Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A cutoff low is expected to be located just off the central CA coast by D3/Thursday. This low should meander northward through the weekend into northern CA as it opens. Farther east and north, quasi-zonal flow will persist over the northern CONUS while a subtropical ridge begins to dominate the central and southern CONUS into next week. ...D3/Thursday-D4/Friday... Subtle mid-level ascent and moisture accompanying the CA low will aid in a mix of wet and isolated dry thunderstorm chances from northern CA into far southern OR, southern ID, and far western/northern NV D3/Thursday. Fuels across these regions remain fairly receptive to fire starts. In addition to the threat of lighting starts, localized breezy southwesterly winds are expected to develop during the afternoon near the OR/WA border. A small area of low critical probabilities has been introduced here. By D4/Friday isolated dry lightning strikes will remain possible over the Sierra Crest and portions of southern OR and northwestern NV. Warm and breezy conditions will begin to return to the Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin. The latter conditions will persist through this weekend, though confidence in any one area reaching critical thresholds is not high enough to warrant additional low probability areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1755 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1755 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...northern WY into southeast MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222000Z - 222200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern Montana and northern Wyoming this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Occasionally robust thunderstorms have developed over higher terrain in portions of southern MT and northern WY. Weak inhibition remains downstream over the adjacent high Plains, but additional heating and increasing ascent should allow for storms to become sustained further from the terrain with time into late afternoon. Regional VWP data shows elongated, straight hodographs amid steep midlevel lapse rates. While instability is muted due to the drier, post-frontal low-level airmass, MLCAPE will still be sufficient to sustain updrafts. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for hail (possibly up to 2 inches, especially over far southeast MT) will be possible over the next several hours. Trends will be monitored and a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed for parts of the discussion area later this afternoon. ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 45781046 46181020 46620976 46870927 46890803 46750614 46530494 46260428 46040411 45650405 44750412 44330490 44020652 43980783 43990872 44310889 44910939 45321021 45781046 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1754 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1754 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...Southern South Carolina into eastern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221855Z - 222100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next several hours across southern South Carolina and into eastern Georgia. While the overall severe threat will remain low, a few damaging downbursts will be possible. DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery and regional echo top data shows steady intensification of convection near Charlseton, SC associated with a developing sea breeze boundary. Additionally, the early stages of mature convection are noted along a weak arcing confluence band from central SC into east-central GA. Strong insolation downstream of the developing storms has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 90s within a very moist air mass (mid/upper 70s dewpoints). This has not only eliminated any appreciable inhibition, but has allowed low-level lapse rates to steepen to around 8 C/km and MLCAPE to increase to around 3000 J/kg downstream over southern SC and eastern GA. Flow within the lowest 8 km remains very weak (around 15 knots or less) per regional VWPs, which will limit storm organization and longevity. However, focused thunderstorm initiation along the confluence zone and/or sea breeze should promote cold pool consolidation and the emergence of a handful of weak convective clusters that will migrate into the regional CAPE maximum by late afternoon. As this occurs, convective intensity should increase with an attendant rise in the probability for damaging to severe downburst winds (most likely between 45-60 mph) through early evening. Such downbursts will likely remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Smith.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 33908187 33448300 33028334 32628353 32188354 31748338 31228297 31048249 31068200 31198167 31368150 31858124 32278092 32548059 32778020 32877991 32977966 33077952 33197948 33367950 33487963 33657991 33888036 33978075 33998132 33908187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...20z Update... Minor updates were made to the D1 Convective Outlook to reduce the Marginal Risk area across North Dakota into northern Minnesota where the front has shifted southward with influence from morning convection. Otherwise, the Slight Risk across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest remains on track. There continues to remain some uncertainty on what the corridor for greater wind risk will be this evening. Cloud cover remains across much of the Slight Risk area. It is mostly clear across southern South Dakota into Wyoming, where temperatures are warming. Thunderstorm activity has begun across the high terrain in Montana and Wyoming. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud debris and convective outflow from ongoing and early morning shower/thunderstorm activity. A composite outflow/front is draped from the ND/MN Red River Valley west-southwestward into northwest SD, with another frontal segment extending into northern WY. Weak to neutral height rises across the northern Plains this afternoon will likely not support a northward oscillation of the boundary into southwest ND. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly 500-mb flow overhead the north-central Rockies and adjacent plains will be downstream of a larger-scale trough pivoting east across the northern Rockies through tonight. In agreement with earlier forecast thinking, it appears probable that diurnal storms will favor the general area of northern WY/southern MT. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates and a modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Some diurnal hail/wind threat may develop across IA in association with the lower MO Valley MCV. Uncertainty remains high regarding this scenario. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, heating will contribute to the development of steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...AND CENTERED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with damaging wind gust potential. Areas of strong to damaging gusts may also occur from southeast Wyoming across the Front Range and into northeast New Mexico. ...From IA/WI to Lower MI/Lower Great Lakes... A weak shortwave trough will move across the area, with midlevel winds to around 30 kt as far south as northern IL/IN. Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front, with storms developing from eastern IA into northern Lower MI between 18-21Z. Deep-layer means winds of 25-35 kt along with heating of the moist air mass should result in scattered strong to damaging gusts during the afternoon. A few strong storms could persist from the Mid MS Valley toward western PA overnight as westerly 850 mb winds persist within the deeper theta-e plume, though likely not severe. ...Eastern WY, CO, and northeast NM... Beneath weak westerlies aloft, low-level moisture will gradually spread westward across the High Plains as surface winds veer to east/southeast during the afternoon. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool, resulting in steep lapse rates overall. Models indicate rather significant overall storm coverage from afternoon through evening, developing over the high terrain and spreading into the Plains. Given MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, strong gusts will be possible, in addition to marginal hail. ..Jewell.. 07/22/2025 Read more