Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Discussion... Models indicate that weak mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific Northwest and across California into the Great Basin will persist through this period, but mid-level heights downstream across the Rockies, much of the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley and adjacent portions of southern Canada are forecast to rise within consolidating large-scale anticyclonic flow. Farther east, subtle mid-level troughing associated with a couple of perturbations may overspread the Great Lakes region. In lower latitudes, it appears that the prominent center of highest mid-level heights (in excess of 594 dm at 500 mb) will begin expanding westward out of the Southeast, toward the central and southern Great Plains. However, a weak wave on its southern periphery may continue slowly inland of the northwest Gulf coast. In lower levels, a remnant frontal zone may become increasingly diffuse while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and returning northward through southern portions of the Great Lakes. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes Region... Confidence is low, but models suggest that a possible convectively augmented perturbation may progress east of the Dakotas through the upper Great Lakes region during this period, with another convectively generated or augmented perturbation, emerging from the Great Plains to its south, turning eastward across the Midwest into southern portions of the Great Lakes. It appears that this may be accompanied by a belt of 20-40 kt westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow. With the boundary-layer becoming characterized by seasonably high moisture content and sizable CAPE, along and south of the remnant frontal zone by Saturday afternoon, mid-level forcing for ascent may support an evolving cluster of storms. Although mid-level lapse rates may be modest to weak, the modest shear/westerly deep-layer mean flow may be sufficient to support a developing risk for strong to severe wind gusts as activity progresses eastward, aided by heavy precipitation loading and evaporative cooling/melting in downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Confidence is low due to uncertain forcing for convective development across the northern Rockies, and potential for substantive inhibition eastward into the Great Plains. However, models suggest areas of stronger sub-synoptic ascent may overspread the higher terrain of southern Montana by late Saturday afternoon and evening. In the presence of a deeply mixed boundary layer with modest CAPE, this may become supportive of scattered upscale growing thunderstorm development capable of produce strong downbursts. There appears some potential for consolidating cold pools to support intensifying thunderstorm development, with a continuing risk for strong to severe surface gusts, in better potential boundary-layer instability across southeastern Montana into central North Dakota Saturday evening, before activity weakens in the presence of increasing inhibition. ..Kerr.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible Saturday through Saturday night, across parts of the Midwest into southern Great Lakes region and across parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. ...Discussion... Models indicate that weak mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific Northwest and across California into the Great Basin will persist through this period, but mid-level heights downstream across the Rockies, much of the Great Plains/Mississippi Valley and adjacent portions of southern Canada are forecast to rise within consolidating large-scale anticyclonic flow. Farther east, subtle mid-level troughing associated with a couple of perturbations may overspread the Great Lakes region. In lower latitudes, it appears that the prominent center of highest mid-level heights (in excess of 594 dm at 500 mb) will begin expanding westward out of the Southeast, toward the central and southern Great Plains. However, a weak wave on its southern periphery may continue slowly inland of the northwest Gulf coast. In lower levels, a remnant frontal zone may become increasingly diffuse while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and returning northward through southern portions of the Great Lakes. ...Midwest into southern Great Lakes Region... Confidence is low, but models suggest that a possible convectively augmented perturbation may progress east of the Dakotas through the upper Great Lakes region during this period, with another convectively generated or augmented perturbation, emerging from the Great Plains to its south, turning eastward across the Midwest into southern portions of the Great Lakes. It appears that this may be accompanied by a belt of 20-40 kt westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow. With the boundary-layer becoming characterized by seasonably high moisture content and sizable CAPE, along and south of the remnant frontal zone by Saturday afternoon, mid-level forcing for ascent may support an evolving cluster of storms. Although mid-level lapse rates may be modest to weak, the modest shear/westerly deep-layer mean flow may be sufficient to support a developing risk for strong to severe wind gusts as activity progresses eastward, aided by heavy precipitation loading and evaporative cooling/melting in downdrafts. ...Northern Rockies into the Dakotas... Confidence is low due to uncertain forcing for convective development across the northern Rockies, and potential for substantive inhibition eastward into the Great Plains. However, models suggest areas of stronger sub-synoptic ascent may overspread the higher terrain of southern Montana by late Saturday afternoon and evening. In the presence of a deeply mixed boundary layer with modest CAPE, this may become supportive of scattered upscale growing thunderstorm development capable of produce strong downbursts. There appears some potential for consolidating cold pools to support intensifying thunderstorm development, with a continuing risk for strong to severe surface gusts, in better potential boundary-layer instability across southeastern Montana into central North Dakota Saturday evening, before activity weakens in the presence of increasing inhibition. ..Kerr.. 07/24/2025 Read more

MD 1769 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO EASTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1769 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...central to eastern IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240546Z - 240715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe gust threat may accompany a portion of a QLCS, mainly centered on the US-30/I-80 corridors during the next few hours. Expected localized coverage suggests Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...Some surge within a broader QLCS has occurred within the apex of outflow intersections northwest of the DSM Metro Area, with measured severe gusts at personal weather stations in Carroll County earlier this hour. A swath of 50-65 kt inbound velocities around 2500-3000 ft AGL have recently progressed into Greene County. Given ample buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and a 40-45 kt rear-inflow jet per OAX VWP data, it is plausible that a confined swath of strong to embedded severe gusts may persist over the next 2-3 hours. This is likely to be centered on the US-30/I-80 corridors, where the portion of the line remains more progressive atop preceding outflow from downshear convection. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 42259315 42589230 42719178 42689149 42409130 42119149 41669170 41519291 41499374 41629411 42009402 42079379 42259315 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, and perhaps a developing line, may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. The development of an organized cluster of storms with potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts is also possible across North Dakota by Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that fairly significant troughing within the westerlies will dig across Quebec, northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes during this period. Weaker troughing is also forecast to dig into portions of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, as well as inland across California through the Great Basin. Across much of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes into middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard, mid/upper heights are likely to remain generally high. However, it still appears that a subtle perturbation progressing across and east of the northern Rockies could suppress mid-level heights across North Dakota and adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Friday through Friday night. Latest model output appears increasingly suggestive that a notable MCV may evolve within the weak flow across the central Great Plains by early Friday, before migrating slowly northeastward, with a number of weaker convectively generated or enhanced perturbations downstream, across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. But, this remains much more uncertain at the present time. In lower levels, a cold front is likely to advance across much of the Northeast, while its trailing flank continues to stall, weaken and perhaps slowly shift northward across the Ohio Valley through central Great Plains. ...New England into northern Mid Atlantic... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential storm coverage and the risk of severe weather for Friday. How far south the cold front advances into New England before the boundary-layer is able to destabilize appreciably also remains unclear. However, the front across New England, and the pre-frontal trough across the northern Mid Atlantic, probably will become the focus of at least scattered thunderstorm development, aided by forcing associated with the digging mid-level trough. Lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may not become particularly steep, but seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content advecting ahead of the cold front may still contribute to moderate mixed-layer CAPE with daytime heating. In the presence of 20-40+ kt westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading much of the region, the environment may become conducive to organized convection, perhaps including a couple of supercells, and upscale growing southeastward propagating clusters or a developing line accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at 5 percent, but it is still possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ...North Dakota... The NAM, in particular, continues to generate a notable convective perturbation across North Dakota, mainly late Friday into Friday night. This is supported by other model output to an extent, and is generally focused where lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection might become maximized by Friday evening, on the leading edge of a northward advecting plume of warm and increasingly capping air around the 700 mb level. Beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, it appears that low-level moistening will contribute to moderate large CAPE supportive of vigorous convection, with thermodynamic profiles conducive to downbursts and a strengthening cold pool as forcing for ascent contributes to consolidating convection. ...Remainder of Great Plains into Ohio Valley... Beneath the mid-level ridging, destabilization across the high plains, and along the remnant front across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, may become supportive of widely scattered vigorous thunderstorm development. Due to generally warm mid/upper thermodynamic profiles and weak flow/shear, localized damaging wind gust appears the primary potentially severe hazard. It is not yet clear that the coverage of any such activity will become sufficient to support introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. ..Kerr.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, and perhaps a developing line, may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. The development of an organized cluster of storms with potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts is also possible across North Dakota by Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that fairly significant troughing within the westerlies will dig across Quebec, northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes during this period. Weaker troughing is also forecast to dig into portions of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, as well as inland across California through the Great Basin. Across much of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes into middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard, mid/upper heights are likely to remain generally high. However, it still appears that a subtle perturbation progressing across and east of the northern Rockies could suppress mid-level heights across North Dakota and adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Friday through Friday night. Latest model output appears increasingly suggestive that a notable MCV may evolve within the weak flow across the central Great Plains by early Friday, before migrating slowly northeastward, with a number of weaker convectively generated or enhanced perturbations downstream, across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. But, this remains much more uncertain at the present time. In lower levels, a cold front is likely to advance across much of the Northeast, while its trailing flank continues to stall, weaken and perhaps slowly shift northward across the Ohio Valley through central Great Plains. ...New England into northern Mid Atlantic... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential storm coverage and the risk of severe weather for Friday. How far south the cold front advances into New England before the boundary-layer is able to destabilize appreciably also remains unclear. However, the front across New England, and the pre-frontal trough across the northern Mid Atlantic, probably will become the focus of at least scattered thunderstorm development, aided by forcing associated with the digging mid-level trough. Lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may not become particularly steep, but seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content advecting ahead of the cold front may still contribute to moderate mixed-layer CAPE with daytime heating. In the presence of 20-40+ kt westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading much of the region, the environment may become conducive to organized convection, perhaps including a couple of supercells, and upscale growing southeastward propagating clusters or a developing line accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at 5 percent, but it is still possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ...North Dakota... The NAM, in particular, continues to generate a notable convective perturbation across North Dakota, mainly late Friday into Friday night. This is supported by other model output to an extent, and is generally focused where lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection might become maximized by Friday evening, on the leading edge of a northward advecting plume of warm and increasingly capping air around the 700 mb level. Beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, it appears that low-level moistening will contribute to moderate large CAPE supportive of vigorous convection, with thermodynamic profiles conducive to downbursts and a strengthening cold pool as forcing for ascent contributes to consolidating convection. ...Remainder of Great Plains into Ohio Valley... Beneath the mid-level ridging, destabilization across the high plains, and along the remnant front across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, may become supportive of widely scattered vigorous thunderstorm development. Due to generally warm mid/upper thermodynamic profiles and weak flow/shear, localized damaging wind gust appears the primary potentially severe hazard. It is not yet clear that the coverage of any such activity will become sufficient to support introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. ..Kerr.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, and perhaps a developing line, may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. The development of an organized cluster of storms with potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts is also possible across North Dakota by Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that fairly significant troughing within the westerlies will dig across Quebec, northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes during this period. Weaker troughing is also forecast to dig into portions of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, as well as inland across California through the Great Basin. Across much of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes into middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard, mid/upper heights are likely to remain generally high. However, it still appears that a subtle perturbation progressing across and east of the northern Rockies could suppress mid-level heights across North Dakota and adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Friday through Friday night. Latest model output appears increasingly suggestive that a notable MCV may evolve within the weak flow across the central Great Plains by early Friday, before migrating slowly northeastward, with a number of weaker convectively generated or enhanced perturbations downstream, across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. But, this remains much more uncertain at the present time. In lower levels, a cold front is likely to advance across much of the Northeast, while its trailing flank continues to stall, weaken and perhaps slowly shift northward across the Ohio Valley through central Great Plains. ...New England into northern Mid Atlantic... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential storm coverage and the risk of severe weather for Friday. How far south the cold front advances into New England before the boundary-layer is able to destabilize appreciably also remains unclear. However, the front across New England, and the pre-frontal trough across the northern Mid Atlantic, probably will become the focus of at least scattered thunderstorm development, aided by forcing associated with the digging mid-level trough. Lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may not become particularly steep, but seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content advecting ahead of the cold front may still contribute to moderate mixed-layer CAPE with daytime heating. In the presence of 20-40+ kt westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading much of the region, the environment may become conducive to organized convection, perhaps including a couple of supercells, and upscale growing southeastward propagating clusters or a developing line accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at 5 percent, but it is still possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ...North Dakota... The NAM, in particular, continues to generate a notable convective perturbation across North Dakota, mainly late Friday into Friday night. This is supported by other model output to an extent, and is generally focused where lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection might become maximized by Friday evening, on the leading edge of a northward advecting plume of warm and increasingly capping air around the 700 mb level. Beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, it appears that low-level moistening will contribute to moderate large CAPE supportive of vigorous convection, with thermodynamic profiles conducive to downbursts and a strengthening cold pool as forcing for ascent contributes to consolidating convection. ...Remainder of Great Plains into Ohio Valley... Beneath the mid-level ridging, destabilization across the high plains, and along the remnant front across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, may become supportive of widely scattered vigorous thunderstorm development. Due to generally warm mid/upper thermodynamic profiles and weak flow/shear, localized damaging wind gust appears the primary potentially severe hazard. It is not yet clear that the coverage of any such activity will become sufficient to support introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. ..Kerr.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, and perhaps a developing line, may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. The development of an organized cluster of storms with potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts is also possible across North Dakota by Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that fairly significant troughing within the westerlies will dig across Quebec, northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes during this period. Weaker troughing is also forecast to dig into portions of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, as well as inland across California through the Great Basin. Across much of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes into middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard, mid/upper heights are likely to remain generally high. However, it still appears that a subtle perturbation progressing across and east of the northern Rockies could suppress mid-level heights across North Dakota and adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Friday through Friday night. Latest model output appears increasingly suggestive that a notable MCV may evolve within the weak flow across the central Great Plains by early Friday, before migrating slowly northeastward, with a number of weaker convectively generated or enhanced perturbations downstream, across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. But, this remains much more uncertain at the present time. In lower levels, a cold front is likely to advance across much of the Northeast, while its trailing flank continues to stall, weaken and perhaps slowly shift northward across the Ohio Valley through central Great Plains. ...New England into northern Mid Atlantic... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential storm coverage and the risk of severe weather for Friday. How far south the cold front advances into New England before the boundary-layer is able to destabilize appreciably also remains unclear. However, the front across New England, and the pre-frontal trough across the northern Mid Atlantic, probably will become the focus of at least scattered thunderstorm development, aided by forcing associated with the digging mid-level trough. Lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may not become particularly steep, but seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content advecting ahead of the cold front may still contribute to moderate mixed-layer CAPE with daytime heating. In the presence of 20-40+ kt westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading much of the region, the environment may become conducive to organized convection, perhaps including a couple of supercells, and upscale growing southeastward propagating clusters or a developing line accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being maintained at 5 percent, but it is still possible that severe probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ...North Dakota... The NAM, in particular, continues to generate a notable convective perturbation across North Dakota, mainly late Friday into Friday night. This is supported by other model output to an extent, and is generally focused where lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection might become maximized by Friday evening, on the leading edge of a northward advecting plume of warm and increasingly capping air around the 700 mb level. Beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, it appears that low-level moistening will contribute to moderate large CAPE supportive of vigorous convection, with thermodynamic profiles conducive to downbursts and a strengthening cold pool as forcing for ascent contributes to consolidating convection. ...Remainder of Great Plains into Ohio Valley... Beneath the mid-level ridging, destabilization across the high plains, and along the remnant front across the central Great Plains through Ohio Valley, may become supportive of widely scattered vigorous thunderstorm development. Due to generally warm mid/upper thermodynamic profiles and weak flow/shear, localized damaging wind gust appears the primary potentially severe hazard. It is not yet clear that the coverage of any such activity will become sufficient to support introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. ..Kerr.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts over the northern and central High Plains. ...Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes... The Marginal Risk has been maintained across lower MI and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes, though higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in a sufficient coverage of organized storm development later today into this evening. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima (including potentially one or more MCVs) will move across parts of the Great Lakes region later today, within a broader large-scale upper-level trough. A cold front will move southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day into the evening. Diurnal heating of a richly moist airmass will result in the development of moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the front this afternoon. This destabilization will occur beneath moderate low/midlevel southwesterly flow (25-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer). The resulting environment will be favorable for outflow-dominant storm clusters capable of wind damage. However, details of storm coverage and timing remain uncertain, due to weak frontal convergence and generally modest large-scale ascent, outside of the potential influence of any MCVs. There is some potential for development relatively early in the day across central/northern Lower MI, when somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates may still be in place. This scenario may be the greatest relative threat for organized storms, though guidance varies regarding the coverage of storms through early afternoon. Otherwise, midlevel temperatures will tend to warm by later afternoon, though any stronger cells/clusters would still be capable of producing wind damage as low-level lapse rates steepen. Storms may spread into parts of western NY from Ontario late this evening. While a general weakening trend is expected by this time, strong to locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late tonight before convection subsides. ...Northern MO/IL/IN into central/eastern KS and northern OK... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening from central/eastern KS and northern OK into parts of northern MO/IL/IN, along and ahead of a cold front. Somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will be present across northern IL/IN early in the day, but gradual weakening of flow is generally forecast with time. Farther southwest, flow is forecast to remain rather weak into northern MO and the central/southern Plains. As a result, storm organization may tend to be limited, but moderate to strong buoyancy and large PW (potentially 2 inches or greater) will support a threat of localized downbursts. One or more small clusters could develop and pose a threat for more concentrated wind damage, but confidence in the details of this potential scenario remains low. ...High Plains... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will generally be nebulous in the wake of a departing shortwave trough, but at least isolated storm development is possible near the adjacent higher terrain. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization. Initial discrete cells may pose a threat of hail, while some outflow amalgamation could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected into parts of the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Dean/Thornton.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts over the northern and central High Plains. ...Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes... The Marginal Risk has been maintained across lower MI and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes, though higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in a sufficient coverage of organized storm development later today into this evening. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima (including potentially one or more MCVs) will move across parts of the Great Lakes region later today, within a broader large-scale upper-level trough. A cold front will move southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day into the evening. Diurnal heating of a richly moist airmass will result in the development of moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the front this afternoon. This destabilization will occur beneath moderate low/midlevel southwesterly flow (25-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer). The resulting environment will be favorable for outflow-dominant storm clusters capable of wind damage. However, details of storm coverage and timing remain uncertain, due to weak frontal convergence and generally modest large-scale ascent, outside of the potential influence of any MCVs. There is some potential for development relatively early in the day across central/northern Lower MI, when somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates may still be in place. This scenario may be the greatest relative threat for organized storms, though guidance varies regarding the coverage of storms through early afternoon. Otherwise, midlevel temperatures will tend to warm by later afternoon, though any stronger cells/clusters would still be capable of producing wind damage as low-level lapse rates steepen. Storms may spread into parts of western NY from Ontario late this evening. While a general weakening trend is expected by this time, strong to locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late tonight before convection subsides. ...Northern MO/IL/IN into central/eastern KS and northern OK... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening from central/eastern KS and northern OK into parts of northern MO/IL/IN, along and ahead of a cold front. Somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will be present across northern IL/IN early in the day, but gradual weakening of flow is generally forecast with time. Farther southwest, flow is forecast to remain rather weak into northern MO and the central/southern Plains. As a result, storm organization may tend to be limited, but moderate to strong buoyancy and large PW (potentially 2 inches or greater) will support a threat of localized downbursts. One or more small clusters could develop and pose a threat for more concentrated wind damage, but confidence in the details of this potential scenario remains low. ...High Plains... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will generally be nebulous in the wake of a departing shortwave trough, but at least isolated storm development is possible near the adjacent higher terrain. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization. Initial discrete cells may pose a threat of hail, while some outflow amalgamation could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected into parts of the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Dean/Thornton.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts over the northern and central High Plains. ...Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes... The Marginal Risk has been maintained across lower MI and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes, though higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in a sufficient coverage of organized storm development later today into this evening. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima (including potentially one or more MCVs) will move across parts of the Great Lakes region later today, within a broader large-scale upper-level trough. A cold front will move southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day into the evening. Diurnal heating of a richly moist airmass will result in the development of moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the front this afternoon. This destabilization will occur beneath moderate low/midlevel southwesterly flow (25-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer). The resulting environment will be favorable for outflow-dominant storm clusters capable of wind damage. However, details of storm coverage and timing remain uncertain, due to weak frontal convergence and generally modest large-scale ascent, outside of the potential influence of any MCVs. There is some potential for development relatively early in the day across central/northern Lower MI, when somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates may still be in place. This scenario may be the greatest relative threat for organized storms, though guidance varies regarding the coverage of storms through early afternoon. Otherwise, midlevel temperatures will tend to warm by later afternoon, though any stronger cells/clusters would still be capable of producing wind damage as low-level lapse rates steepen. Storms may spread into parts of western NY from Ontario late this evening. While a general weakening trend is expected by this time, strong to locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late tonight before convection subsides. ...Northern MO/IL/IN into central/eastern KS and northern OK... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening from central/eastern KS and northern OK into parts of northern MO/IL/IN, along and ahead of a cold front. Somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will be present across northern IL/IN early in the day, but gradual weakening of flow is generally forecast with time. Farther southwest, flow is forecast to remain rather weak into northern MO and the central/southern Plains. As a result, storm organization may tend to be limited, but moderate to strong buoyancy and large PW (potentially 2 inches or greater) will support a threat of localized downbursts. One or more small clusters could develop and pose a threat for more concentrated wind damage, but confidence in the details of this potential scenario remains low. ...High Plains... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will generally be nebulous in the wake of a departing shortwave trough, but at least isolated storm development is possible near the adjacent higher terrain. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization. Initial discrete cells may pose a threat of hail, while some outflow amalgamation could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected into parts of the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Dean/Thornton.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts over the northern and central High Plains. ...Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes... The Marginal Risk has been maintained across lower MI and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes, though higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in a sufficient coverage of organized storm development later today into this evening. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima (including potentially one or more MCVs) will move across parts of the Great Lakes region later today, within a broader large-scale upper-level trough. A cold front will move southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day into the evening. Diurnal heating of a richly moist airmass will result in the development of moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the front this afternoon. This destabilization will occur beneath moderate low/midlevel southwesterly flow (25-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer). The resulting environment will be favorable for outflow-dominant storm clusters capable of wind damage. However, details of storm coverage and timing remain uncertain, due to weak frontal convergence and generally modest large-scale ascent, outside of the potential influence of any MCVs. There is some potential for development relatively early in the day across central/northern Lower MI, when somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates may still be in place. This scenario may be the greatest relative threat for organized storms, though guidance varies regarding the coverage of storms through early afternoon. Otherwise, midlevel temperatures will tend to warm by later afternoon, though any stronger cells/clusters would still be capable of producing wind damage as low-level lapse rates steepen. Storms may spread into parts of western NY from Ontario late this evening. While a general weakening trend is expected by this time, strong to locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late tonight before convection subsides. ...Northern MO/IL/IN into central/eastern KS and northern OK... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening from central/eastern KS and northern OK into parts of northern MO/IL/IN, along and ahead of a cold front. Somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will be present across northern IL/IN early in the day, but gradual weakening of flow is generally forecast with time. Farther southwest, flow is forecast to remain rather weak into northern MO and the central/southern Plains. As a result, storm organization may tend to be limited, but moderate to strong buoyancy and large PW (potentially 2 inches or greater) will support a threat of localized downbursts. One or more small clusters could develop and pose a threat for more concentrated wind damage, but confidence in the details of this potential scenario remains low. ...High Plains... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will generally be nebulous in the wake of a departing shortwave trough, but at least isolated storm development is possible near the adjacent higher terrain. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization. Initial discrete cells may pose a threat of hail, while some outflow amalgamation could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected into parts of the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Dean/Thornton.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts over the northern and central High Plains. ...Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes... The Marginal Risk has been maintained across lower MI and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes, though higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in a sufficient coverage of organized storm development later today into this evening. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima (including potentially one or more MCVs) will move across parts of the Great Lakes region later today, within a broader large-scale upper-level trough. A cold front will move southeastward across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day into the evening. Diurnal heating of a richly moist airmass will result in the development of moderate buoyancy along/ahead of the front this afternoon. This destabilization will occur beneath moderate low/midlevel southwesterly flow (25-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer). The resulting environment will be favorable for outflow-dominant storm clusters capable of wind damage. However, details of storm coverage and timing remain uncertain, due to weak frontal convergence and generally modest large-scale ascent, outside of the potential influence of any MCVs. There is some potential for development relatively early in the day across central/northern Lower MI, when somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates may still be in place. This scenario may be the greatest relative threat for organized storms, though guidance varies regarding the coverage of storms through early afternoon. Otherwise, midlevel temperatures will tend to warm by later afternoon, though any stronger cells/clusters would still be capable of producing wind damage as low-level lapse rates steepen. Storms may spread into parts of western NY from Ontario late this evening. While a general weakening trend is expected by this time, strong to locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late tonight before convection subsides. ...Northern MO/IL/IN into central/eastern KS and northern OK... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening from central/eastern KS and northern OK into parts of northern MO/IL/IN, along and ahead of a cold front. Somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will be present across northern IL/IN early in the day, but gradual weakening of flow is generally forecast with time. Farther southwest, flow is forecast to remain rather weak into northern MO and the central/southern Plains. As a result, storm organization may tend to be limited, but moderate to strong buoyancy and large PW (potentially 2 inches or greater) will support a threat of localized downbursts. One or more small clusters could develop and pose a threat for more concentrated wind damage, but confidence in the details of this potential scenario remains low. ...High Plains... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop across parts of the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will generally be nebulous in the wake of a departing shortwave trough, but at least isolated storm development is possible near the adjacent higher terrain. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization. Initial discrete cells may pose a threat of hail, while some outflow amalgamation could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected into parts of the southern High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Dean/Thornton.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will continue inland on D2/Friday, with more widely scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will remain possible on the periphery of the deeper moisture. As such, an area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm potential was maintained across the portions of the Sierras in northern California into eastern Oregon, northern Nevada, and central Idaho. Here, lower QPF amounts are forecast and fuels remain receptive to fire spread. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will bring moisture in across portions of northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A trough is expected to dig into the Pacific Northwest, with increasing westerly flow overspreading the Cascades. Some locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the Cascade Gaps. ...Dry Thunderstorms... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of northern California and southern Oregon with the increase in moisture and inland progression of the upper low. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected a moisture increases through the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer conditions will be initially very dry, though training storms will likely lead to moistening through time. It is likely that localized areas of wetting rainfall will occur, but productive lighting activity will likely lead to strikes outside of the heavier cores. An area of Scattered Dry Thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook, as overall broad QPF amounts appear light and fuels remain critically dry. A broader area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk was reduced across north-central California where PWs will be around 1.00". The broader area extending into southern Oregon, Idaho and northern Nevada was maintained. ..Thornton.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more