Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of severe threats today through Sunday, a return to negligible severe potential is anticipated for much of next week. Northerly low-level flow over the Gulf through midweek will mitigate thunderstorm development across all but southern CA on D5-6. The latter will be supported by a slow-moving, amplified upper trough approaching southern CA and Baja CA. Guidance has above-average agreement regarding the progression of this trough across the West into the Great Plains towards the end of the period. As this occurs, modifying low-level return flow from the western Gulf will ensue beneath an elevated mixed layer. Despite this, instability progs appear rather weak where cyclogenesis focuses from the central High Plains to Upper Midwest. Given a likely positive-tilt orientation of the trough, in conjunction with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front that is oriented nearly parallel to the deep-layer flow, the setup does not appear to support an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of severe threats today through Sunday, a return to negligible severe potential is anticipated for much of next week. Northerly low-level flow over the Gulf through midweek will mitigate thunderstorm development across all but southern CA on D5-6. The latter will be supported by a slow-moving, amplified upper trough approaching southern CA and Baja CA. Guidance has above-average agreement regarding the progression of this trough across the West into the Great Plains towards the end of the period. As this occurs, modifying low-level return flow from the western Gulf will ensue beneath an elevated mixed layer. Despite this, instability progs appear rather weak where cyclogenesis focuses from the central High Plains to Upper Midwest. Given a likely positive-tilt orientation of the trough, in conjunction with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front that is oriented nearly parallel to the deep-layer flow, the setup does not appear to support an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of severe threats today through Sunday, a return to negligible severe potential is anticipated for much of next week. Northerly low-level flow over the Gulf through midweek will mitigate thunderstorm development across all but southern CA on D5-6. The latter will be supported by a slow-moving, amplified upper trough approaching southern CA and Baja CA. Guidance has above-average agreement regarding the progression of this trough across the West into the Great Plains towards the end of the period. As this occurs, modifying low-level return flow from the western Gulf will ensue beneath an elevated mixed layer. Despite this, instability progs appear rather weak where cyclogenesis focuses from the central High Plains to Upper Midwest. Given a likely positive-tilt orientation of the trough, in conjunction with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front that is oriented nearly parallel to the deep-layer flow, the setup does not appear to support an organized severe threat. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south to central Florida late morning to afternoon Sunday. ...South to central FL... Secondary cyclogenesis remains the consensus forecast in the north-central Gulf to FL Panhandle vicinity, during the latter portion D2 into the first half of D3. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across the Gulf into the south FL Peninsula by early Monday. A conditional high-shear/low-CAPE setup remains plausible across the southern half of the peninsula during the late morning to afternoon. The 00Z NAM is clearly on the aggressive spectrum of guidance with the amplification of low to mid-level flow across south FL, yielding rather enlarged hodographs coupled with adequate surface-based instability advecting northeast from the eastern Gulf. Guidance consensus is for a more subdued intrusion of eastern Gulf moisture, likely occurring on the backside of scattered morning to afternoon convection that spreads towards the peninsula within a more moderate low-level warm conveyor. Given the spread across guidance and in run-to-run continuity, have deferred to later outlooks for potential delineation of a cat 2-SLGT risk. ...Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late D2 into early D3 off the CA coast. Guidance has pronounced spread with the amplitude of this cyclogenesis, as well as run-to-run continuity differences in how close to the coast it occurs. The more aggressive guidance suggests a conditional brief tornado threat might develop around the afternoon to early evening, if adequate surface-based instability can spread towards the coast. But with below-average forecast confidence given the guidance uncertainty, will defer to later outlooks for the possibility of a cat 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south to central Florida late morning to afternoon Sunday. ...South to central FL... Secondary cyclogenesis remains the consensus forecast in the north-central Gulf to FL Panhandle vicinity, during the latter portion D2 into the first half of D3. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across the Gulf into the south FL Peninsula by early Monday. A conditional high-shear/low-CAPE setup remains plausible across the southern half of the peninsula during the late morning to afternoon. The 00Z NAM is clearly on the aggressive spectrum of guidance with the amplification of low to mid-level flow across south FL, yielding rather enlarged hodographs coupled with adequate surface-based instability advecting northeast from the eastern Gulf. Guidance consensus is for a more subdued intrusion of eastern Gulf moisture, likely occurring on the backside of scattered morning to afternoon convection that spreads towards the peninsula within a more moderate low-level warm conveyor. Given the spread across guidance and in run-to-run continuity, have deferred to later outlooks for potential delineation of a cat 2-SLGT risk. ...Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late D2 into early D3 off the CA coast. Guidance has pronounced spread with the amplitude of this cyclogenesis, as well as run-to-run continuity differences in how close to the coast it occurs. The more aggressive guidance suggests a conditional brief tornado threat might develop around the afternoon to early evening, if adequate surface-based instability can spread towards the coast. But with below-average forecast confidence given the guidance uncertainty, will defer to later outlooks for the possibility of a cat 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south to central Florida late morning to afternoon Sunday. ...South to central FL... Secondary cyclogenesis remains the consensus forecast in the north-central Gulf to FL Panhandle vicinity, during the latter portion D2 into the first half of D3. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across the Gulf into the south FL Peninsula by early Monday. A conditional high-shear/low-CAPE setup remains plausible across the southern half of the peninsula during the late morning to afternoon. The 00Z NAM is clearly on the aggressive spectrum of guidance with the amplification of low to mid-level flow across south FL, yielding rather enlarged hodographs coupled with adequate surface-based instability advecting northeast from the eastern Gulf. Guidance consensus is for a more subdued intrusion of eastern Gulf moisture, likely occurring on the backside of scattered morning to afternoon convection that spreads towards the peninsula within a more moderate low-level warm conveyor. Given the spread across guidance and in run-to-run continuity, have deferred to later outlooks for potential delineation of a cat 2-SLGT risk. ...Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late D2 into early D3 off the CA coast. Guidance has pronounced spread with the amplitude of this cyclogenesis, as well as run-to-run continuity differences in how close to the coast it occurs. The more aggressive guidance suggests a conditional brief tornado threat might develop around the afternoon to early evening, if adequate surface-based instability can spread towards the coast. But with below-average forecast confidence given the guidance uncertainty, will defer to later outlooks for the possibility of a cat 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south to central Florida late morning to afternoon Sunday. ...South to central FL... Secondary cyclogenesis remains the consensus forecast in the north-central Gulf to FL Panhandle vicinity, during the latter portion D2 into the first half of D3. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across the Gulf into the south FL Peninsula by early Monday. A conditional high-shear/low-CAPE setup remains plausible across the southern half of the peninsula during the late morning to afternoon. The 00Z NAM is clearly on the aggressive spectrum of guidance with the amplification of low to mid-level flow across south FL, yielding rather enlarged hodographs coupled with adequate surface-based instability advecting northeast from the eastern Gulf. Guidance consensus is for a more subdued intrusion of eastern Gulf moisture, likely occurring on the backside of scattered morning to afternoon convection that spreads towards the peninsula within a more moderate low-level warm conveyor. Given the spread across guidance and in run-to-run continuity, have deferred to later outlooks for potential delineation of a cat 2-SLGT risk. ...Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late D2 into early D3 off the CA coast. Guidance has pronounced spread with the amplitude of this cyclogenesis, as well as run-to-run continuity differences in how close to the coast it occurs. The more aggressive guidance suggests a conditional brief tornado threat might develop around the afternoon to early evening, if adequate surface-based instability can spread towards the coast. But with below-average forecast confidence given the guidance uncertainty, will defer to later outlooks for the possibility of a cat 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south to central Florida late morning to afternoon Sunday. ...South to central FL... Secondary cyclogenesis remains the consensus forecast in the north-central Gulf to FL Panhandle vicinity, during the latter portion D2 into the first half of D3. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across the Gulf into the south FL Peninsula by early Monday. A conditional high-shear/low-CAPE setup remains plausible across the southern half of the peninsula during the late morning to afternoon. The 00Z NAM is clearly on the aggressive spectrum of guidance with the amplification of low to mid-level flow across south FL, yielding rather enlarged hodographs coupled with adequate surface-based instability advecting northeast from the eastern Gulf. Guidance consensus is for a more subdued intrusion of eastern Gulf moisture, likely occurring on the backside of scattered morning to afternoon convection that spreads towards the peninsula within a more moderate low-level warm conveyor. Given the spread across guidance and in run-to-run continuity, have deferred to later outlooks for potential delineation of a cat 2-SLGT risk. ...Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late D2 into early D3 off the CA coast. Guidance has pronounced spread with the amplitude of this cyclogenesis, as well as run-to-run continuity differences in how close to the coast it occurs. The more aggressive guidance suggests a conditional brief tornado threat might develop around the afternoon to early evening, if adequate surface-based instability can spread towards the coast. But with below-average forecast confidence given the guidance uncertainty, will defer to later outlooks for the possibility of a cat 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TO CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south to central Florida late morning to afternoon Sunday. ...South to central FL... Secondary cyclogenesis remains the consensus forecast in the north-central Gulf to FL Panhandle vicinity, during the latter portion D2 into the first half of D3. This process should occur as the intense mid-level jet, centered on the Rio Grande Valley/south TX into the northwest Gulf at 12Z Sunday, translates eastward across the Gulf into the south FL Peninsula by early Monday. A conditional high-shear/low-CAPE setup remains plausible across the southern half of the peninsula during the late morning to afternoon. The 00Z NAM is clearly on the aggressive spectrum of guidance with the amplification of low to mid-level flow across south FL, yielding rather enlarged hodographs coupled with adequate surface-based instability advecting northeast from the eastern Gulf. Guidance consensus is for a more subdued intrusion of eastern Gulf moisture, likely occurring on the backside of scattered morning to afternoon convection that spreads towards the peninsula within a more moderate low-level warm conveyor. Given the spread across guidance and in run-to-run continuity, have deferred to later outlooks for potential delineation of a cat 2-SLGT risk. ...Coastal central CA... Within the left-exit of an intense upper jet over the eastern Pacific, an approaching shortwave trough will aid in cyclogenesis late D2 into early D3 off the CA coast. Guidance has pronounced spread with the amplitude of this cyclogenesis, as well as run-to-run continuity differences in how close to the coast it occurs. The more aggressive guidance suggests a conditional brief tornado threat might develop around the afternoon to early evening, if adequate surface-based instability can spread towards the coast. But with below-average forecast confidence given the guidance uncertainty, will defer to later outlooks for the possibility of a cat 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND NEAR THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning across the Middle to Upper TX coastal plain. A swath of deep convection is expected to be ongoing, with moderate uncertainty over how far east across the coastal plain the activity will be at 12Z. The modest instability axis, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will extend from the Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf. A gradient of diminishing buoyancy will be present to the northeast, ahead of the clusters, where surface dew points decrease to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection shifts entirely offshore. The intrusion of surface-based instability into LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal diurnal surface heating amid widespread rain/clouds. ...Red River vicinity of northeast TX/southeast OK... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along parts of the occluded front arcing east then southeast of the primary cyclone over northwest TX. The most probable corridor for this to occur appears to be across northeast TX into southeast OK. The impinging of steeper mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough may support small hail in low-topped convection along the front. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND NEAR THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning across the Middle to Upper TX coastal plain. A swath of deep convection is expected to be ongoing, with moderate uncertainty over how far east across the coastal plain the activity will be at 12Z. The modest instability axis, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will extend from the Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf. A gradient of diminishing buoyancy will be present to the northeast, ahead of the clusters, where surface dew points decrease to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection shifts entirely offshore. The intrusion of surface-based instability into LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal diurnal surface heating amid widespread rain/clouds. ...Red River vicinity of northeast TX/southeast OK... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along parts of the occluded front arcing east then southeast of the primary cyclone over northwest TX. The most probable corridor for this to occur appears to be across northeast TX into southeast OK. The impinging of steeper mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough may support small hail in low-topped convection along the front. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND NEAR THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning across the Middle to Upper TX coastal plain. A swath of deep convection is expected to be ongoing, with moderate uncertainty over how far east across the coastal plain the activity will be at 12Z. The modest instability axis, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will extend from the Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf. A gradient of diminishing buoyancy will be present to the northeast, ahead of the clusters, where surface dew points decrease to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection shifts entirely offshore. The intrusion of surface-based instability into LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal diurnal surface heating amid widespread rain/clouds. ...Red River vicinity of northeast TX/southeast OK... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along parts of the occluded front arcing east then southeast of the primary cyclone over northwest TX. The most probable corridor for this to occur appears to be across northeast TX into southeast OK. The impinging of steeper mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough may support small hail in low-topped convection along the front. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND NEAR THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning across the Middle to Upper TX coastal plain. A swath of deep convection is expected to be ongoing, with moderate uncertainty over how far east across the coastal plain the activity will be at 12Z. The modest instability axis, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will extend from the Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf. A gradient of diminishing buoyancy will be present to the northeast, ahead of the clusters, where surface dew points decrease to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection shifts entirely offshore. The intrusion of surface-based instability into LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal diurnal surface heating amid widespread rain/clouds. ...Red River vicinity of northeast TX/southeast OK... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along parts of the occluded front arcing east then southeast of the primary cyclone over northwest TX. The most probable corridor for this to occur appears to be across northeast TX into southeast OK. The impinging of steeper mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough may support small hail in low-topped convection along the front. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND NEAR THE LA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday over southeast Texas and near the Louisiana coast. ...Southeast TX and far southern LA... Primary severe potential should be confined to Saturday morning across the Middle to Upper TX coastal plain. A swath of deep convection is expected to be ongoing, with moderate uncertainty over how far east across the coastal plain the activity will be at 12Z. The modest instability axis, characterized by MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, will extend from the Middle TX Coast into the northwest Gulf. A gradient of diminishing buoyancy will be present to the northeast, ahead of the clusters, where surface dew points decrease to the lower 60s and upper 50s. Adequate low-level shear should support a threat of localized damaging winds and a brief tornado, before surface-based convection shifts entirely offshore. The intrusion of surface-based instability into LA, outside of the mouth of the MS River Delta, seems unlikely given minimal diurnal surface heating amid widespread rain/clouds. ...Red River vicinity of northeast TX/southeast OK... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment will be possible along parts of the occluded front arcing east then southeast of the primary cyclone over northwest TX. The most probable corridor for this to occur appears to be across northeast TX into southeast OK. The impinging of steeper mid-level lapse rates with approach of the thermal trough may support small hail in low-topped convection along the front. ..Grams.. 02/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low will continue to slowly progress eastward across the southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday), supporting continued strong westerly surface flow across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface winds could easily sustain over 25 mph on a widespread basis from southeast New Mexico to the Rio Grande. RH should dip into the 20-25 percent range across much of western Texas, but could drop as low as 15 percent by afternoon peak heating near the international border. Though fuels remain marginally receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis, rainfall accumulations have been lacking along the Rio Grande for at least the past week. As such, Elevated highlights have been added along portions of the Rio Grande where 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds may coincide with 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more