Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 2 20:01:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z No changes, locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the TX Big Bend where low humidity and gusty winds are likely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z No changes, locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the TX Big Bend where low humidity and gusty winds are likely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z No changes, locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the TX Big Bend where low humidity and gusty winds are likely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z No changes, locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the TX Big Bend where low humidity and gusty winds are likely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z No changes, locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the TX Big Bend where low humidity and gusty winds are likely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more