Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MN INTO FAR NORTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1753 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...north-central MN into far northwest WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221851Z - 221945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop this afternoon, although this potential is uncertain. Marginally severe hail and wind could be possible if stronger storms can emerge. DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm over central MN has shown some propensity for intensification over the past 30 minutes. This activity is moving into a downstream airmass that has heated into the upper 70s to low 80s with weakening inhibition. Modified 17z RAP forecast soundings suggest that if further intensification occurs, favorable deep shear and increasing instability could support a severe storm capable of producing large hail and strong/severe gusts. Given early day convection and lingering downstream cloud cover, it is unclear how this activity may evolve over the next couple of hours, or if additional storms will develop. Visible satellite imagery does show some deepening cumulus beneath the mid/high level clouds across northeast MN into far northwest WI, and trends will continued to be monitored for further storm development. Given uncertainty and impacts from early-day convection, a watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 45659435 45919482 46149490 46449489 46679459 46769399 46709231 46549173 46229173 46049190 45839242 45659344 45659435 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1752 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1752 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into southwest Georgia and parts of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221745Z - 221945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Damaging downburst winds will be possible across parts of eastern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through late afternoon as thunderstorms increase in coverage and intensity. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing within a corridor of higher low-level theta-e across eastern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle have shown signs of gradual intensification over the past 30 minutes with echo tops beginning to exceed 40 kft in a few deeper convective cores. Despite the very moist/buoyant environment (MLCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg), regional VWPs continue to sample very poor deep-layer wind shear, suggesting that convective mode will largely remain a collection of short-lived single-cell storms and cold-pool driven convective clusters (evidence of which is already noted across southwest GA where cold pool consolidation is beginning to take place). As such, the overall severe threat will remain very limited. However, a few damaging downbursts appear probable given very deep buoyancy profiles, PWAT values exceeding 2 inches, and steepening lapse rates within the lowest 2 km - all of which are favorable for accelerating water-loaded downdrafts. Downburst winds between 40-55 mph will be most common, but a few isolated gusts approaching 60 are possible. This potential should be maximized through peak heating when buoyancy and low-level lapse rates will both be maximized. ..Moore/Smith.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 33498588 33698578 33858559 33858537 33648514 33418504 32888493 32158454 31728418 31438380 31158334 30668301 30388311 30108352 30008403 29938446 29918492 30018547 30308590 30638610 31108621 31638618 33498588 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Update... A very subtle adjustment was made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for Wednesday (extended slightly southward to include more of the Sierra Crest). The previous discussion remains valid. Please see below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Organizing clusters of storms posing a risk for severe wind are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Wednesday, with ridge axis shifting east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the northern Plains. This wave will bring cooling aloft from the northern Plains toward the Upper Great Lakes, with lift focused near a surface low moving from southern MN toward Lake Superior. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low, extending from Upper MI into KS by 12Z Thursday. Persistent south/southwest 850 mb winds across the Plains will aid boundary layer mixing and northward transport of moisture toward the frontal zone. Enhanced low-level shear may develop near the warm front as it moves across northern WI into western Upper MI. Well behind the cold front, veering surface winds into the northern High Plains will lead to a destabilizing air mass late in the day. ...Upper MI to NE... Storms are forecast to be ongoing along or just behind the cold front from northern SD into northwest MN Wednesday morning, with minimal wind risk. Area of heating and destabilization ahead of the front and outflows will then support numerous storms along the boundary from western KS/central NE northeastward into MN/WI/Upper MI, with one or more lines or MCSs producing severe gusts. Depending on air mass quality near the warm front across northern WI into the western MI Upper Peninsula, enhanced SRH could yield a tornadic storm or two. ...Central to northern High Plains... Southeast surface winds beneath modest west to northwest flow aloft will lead to elongated hodographs sufficient to sustain southeastward-moving cells capable of hail. Lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep, but widely scattered instances of 1.00" hail appear likely from eastern WY to the Front Range during the late afternoon into early evening. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Organizing clusters of storms posing a risk for severe wind are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Wednesday, with ridge axis shifting east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the northern Plains. This wave will bring cooling aloft from the northern Plains toward the Upper Great Lakes, with lift focused near a surface low moving from southern MN toward Lake Superior. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low, extending from Upper MI into KS by 12Z Thursday. Persistent south/southwest 850 mb winds across the Plains will aid boundary layer mixing and northward transport of moisture toward the frontal zone. Enhanced low-level shear may develop near the warm front as it moves across northern WI into western Upper MI. Well behind the cold front, veering surface winds into the northern High Plains will lead to a destabilizing air mass late in the day. ...Upper MI to NE... Storms are forecast to be ongoing along or just behind the cold front from northern SD into northwest MN Wednesday morning, with minimal wind risk. Area of heating and destabilization ahead of the front and outflows will then support numerous storms along the boundary from western KS/central NE northeastward into MN/WI/Upper MI, with one or more lines or MCSs producing severe gusts. Depending on air mass quality near the warm front across northern WI into the western MI Upper Peninsula, enhanced SRH could yield a tornadic storm or two. ...Central to northern High Plains... Southeast surface winds beneath modest west to northwest flow aloft will lead to elongated hodographs sufficient to sustain southeastward-moving cells capable of hail. Lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep, but widely scattered instances of 1.00" hail appear likely from eastern WY to the Front Range during the late afternoon into early evening. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Organizing clusters of storms posing a risk for severe wind are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Wednesday, with ridge axis shifting east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the northern Plains. This wave will bring cooling aloft from the northern Plains toward the Upper Great Lakes, with lift focused near a surface low moving from southern MN toward Lake Superior. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low, extending from Upper MI into KS by 12Z Thursday. Persistent south/southwest 850 mb winds across the Plains will aid boundary layer mixing and northward transport of moisture toward the frontal zone. Enhanced low-level shear may develop near the warm front as it moves across northern WI into western Upper MI. Well behind the cold front, veering surface winds into the northern High Plains will lead to a destabilizing air mass late in the day. ...Upper MI to NE... Storms are forecast to be ongoing along or just behind the cold front from northern SD into northwest MN Wednesday morning, with minimal wind risk. Area of heating and destabilization ahead of the front and outflows will then support numerous storms along the boundary from western KS/central NE northeastward into MN/WI/Upper MI, with one or more lines or MCSs producing severe gusts. Depending on air mass quality near the warm front across northern WI into the western MI Upper Peninsula, enhanced SRH could yield a tornadic storm or two. ...Central to northern High Plains... Southeast surface winds beneath modest west to northwest flow aloft will lead to elongated hodographs sufficient to sustain southeastward-moving cells capable of hail. Lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep, but widely scattered instances of 1.00" hail appear likely from eastern WY to the Front Range during the late afternoon into early evening. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Organizing clusters of storms posing a risk for severe wind are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Wednesday, with ridge axis shifting east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the northern Plains. This wave will bring cooling aloft from the northern Plains toward the Upper Great Lakes, with lift focused near a surface low moving from southern MN toward Lake Superior. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low, extending from Upper MI into KS by 12Z Thursday. Persistent south/southwest 850 mb winds across the Plains will aid boundary layer mixing and northward transport of moisture toward the frontal zone. Enhanced low-level shear may develop near the warm front as it moves across northern WI into western Upper MI. Well behind the cold front, veering surface winds into the northern High Plains will lead to a destabilizing air mass late in the day. ...Upper MI to NE... Storms are forecast to be ongoing along or just behind the cold front from northern SD into northwest MN Wednesday morning, with minimal wind risk. Area of heating and destabilization ahead of the front and outflows will then support numerous storms along the boundary from western KS/central NE northeastward into MN/WI/Upper MI, with one or more lines or MCSs producing severe gusts. Depending on air mass quality near the warm front across northern WI into the western MI Upper Peninsula, enhanced SRH could yield a tornadic storm or two. ...Central to northern High Plains... Southeast surface winds beneath modest west to northwest flow aloft will lead to elongated hodographs sufficient to sustain southeastward-moving cells capable of hail. Lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep, but widely scattered instances of 1.00" hail appear likely from eastern WY to the Front Range during the late afternoon into early evening. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Organizing clusters of storms posing a risk for severe wind are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Wednesday, with ridge axis shifting east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the northern Plains. This wave will bring cooling aloft from the northern Plains toward the Upper Great Lakes, with lift focused near a surface low moving from southern MN toward Lake Superior. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low, extending from Upper MI into KS by 12Z Thursday. Persistent south/southwest 850 mb winds across the Plains will aid boundary layer mixing and northward transport of moisture toward the frontal zone. Enhanced low-level shear may develop near the warm front as it moves across northern WI into western Upper MI. Well behind the cold front, veering surface winds into the northern High Plains will lead to a destabilizing air mass late in the day. ...Upper MI to NE... Storms are forecast to be ongoing along or just behind the cold front from northern SD into northwest MN Wednesday morning, with minimal wind risk. Area of heating and destabilization ahead of the front and outflows will then support numerous storms along the boundary from western KS/central NE northeastward into MN/WI/Upper MI, with one or more lines or MCSs producing severe gusts. Depending on air mass quality near the warm front across northern WI into the western MI Upper Peninsula, enhanced SRH could yield a tornadic storm or two. ...Central to northern High Plains... Southeast surface winds beneath modest west to northwest flow aloft will lead to elongated hodographs sufficient to sustain southeastward-moving cells capable of hail. Lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep, but widely scattered instances of 1.00" hail appear likely from eastern WY to the Front Range during the late afternoon into early evening. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Organizing clusters of storms posing a risk for severe wind are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Wednesday, with ridge axis shifting east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the northern Plains. This wave will bring cooling aloft from the northern Plains toward the Upper Great Lakes, with lift focused near a surface low moving from southern MN toward Lake Superior. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low, extending from Upper MI into KS by 12Z Thursday. Persistent south/southwest 850 mb winds across the Plains will aid boundary layer mixing and northward transport of moisture toward the frontal zone. Enhanced low-level shear may develop near the warm front as it moves across northern WI into western Upper MI. Well behind the cold front, veering surface winds into the northern High Plains will lead to a destabilizing air mass late in the day. ...Upper MI to NE... Storms are forecast to be ongoing along or just behind the cold front from northern SD into northwest MN Wednesday morning, with minimal wind risk. Area of heating and destabilization ahead of the front and outflows will then support numerous storms along the boundary from western KS/central NE northeastward into MN/WI/Upper MI, with one or more lines or MCSs producing severe gusts. Depending on air mass quality near the warm front across northern WI into the western MI Upper Peninsula, enhanced SRH could yield a tornadic storm or two. ...Central to northern High Plains... Southeast surface winds beneath modest west to northwest flow aloft will lead to elongated hodographs sufficient to sustain southeastward-moving cells capable of hail. Lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep, but widely scattered instances of 1.00" hail appear likely from eastern WY to the Front Range during the late afternoon into early evening. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more