poor (ERCs below the 50th percentile for early February) across this region. This lends low confidence in the overall fire weather threat - though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently west of the coast of southern CA/Baja California will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the Southwest, central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Saturday - Southwest Texas... The approach of the upper wave (and attendant jet max) will promote strong cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains by D3/Saturday afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 25-35 mph (gusting near/above 45 mph) are anticipated across southern NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. Despite the strong winds, confidence in sufficiently low RH remains limited, and fuel status remains poor (ERCs below the 50th percentile for early February) across this region. This lends low confidence in the overall fire weather threat - though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the western CONUS through the period. This evolution will be aided by the eastward progression of a strong jet streak moving across the Baja Peninsula and northwest Mexico. Cooling midlevel temperatures/steepening lapse rates accompanying the large-scale trough will continue overspreading CA today, supporting sufficient buoyancy for embedded lightning within eastward-spreading bands of convection given strong midlevel height falls/deep-layer ascent. Farther south and east, strong ascent in the left exit region of the upper jet will also support isolated lightning potential across portions of the Four Corners region given weak instability. While sufficient surface-based instability may develop across portions of the southern CA coastline behind the initial round of convection into this afternoon, veering low-level flow and related decreases in deep-layer shear should limit severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Widespread winds near 20 mph remain likely across southwest TX tomorrow, but marginally dry conditions (RH between 20-30%) and limited fuel status continue to be mitigating factors of a more robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Widespread winds near 20 mph remain likely across southwest TX tomorrow, but marginally dry conditions (RH between 20-30%) and limited fuel status continue to be mitigating factors of a more robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Widespread winds near 20 mph remain likely across southwest TX tomorrow, but marginally dry conditions (RH between 20-30%) and limited fuel status continue to be mitigating factors of a more robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Widespread winds near 20 mph remain likely across southwest TX tomorrow, but marginally dry conditions (RH between 20-30%) and limited fuel status continue to be mitigating factors of a more robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Widespread winds near 20 mph remain likely across southwest TX tomorrow, but marginally dry conditions (RH between 20-30%) and limited fuel status continue to be mitigating factors of a more robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Widespread winds near 20 mph remain likely across southwest TX tomorrow, but marginally dry conditions (RH between 20-30%) and limited fuel status continue to be mitigating factors of a more robust fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 02/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper-level trough will slowly lift northeast into parts of the central/southern Plains on Friday. A lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado. Winds across the southern High Plains will increase due strengthening pressure gradient. Winds of around 20 mph will be more common than Thursday. A greater degree of cloud cover will also serve to limit RH reductions. Downslope winds across the region will allow some areas, particularly the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, to observe near 20% RH. Despite the stronger winds, the mentioned mitigating factors and marginally dry fuels will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A blocking pattern over central North America will be undercut by a powerful eastward-moving upper jet streak located over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. border states. Strong difluence and implied ascent will overspread the southern Great Plains during the day-2 period as 60+ meter per 12 hour height falls and associated cooling mid-level temperatures move east into TX/OK. In the low levels, a lee trough over the south-central High Plains will evolve into a surface low centered over southeast CO by early Saturday morning. ...Southern Great Plains... Southerly low-level flow will aid in modest low-level moistening east of a dryline over the southern High Plains. In agreement with previous forecast thinking, it seems marginal buoyancy will develop during the afternoon within a meridional deep-layer wind profile. An arc of isolated thunderstorms is expected from the TX Big Country north along the OK/TX Panhandle border during the mid-late afternoon. A couple of transient supercells capable of an isolated threat for large hail may accompany the stronger activity. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front pushes east. It is over portions of the Edwards Plateau that there is greater confidence for widely scattered supercell development during the late afternoon/early evening. This activity should spread east across south-central TX through the late evening/overnight. Although low-level moisture (primarily 50s dewpoints) will reside across the area, cooling 500-mb temperatures (-16 to -20 deg C) will yield 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This magnitude of buoyancy and long hodographs supporting supercells suggest a threat for large hail. The latest convection-allowing model guidance explicitly supports this notion. Storm intensity is forecast to wane during the overnight into the pre-dawn hours. Nonetheless, any robust remaining storms will gradually move into a slightly more moist environment over the coastal plain with perhaps a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado/wind gust. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A blocking pattern over central North America will be undercut by a powerful eastward-moving upper jet streak located over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. border states. Strong difluence and implied ascent will overspread the southern Great Plains during the day-2 period as 60+ meter per 12 hour height falls and associated cooling mid-level temperatures move east into TX/OK. In the low levels, a lee trough over the south-central High Plains will evolve into a surface low centered over southeast CO by early Saturday morning. ...Southern Great Plains... Southerly low-level flow will aid in modest low-level moistening east of a dryline over the southern High Plains. In agreement with previous forecast thinking, it seems marginal buoyancy will develop during the afternoon within a meridional deep-layer wind profile. An arc of isolated thunderstorms is expected from the TX Big Country north along the OK/TX Panhandle border during the mid-late afternoon. A couple of transient supercells capable of an isolated threat for large hail may accompany the stronger activity. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front pushes east. It is over portions of the Edwards Plateau that there is greater confidence for widely scattered supercell development during the late afternoon/early evening. This activity should spread east across south-central TX through the late evening/overnight. Although low-level moisture (primarily 50s dewpoints) will reside across the area, cooling 500-mb temperatures (-16 to -20 deg C) will yield 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This magnitude of buoyancy and long hodographs supporting supercells suggest a threat for large hail. The latest convection-allowing model guidance explicitly supports this notion. Storm intensity is forecast to wane during the overnight into the pre-dawn hours. Nonetheless, any robust remaining storms will gradually move into a slightly more moist environment over the coastal plain with perhaps a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado/wind gust. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A blocking pattern over central North America will be undercut by a powerful eastward-moving upper jet streak located over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. border states. Strong difluence and implied ascent will overspread the southern Great Plains during the day-2 period as 60+ meter per 12 hour height falls and associated cooling mid-level temperatures move east into TX/OK. In the low levels, a lee trough over the south-central High Plains will evolve into a surface low centered over southeast CO by early Saturday morning. ...Southern Great Plains... Southerly low-level flow will aid in modest low-level moistening east of a dryline over the southern High Plains. In agreement with previous forecast thinking, it seems marginal buoyancy will develop during the afternoon within a meridional deep-layer wind profile. An arc of isolated thunderstorms is expected from the TX Big Country north along the OK/TX Panhandle border during the mid-late afternoon. A couple of transient supercells capable of an isolated threat for large hail may accompany the stronger activity. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front pushes east. It is over portions of the Edwards Plateau that there is greater confidence for widely scattered supercell development during the late afternoon/early evening. This activity should spread east across south-central TX through the late evening/overnight. Although low-level moisture (primarily 50s dewpoints) will reside across the area, cooling 500-mb temperatures (-16 to -20 deg C) will yield 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This magnitude of buoyancy and long hodographs supporting supercells suggest a threat for large hail. The latest convection-allowing model guidance explicitly supports this notion. Storm intensity is forecast to wane during the overnight into the pre-dawn hours. Nonetheless, any robust remaining storms will gradually move into a slightly more moist environment over the coastal plain with perhaps a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado/wind gust. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A blocking pattern over central North America will be undercut by a powerful eastward-moving upper jet streak located over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. border states. Strong difluence and implied ascent will overspread the southern Great Plains during the day-2 period as 60+ meter per 12 hour height falls and associated cooling mid-level temperatures move east into TX/OK. In the low levels, a lee trough over the south-central High Plains will evolve into a surface low centered over southeast CO by early Saturday morning. ...Southern Great Plains... Southerly low-level flow will aid in modest low-level moistening east of a dryline over the southern High Plains. In agreement with previous forecast thinking, it seems marginal buoyancy will develop during the afternoon within a meridional deep-layer wind profile. An arc of isolated thunderstorms is expected from the TX Big Country north along the OK/TX Panhandle border during the mid-late afternoon. A couple of transient supercells capable of an isolated threat for large hail may accompany the stronger activity. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front pushes east. It is over portions of the Edwards Plateau that there is greater confidence for widely scattered supercell development during the late afternoon/early evening. This activity should spread east across south-central TX through the late evening/overnight. Although low-level moisture (primarily 50s dewpoints) will reside across the area, cooling 500-mb temperatures (-16 to -20 deg C) will yield 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This magnitude of buoyancy and long hodographs supporting supercells suggest a threat for large hail. The latest convection-allowing model guidance explicitly supports this notion. Storm intensity is forecast to wane during the overnight into the pre-dawn hours. Nonetheless, any robust remaining storms will gradually move into a slightly more moist environment over the coastal plain with perhaps a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado/wind gust. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A blocking pattern over central North America will be undercut by a powerful eastward-moving upper jet streak located over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. border states. Strong difluence and implied ascent will overspread the southern Great Plains during the day-2 period as 60+ meter per 12 hour height falls and associated cooling mid-level temperatures move east into TX/OK. In the low levels, a lee trough over the south-central High Plains will evolve into a surface low centered over southeast CO by early Saturday morning. ...Southern Great Plains... Southerly low-level flow will aid in modest low-level moistening east of a dryline over the southern High Plains. In agreement with previous forecast thinking, it seems marginal buoyancy will develop during the afternoon within a meridional deep-layer wind profile. An arc of isolated thunderstorms is expected from the TX Big Country north along the OK/TX Panhandle border during the mid-late afternoon. A couple of transient supercells capable of an isolated threat for large hail may accompany the stronger activity. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front pushes east. It is over portions of the Edwards Plateau that there is greater confidence for widely scattered supercell development during the late afternoon/early evening. This activity should spread east across south-central TX through the late evening/overnight. Although low-level moisture (primarily 50s dewpoints) will reside across the area, cooling 500-mb temperatures (-16 to -20 deg C) will yield 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This magnitude of buoyancy and long hodographs supporting supercells suggest a threat for large hail. The latest convection-allowing model guidance explicitly supports this notion. Storm intensity is forecast to wane during the overnight into the pre-dawn hours. Nonetheless, any robust remaining storms will gradually move into a slightly more moist environment over the coastal plain with perhaps a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado/wind gust. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A blocking pattern over central North America will be undercut by a powerful eastward-moving upper jet streak located over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. border states. Strong difluence and implied ascent will overspread the southern Great Plains during the day-2 period as 60+ meter per 12 hour height falls and associated cooling mid-level temperatures move east into TX/OK. In the low levels, a lee trough over the south-central High Plains will evolve into a surface low centered over southeast CO by early Saturday morning. ...Southern Great Plains... Southerly low-level flow will aid in modest low-level moistening east of a dryline over the southern High Plains. In agreement with previous forecast thinking, it seems marginal buoyancy will develop during the afternoon within a meridional deep-layer wind profile. An arc of isolated thunderstorms is expected from the TX Big Country north along the OK/TX Panhandle border during the mid-late afternoon. A couple of transient supercells capable of an isolated threat for large hail may accompany the stronger activity. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front pushes east. It is over portions of the Edwards Plateau that there is greater confidence for widely scattered supercell development during the late afternoon/early evening. This activity should spread east across south-central TX through the late evening/overnight. Although low-level moisture (primarily 50s dewpoints) will reside across the area, cooling 500-mb temperatures (-16 to -20 deg C) will yield 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This magnitude of buoyancy and long hodographs supporting supercells suggest a threat for large hail. The latest convection-allowing model guidance explicitly supports this notion. Storm intensity is forecast to wane during the overnight into the pre-dawn hours. Nonetheless, any robust remaining storms will gradually move into a slightly more moist environment over the coastal plain with perhaps a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado/wind gust. ..Smith.. 02/01/2024 Read more