Severe Storms

MD 0094 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN GEORGIAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Alabama into southeastern Tennessee and adjacent northwestern Georgian Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272044Z - 272315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms overspreading the region late this afternoon may become capable of posing at least some risk for producing a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Persistent convective development, spreading across the southern Georgia/Alabama state border vicinity, western Florida Panhandle and north central into northeastern Gulf of Mexico, has impeded low-level moisture return to the warm sector of a developing surface cyclone, farther inland across the central Gulf States into Tennessee Valley. However, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that weak boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing, ahead of the eastward advancing cold front which trails the modest, but deepening, surface low center as it migrates north-northeastward through middle Tennessee. This is being aided by insolation beneath the low/mid-level dry slot, and the onset of mid-level cooling, which are contributing to sufficient conditional and convective instability to support a line of strengthening thunderstorm development near/just ahead of the front. While this convection is generally low-topped in nature, strong shear through the convective layer may contribute to further organization and the evolution of embedded supercell structures. The evolution of more discrete cells just ahead of this activity may not be out of the question, as it advances toward the Cumberland Plateau/southern Appalachians vicinity through early evening. Across parts of northeastern Alabama into adjacent portions of southeastern Tennessee and northwestern Georgia, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings have indicated that weak boundary-layer destabilization through 21-00Z may coincide with low-level hodographs characterized by sizable clockwise curvature, before trending linear near the approaching cold front. While the overall environment, at best, may be marginal, there appears some window of opportunity for convection to pose a risk for producing a tornado or two through early evening. ..Kerr/Hart.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 34108679 34748678 35158643 35418518 34248546 33568652 34108679 Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE AAF TO 25 WSW TLH TO 25 E DHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095 ..WEINMAN..01/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC039-065-073-129-272240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GADSDEN JEFFERSON LEON WAKULLA GAC007-087-131-201-205-253-275-272240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER DECATUR GRADY MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS GMZ730-755-272240- CW Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE AAF TO 25 WSW TLH TO 25 E DHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095 ..WEINMAN..01/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC039-065-073-129-272240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GADSDEN JEFFERSON LEON WAKULLA GAC007-087-131-201-205-253-275-272240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER DECATUR GRADY MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS GMZ730-755-272240- CW Read more

WW 12 TORNADO FL GA CW 271905Z - 280000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 12 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms extends from the Florida Panhandle southward into the Gulf. These storms will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles west southwest of Panama City FL to 25 miles east northeast of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0093 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271838Z - 272045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A line of organized storms will impact portions of the Florida Panhandle in the next two hours. Strong/severe gusts are the main concern, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KEVX depicts a well-organized line of storms south of Pensacola FL tracking east-northeastward at around 45 kt. This convection is feeding off of the northern periphery of a high theta-e air mass over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Current thinking is that 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (sampled by KEVX VWP) oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge gust front should support the maintenance of these storms. Ahead of the line, filtered diurnal heating/destabilization of a moistening boundary layer (upper 60s dewpoints) is ongoing over portions of the central FL Panhandle. Given this downstream destabilization and the increasing organization of the convective line (including northern book-end vortex), strong to severe gusts are possible over portions of the central Florida Panhandle in the next two hours. Additionally, 40 kt of 0-1 km shear (per KEVX VWP) could support an isolated embedded tornado threat. Overall, confidence in the line of storms maintaining current intensity is not particularly high, though convective trends are being monitored closely. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 30258606 30438610 30678586 30798551 30768503 30668449 30458421 30008416 29678451 29548491 29628540 29898573 30258606 Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093 ..WEINMAN..01/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-065-073-077-129-133-272140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC007-087-131-201-205-253-275-272140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER DECATUR GRADY MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS GMZ730-750-752-755-272140- CW Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible through early evening across parts of the Florida Panhandle into far southwest Georgia. Isolated strong to severe storms also may extend into east Tennessee and the western/central Carolinas. ...20z Update... The Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks have been shifted east across the FL Panhandle into far southwest GA through early evening, in alignment with Tornado Watch 12. A bowing line segment developing east/northeast near the coast of the FL Panhandle and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes over the next few hours. The damaging wind risk may persist into parts of northern FL where stronger heating as allow for more destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates, necessitating the eastward adjustment in severe probabilities. Severe potential should diminish near/just after sunset. Additional low-topped convection has begun to develop further north along the synoptic cold front near the TN/MS/AL border vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk of strong gusts and possibly marginally severe hail in stronger cores. Some risk of locally strong gusts or perhaps a tornado is also expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across the western/central Carolinas in the vicinity of a warm front. Some minor eastward expansion of severe probabilities has been included with this update to account for latest trends is hi-res guidance. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...AL/FL/GA/SC... Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent upper trough over AR, with an associated 80+ knot mid-level jet rotating into the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm activity has been relatively muted thus far this morning, but some increase in intensities has been noted along a line of convection over the western FL panhandle. These storms will progress eastward through the afternoon, with sufficient winds aloft and surface-based instability for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. As this activity tracks northeastward later today, most recent CAM solutions suggest an area of weak secondary cyclogenesis and associated greater destabilization/heating may develop over east-central GA into central/upstate SC. This is along a retreating warm front where surface dewpoints will rise into the low/mid 60s. Have expanded the MRGL risk area to include this region, and areas downstream into NC where any storms that form might track. A supercell or two capable of locally damaging winds or perhaps a tornado are possible if this scenario unfolds. ...East TN/North GA/Carolinas... Cyclogenesis will occur today over parts of middle TN as the strong mid/upper level jet noses into the area. The warm sector of the low will move northward into east TN/north GA by late afternoon, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of thunderstorms. While these low-topped storms may be sparse, they will be moving very fast and could pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. Read more