Severe Storms

WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0029 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0172 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 27... FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0172 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...Southern Indiana...Southwest Ohio...Northern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 27... Valid 280801Z - 281000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 27 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat is expected to continue across WW 27 for a few more hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will also be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery shows a couple strong to severe short line segments over southern Indiana. This convection is located along a corridor of instability, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis from the RAP have a shortwave trough and fast moving vorticity max located in southwest Indiana. This feature will continue to enhance lift and provide support for continued strong thunderstorm development early this morning. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Indianapolis has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots suggesting that supercells with large hail and wind damage will be possible. In addition, a 60 to 70 knot jet is analyzed at 850 mb centered over far northern Kentucky which will continue to provide strong low-level shear sufficient for an isolated tornado threat. Furthermore, an increase in the severe threat could occur over the next few hours in northern Kentucky as cells increase in coverage within and just to the south of WW 27. ..Broyles.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38318748 38748719 39278649 39768569 40188437 39928382 39188372 38458371 37938413 37788519 37548639 37638711 37868745 38318748 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0028 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0028 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0171 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26... FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...southeast Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26... Valid 280713Z - 280915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of southeast Lower Michigan over the next 1 to 2 hours. Additional weather watch issuance will not be needed, but an extension in area could be done if necessary. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Detroit shows a disjointed line of strong to severe storms ongoing 30 to 40 statute miles to the north of Detroit. The line of storms is being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, and an associated vorticity max, located over Lower Michigan evident on water vapor imagery. RAP analysis data suggests the MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg, and WSR-88D VWPs have 45 to 50 knots of 0-6 km shear. This should support isolated supercells capable of producing wind damage and isolated large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 may also be sufficient for a brief tornado as well. ..Broyles/Goss.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX... LAT...LON 43288248 43438270 43398309 43268340 43098360 42868376 42678383 42498386 42338381 42218354 42308305 42498260 42888239 43288248 Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW CGI TO 15 NNW EVV TO 5 NNW BMG TO 30 NNE IND. ..BROYLES..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-280940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-041-043-047-051-059-061-065- 071-077-079-081-093-097-101-105-109-115-117-123-125-129-135-137- 139-143-145-147-155-161-163-173-175-177-280940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN GIBSON HANCOCK HARRISON HENRY JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARION MARTIN MONROE MORGAN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more