Severe Storms

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N TOR TO 60 ENE DGW TO 50 SSW GCC TO 40 SW 4BQ. ..SPC..07/24/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-033-047-081-093-103-240140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON WYC005-011-045-240140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N TOR TO 60 ENE DGW TO 50 SSW GCC TO 40 SW 4BQ. ..SPC..07/24/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-033-047-081-093-103-240140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON WYC005-011-045-240140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0538 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N TOR TO 60 ENE DGW TO 50 SSW GCC TO 40 SW 4BQ. ..SPC..07/24/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 538 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-033-047-081-093-103-240140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON WYC005-011-045-240140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0539 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 539 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/23/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 539 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-065-137-141-147-163-179-183-232340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GRAHAM NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS SHERIDAN SMITH NEC001-003-009-011-019-027-029-035-041-047-061-063-065-071-073- 077-079-081-083-085-087-089-093-099-107-111-113-115-119-121-125- 137-139-141-143-145-163-167-175-179-181-183-185-232340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BUFFALO CEDAR CHASE CLAY CUSTER DAWSON FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK HOLT HOWARD KEARNEY KNOX LINCOLN LOGAN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A compact, mid to upper-level closed low will traverse central CA D3/Friday. This feature will open/phase with a Pacific trough D4/Saturday and then lift northeastward over the Great Basin and central Rockies. Through this weekend, a subtropical ridge will begin to dominate the central and southern CONUS. Thereafter, deeper southerly flow aloft is anticipated to develop on its western fringe from southern CA through the Pacific Northwest. ...D3/Friday... Mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the upper low will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms along a residual boundary from northern CA, eastward into WY. Inverted "V" forecast soundings, low QPF, and PWATs less than 0.75" over mostly receptive fuels suggest the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Farther north localized breezy westerly winds are expected in the gaps of the Cascades of WA and OR near the border, although only a brief drop to near critical RH precludes the need for low probabilities. ...D4/Saturday... An increase in south-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected over the Southwest and central Rockies as the shortwave trough progresses eastward. A well mixed boundary layer from northwest AZ to far western CO should allow for some of this modest flow to translate to the surface, aiding in localized breezy conditions there. A couple of small low probability areas were considered for these areas where fuels are receptive and low RH is anticipated. However, given the isolated nature of critical conditions and lower confidence in occurrence they were not included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A compact, mid to upper-level closed low will traverse central CA D3/Friday. This feature will open/phase with a Pacific trough D4/Saturday and then lift northeastward over the Great Basin and central Rockies. Through this weekend, a subtropical ridge will begin to dominate the central and southern CONUS. Thereafter, deeper southerly flow aloft is anticipated to develop on its western fringe from southern CA through the Pacific Northwest. ...D3/Friday... Mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the upper low will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms along a residual boundary from northern CA, eastward into WY. Inverted "V" forecast soundings, low QPF, and PWATs less than 0.75" over mostly receptive fuels suggest the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Farther north localized breezy westerly winds are expected in the gaps of the Cascades of WA and OR near the border, although only a brief drop to near critical RH precludes the need for low probabilities. ...D4/Saturday... An increase in south-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected over the Southwest and central Rockies as the shortwave trough progresses eastward. A well mixed boundary layer from northwest AZ to far western CO should allow for some of this modest flow to translate to the surface, aiding in localized breezy conditions there. A couple of small low probability areas were considered for these areas where fuels are receptive and low RH is anticipated. However, given the isolated nature of critical conditions and lower confidence in occurrence they were not included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A compact, mid to upper-level closed low will traverse central CA D3/Friday. This feature will open/phase with a Pacific trough D4/Saturday and then lift northeastward over the Great Basin and central Rockies. Through this weekend, a subtropical ridge will begin to dominate the central and southern CONUS. Thereafter, deeper southerly flow aloft is anticipated to develop on its western fringe from southern CA through the Pacific Northwest. ...D3/Friday... Mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the upper low will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms along a residual boundary from northern CA, eastward into WY. Inverted "V" forecast soundings, low QPF, and PWATs less than 0.75" over mostly receptive fuels suggest the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Farther north localized breezy westerly winds are expected in the gaps of the Cascades of WA and OR near the border, although only a brief drop to near critical RH precludes the need for low probabilities. ...D4/Saturday... An increase in south-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected over the Southwest and central Rockies as the shortwave trough progresses eastward. A well mixed boundary layer from northwest AZ to far western CO should allow for some of this modest flow to translate to the surface, aiding in localized breezy conditions there. A couple of small low probability areas were considered for these areas where fuels are receptive and low RH is anticipated. However, given the isolated nature of critical conditions and lower confidence in occurrence they were not included in the forecast at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 23 02:01:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 23 02:01:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered potentially severe thunderstorms may occur tonight across the northern Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Severe storms have remained relatively isolated/limited through late afternoon and early evening, likely attributable to factors such as a persistence of semi-cool surface temperatures and stratus across southeast Montana and the western Dakotas, as well as modest overall forcing and residual mid-level capping regionally. Aided by the approach of an upstream mid-level trough, some strong to severe storms may still emerge across southeast Montana and the Big Horns vicinity of northeast Wyoming. A strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest may also influence an uptick in storm coverage/intensity tonight across South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota and Minnesota. Bouts of damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary hazards regionally. Regarding short-term severe potential across Iowa, see Mesoscale Discussion 1757. ..Guyer.. 07/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered potentially severe thunderstorms may occur tonight across the northern Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Severe storms have remained relatively isolated/limited through late afternoon and early evening, likely attributable to factors such as a persistence of semi-cool surface temperatures and stratus across southeast Montana and the western Dakotas, as well as modest overall forcing and residual mid-level capping regionally. Aided by the approach of an upstream mid-level trough, some strong to severe storms may still emerge across southeast Montana and the Big Horns vicinity of northeast Wyoming. A strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest may also influence an uptick in storm coverage/intensity tonight across South Dakota into southern/eastern North Dakota and Minnesota. Bouts of damaging winds and hail are expected to be the primary hazards regionally. Regarding short-term severe potential across Iowa, see Mesoscale Discussion 1757. ..Guyer.. 07/23/2025 Read more

MD 1757 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1757 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 230027Z - 230200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong winds may accompany storms. The strongest storms could show weak low-level rotation. DISCUSSION...An MCV in the mid-Missouri Valley has promoted widely scattered storms in parts of southern Iowa. These storms may persist into mid-evening. A very moist airmass at the surface is supporting 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear remains quite modest under the upper-level ridge, though the MCV has contributed to local value of 20-30 kts. The main hazard with these storms will be locally damaging winds as storms develop and collapse. KDMX velocity data has indicated weak low-level rotation with a couple of the stronger storms. Area VAD data shows very weak low-level SRH even with the MCV influence. With the 850 mb jet expected to increase farther west, this SRH is not expected to improve this evening. At most, a brief tornado could occur, though this threat is conditional. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41209433 41429432 41829418 42079348 41819187 41349146 40829167 40659204 40609231 40949283 41079390 41209433 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 22 22:34:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 22 22:34:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1756 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1756 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeast North Dakota and northeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222019Z - 222215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into early evening. Hail and strong gusts may occur with stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon within the post-outflow airmass. While early day convection and cloud cover have impacted the airmass to some degree, some recovery is apparent as temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints have been maintained in the upper 60s to low 70s. As a result, capping is eroding, and MLCAPE has increased to 1000-2000 J/kg. Ongoing storms may be somewhat elevated initially, but could become surface-based with time. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt and steep midlevel lapse rates suggests robust updrafts supporting isolated large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Given the influence of outflow and modification of the airmass from morning convection, convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain. Portions of the area may eventually need a severe thunderstorm watch, but timing and location is uncertain. ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45470046 46749959 47279828 46969709 46309676 45059717 44629788 44339914 44260010 44470063 44770080 45470046 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A cutoff low is expected to be located just off the central CA coast by D3/Thursday. This low should meander northward through the weekend into northern CA as it opens. Farther east and north, quasi-zonal flow will persist over the northern CONUS while a subtropical ridge begins to dominate the central and southern CONUS into next week. ...D3/Thursday-D4/Friday... Subtle mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the CA low will aid in a mix of wet and isolated dry thunderstorm chances from northern CA into far southern OR, southern ID, and far western/northern NV D3/Thursday. Fuels across these regions remain fairly receptive to fire starts. In addition to the threat of lighting starts, localized breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop during the afternoon near the OR/WA border. A small area of low critical probabilities has been introduced here. By D4/Friday isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible over the Sierra Crest and portions of southern OR and northwestern NV. Warm and breezy conditions will begin to return to the Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin. The latter conditions will persist through this weekend, though confidence in any one area reaching critical thresholds is not high enough to warrant additional low probability areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A cutoff low is expected to be located just off the central CA coast by D3/Thursday. This low should meander northward through the weekend into northern CA as it opens. Farther east and north, quasi-zonal flow will persist over the northern CONUS while a subtropical ridge begins to dominate the central and southern CONUS into next week. ...D3/Thursday-D4/Friday... Subtle mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the CA low will aid in a mix of wet and isolated dry thunderstorm chances from northern CA into far southern OR, southern ID, and far western/northern NV D3/Thursday. Fuels across these regions remain fairly receptive to fire starts. In addition to the threat of lighting starts, localized breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop during the afternoon near the OR/WA border. A small area of low critical probabilities has been introduced here. By D4/Friday isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible over the Sierra Crest and portions of southern OR and northwestern NV. Warm and breezy conditions will begin to return to the Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin. The latter conditions will persist through this weekend, though confidence in any one area reaching critical thresholds is not high enough to warrant additional low probability areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A cutoff low is expected to be located just off the central CA coast by D3/Thursday. This low should meander northward through the weekend into northern CA as it opens. Farther east and north, quasi-zonal flow will persist over the northern CONUS while a subtropical ridge begins to dominate the central and southern CONUS into next week. ...D3/Thursday-D4/Friday... Subtle mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the CA low will aid in a mix of wet and isolated dry thunderstorm chances from northern CA into far southern OR, southern ID, and far western/northern NV D3/Thursday. Fuels across these regions remain fairly receptive to fire starts. In addition to the threat of lighting starts, localized breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop during the afternoon near the OR/WA border. A small area of low critical probabilities has been introduced here. By D4/Friday isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible over the Sierra Crest and portions of southern OR and northwestern NV. Warm and breezy conditions will begin to return to the Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin. The latter conditions will persist through this weekend, though confidence in any one area reaching critical thresholds is not high enough to warrant additional low probability areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A cutoff low is expected to be located just off the central CA coast by D3/Thursday. This low should meander northward through the weekend into northern CA as it opens. Farther east and north, quasi-zonal flow will persist over the northern CONUS while a subtropical ridge begins to dominate the central and southern CONUS into next week. ...D3/Thursday-D4/Friday... Subtle mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the CA low will aid in a mix of wet and isolated dry thunderstorm chances from northern CA into far southern OR, southern ID, and far western/northern NV D3/Thursday. Fuels across these regions remain fairly receptive to fire starts. In addition to the threat of lighting starts, localized breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop during the afternoon near the OR/WA border. A small area of low critical probabilities has been introduced here. By D4/Friday isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible over the Sierra Crest and portions of southern OR and northwestern NV. Warm and breezy conditions will begin to return to the Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin. The latter conditions will persist through this weekend, though confidence in any one area reaching critical thresholds is not high enough to warrant additional low probability areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A cutoff low is expected to be located just off the central CA coast by D3/Thursday. This low should meander northward through the weekend into northern CA as it opens. Farther east and north, quasi-zonal flow will persist over the northern CONUS while a subtropical ridge begins to dominate the central and southern CONUS into next week. ...D3/Thursday-D4/Friday... Subtle mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the CA low will aid in a mix of wet and isolated dry thunderstorm chances from northern CA into far southern OR, southern ID, and far western/northern NV D3/Thursday. Fuels across these regions remain fairly receptive to fire starts. In addition to the threat of lighting starts, localized breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop during the afternoon near the OR/WA border. A small area of low critical probabilities has been introduced here. By D4/Friday isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible over the Sierra Crest and portions of southern OR and northwestern NV. Warm and breezy conditions will begin to return to the Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin. The latter conditions will persist through this weekend, though confidence in any one area reaching critical thresholds is not high enough to warrant additional low probability areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more