Severe Storms

WW 27 TORNADO IL IN KY OH 280325Z - 281100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 27 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern and central Indiana Northern Kentucky Southwestern Ohio * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1025 PM until 600 AM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and expand in coverage across western parts of the watch area in the next couple hours, then move rapidly east-northeastward, generally up the Ohio Valley region overnight. A few supercells are possible with all severe hazards (tornadoes, hail, gusts), and some small bowing clusters also could offer a wind/tornado threat. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Carbondale IL to 45 miles southeast of Dayton OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 25...WW 26... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Edwards Read more

MD 0173 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR OHIO...FAR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0173 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...Ohio...Far Southwest Pennsylvania...Northwest West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 280925Z - 281030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue for several hours across parts of the Ohio Valley this morning. Wind damage, hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible. A new weather watch will need to be issued soon across the region. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Wilmington, Ohio shows a line of organizing storms located from southwest Ohio into southwest Indiana. This line is being supported by lift associated with a cold front, and shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The line will continue to progress east-southeastward over the next several hours, with convection moving eastward across the remainder of southern Ohio. Weak instability, along with about 80 kts of 0-6 km shear, evident on the Wilmington, Ohio WSR-88D VWP, will support an isolated severe threat. A potential for wind damage and hail will exist with the stronger cells embedded in the line. A brief tornado or two will be possible, mainly with rotating cells within or ahead of the stronger parts of the line. ..Broyles/Goss.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 39868028 39098085 38468200 38428290 38688331 39318326 40298333 40778291 40978174 40858039 39868028 Read more

WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 29 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...ILN...RLX...PBZ...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC135-281140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEWIS OHC001-009-031-041-045-047-049-053-073-075-079-083-087-089-097- 105-115-117-119-127-129-131-141-145-159-163-281140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ATHENS COSHOCTON DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLIA HOCKING HOLMES JACKSON KNOX LAWRENCE LICKING MADISON MEIGS MORGAN MORROW MUSKINGUM PERRY PICKAWAY PIKE ROSS SCIOTO UNION VINTON WVC011-035-043-053-079-099-281140- Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW HOP TO 10 NNW OWB TO 50 ENE EVV TO 40 NW SDF TO 40 WSW DAY TO 45 N DAY. ..BROYLES..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-029-031-043-047-061-077-079-115-117-123-137-143-147- 155-161-175-281040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DEARBORN DECATUR FLOYD FRANKLIN HARRISON JEFFERSON JENNINGS OHIO ORANGE PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT SPENCER SWITZERLAND UNION WASHINGTON KYC005-015-017-023-027-029-037-041-059-067-073-077-081-091-097- 103-111-117-149-161-163-181-185-187-191-201-209-211-215-223-239- 281040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOONE BOURBON BRACKEN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL DAVIESS Read more

WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0029 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0172 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 27... FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0172 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...Southern Indiana...Southwest Ohio...Northern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 27... Valid 280801Z - 281000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 27 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat is expected to continue across WW 27 for a few more hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will also be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery shows a couple strong to severe short line segments over southern Indiana. This convection is located along a corridor of instability, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis from the RAP have a shortwave trough and fast moving vorticity max located in southwest Indiana. This feature will continue to enhance lift and provide support for continued strong thunderstorm development early this morning. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Indianapolis has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots suggesting that supercells with large hail and wind damage will be possible. In addition, a 60 to 70 knot jet is analyzed at 850 mb centered over far northern Kentucky which will continue to provide strong low-level shear sufficient for an isolated tornado threat. Furthermore, an increase in the severe threat could occur over the next few hours in northern Kentucky as cells increase in coverage within and just to the south of WW 27. ..Broyles.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38318748 38748719 39278649 39768569 40188437 39928382 39188372 38458371 37938413 37788519 37548639 37638711 37868745 38318748 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0028 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more