Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more