Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0176 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TN VALLEY TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0856 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...TN Valley to southern Appalachians Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281456Z - 281700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Southern portion of a low-topped squall line should continue eastward across parts of the Tennessee Valley through at least midday. Strong to localized severe wind gusts capable of sporadic damage should be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a long, but thin, low-topped (echo tops to around 30k ft) squall line extends as far south as northeast MS. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence attendant to the southeast-moving cold front, will be gradually weakening across the region into the afternoon. However, a few cloud breaks noted ahead of the line should yield modest boundary-layer destabilization. In conjunction with the northeast extent of low 60s surface dew points, the relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment should compensate for the diminishing ascent and will probably sustain the low-topped convective line eastward through at least midday. This scenario is generally supported by 12Z CAM guidance. With veered surface and low-level flow, increasing to 40-45 kts at 1 km AGL, the primary threat should be strong to locally severe surface gusts, peaking in the 50-65 mph range. A 53-kt gust was measured at KMSL at 1437Z. ..Grams/Guyer.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 35578600 35818470 35458401 35098380 34608371 34258386 33948462 33558572 33448683 33518828 33618872 34638751 35578600 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

MD 0175 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 28...29... FOR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...Southwest Pennsylvania...West Virginia...Far western Virginia...Eastern Kentucky...Northern Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 28...29... Valid 281315Z - 281515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 28, 29 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to continue as a line moves eastward into the Appalachians. The threat should become marginal this morning, and additional weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery from southwest Pennsylvania southwestward to middle Tennessee shows a line of thunderstorms with several embedded severe storms and short bowing line segments. This line will continue to move eastward into the Appalachians this morning, where RAP analysis suggests weak instability is present. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely continue to support a wind-damage and hail threat for another hour or two. However, these threats are expected to become increasingly marginal as the line moves to the east of the current watches. At this time, weather watch issuance is not planned to the east of the ongoing watches. ..Broyles/Goss.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK... OHX... LAT...LON 39747882 40187907 40337963 40238016 39918047 39028108 38488181 38158309 37648434 37238527 36868599 36408645 35868586 36038458 36818283 37228134 37618023 39057892 39747882 Read more

WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW CRW TO 20 NNE CRW. WW 29 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 281500Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175. ..GRAMS..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...ILN...RLX...PBZ...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC005-039-043-045-059-099-281500- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE KANAWHA LINCOLN LOGAN MINGO WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 29 TORNADO KY OH WV 280940Z - 281500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 29 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of parts of northeeastern Kentucky central and southern Ohio western West Virginia * Effective this Wednesday morning from 440 AM until 1000 AM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms are ongoing across western Ohio and northern Kentucky at this time, and will continue to spread eastward over the next several hours. The storms will pose local risk for damaging winds and hail, as well as potential for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of Columbus OH to 50 miles south of Athens OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 27...WW 28... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Goss Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES...AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the central U.S. this morning will continue to intensify as it gradually takes on a more negative tilt, shifting eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. through tonight. Meanwhile, weak ridging will generally prevail over the West, ahead of second trough over the Gulf of Alaska digging southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachians through midday, and then continue across the eastern U.S., with the boundary moving off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts this evening and lingering only across Florida overnight. In the West, a cold front will gradually shift southeastward into/across the Pacific Northwest. In between, high pressure will prevail across much of the country. ...Appalachian states... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mississippi Delta, along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The strongest storms are ongoing from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward across Kentucky, where occasionally severe storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two -- continue moving eastward. Instability ahead of the convection weakens with eastward extent, particularly east of the mountains. However, pockets of near-surface-based CAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range will be possible through this afternoon -- enough to support broken/narrow frontal convective bands until the front moves offshore this evening. Despite the very weak instability, the deep-layer wind field will remain particularly strong -- including 40 to 60 kt as low as 1km AGL and increasing with height. As such, potential for convectively enhanced mixing/downward momentum transport appears to be sufficient to suggest the possibility if isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. This warrants eastward expansion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk through the day, with risk ending as the front moves offshore this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES...AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the central U.S. this morning will continue to intensify as it gradually takes on a more negative tilt, shifting eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. through tonight. Meanwhile, weak ridging will generally prevail over the West, ahead of second trough over the Gulf of Alaska digging southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachians through midday, and then continue across the eastern U.S., with the boundary moving off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts this evening and lingering only across Florida overnight. In the West, a cold front will gradually shift southeastward into/across the Pacific Northwest. In between, high pressure will prevail across much of the country. ...Appalachian states... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mississippi Delta, along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The strongest storms are ongoing from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward across Kentucky, where occasionally severe storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two -- continue moving eastward. Instability ahead of the convection weakens with eastward extent, particularly east of the mountains. However, pockets of near-surface-based CAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range will be possible through this afternoon -- enough to support broken/narrow frontal convective bands until the front moves offshore this evening. Despite the very weak instability, the deep-layer wind field will remain particularly strong -- including 40 to 60 kt as low as 1km AGL and increasing with height. As such, potential for convectively enhanced mixing/downward momentum transport appears to be sufficient to suggest the possibility if isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. This warrants eastward expansion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk through the day, with risk ending as the front moves offshore this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES...AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the central U.S. this morning will continue to intensify as it gradually takes on a more negative tilt, shifting eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. through tonight. Meanwhile, weak ridging will generally prevail over the West, ahead of second trough over the Gulf of Alaska digging southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachians through midday, and then continue across the eastern U.S., with the boundary moving off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts this evening and lingering only across Florida overnight. In the West, a cold front will gradually shift southeastward into/across the Pacific Northwest. In between, high pressure will prevail across much of the country. ...Appalachian states... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mississippi Delta, along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The strongest storms are ongoing from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward across Kentucky, where occasionally severe storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two -- continue moving eastward. Instability ahead of the convection weakens with eastward extent, particularly east of the mountains. However, pockets of near-surface-based CAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range will be possible through this afternoon -- enough to support broken/narrow frontal convective bands until the front moves offshore this evening. Despite the very weak instability, the deep-layer wind field will remain particularly strong -- including 40 to 60 kt as low as 1km AGL and increasing with height. As such, potential for convectively enhanced mixing/downward momentum transport appears to be sufficient to suggest the possibility if isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. This warrants eastward expansion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk through the day, with risk ending as the front moves offshore this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/28/2024 Read more