Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely. A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

MD 0170 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 27... FOR LOWER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0170 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Areas affected...Lower Ohio Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 27... Valid 280550Z - 280715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 27 continues. SUMMARY...Frontal, and prefrontal convection is expected to gradually increase over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Surface front is surging southeast across IL and currently arcs from near DNV-SAR. Over the last hour or so, convection has gradually increased along/ahead of the immediate wind shift, especially west-southwest of HUF to Effingham. Lightning is increasing with this activity, and trailing midlevel convection across central IL suggests large-scale ascent is overspreading this region. Given these trends, convection may continue to increase near the front as it surges toward southwest IN. ..Darrow.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38178991 39758741 39558635 37938891 38178991 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless, midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in development of weak elevated instability during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not expected. Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 02/28/2024 Read more

MD 0169 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27... FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Areas affected...Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 27... Valid 280444Z - 280645Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 27 continues. SUMMARY...Hail and wind threat continues with convection across southern lower Michigan. DISCUSSION...Well-organized MCS that progressed across southern Lake MI has advanced into lower MI, sustained in part by low-level warm advection. MCV has lifted north-northeast to a position about 20 mi west-southwest of MKG. While the overall complex is not quite as organized, one supercell in particular over eastern Van Buren County MI likely remains severe as it tracks east toward Kalamazoo County. This southern storm is most likely slightly elevated in nature, and forecast soundings suggest the most buoyant parcels are near 1 km AGL. Hail/wind remain the primary risks within this warm-advection activity. Severe threat will gradually spread northeast across the remainder of ww26 over the next several hours. ..Darrow.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42958559 42998445 42548379 41768352 41768417 41948497 41998630 42958559 Read more