Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 24 19:13:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Isolated severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern and central Plains. ...Northeast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across Quebec and parts of New England through the day, while a related belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow overspreads the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a cold front will move southward across the region through the afternoon. As widely scattered thunderstorms along the front intercept a moist/destabilizing pre-convective air mass (upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), around 30 kt of effective shear will promote organized clusters, small line segments, and possibly some supercell structures. The enhanced low/midlevel flow, steepening boundary-layer lapse rates, and expected clustering will support scattered wind damage across the region. A Slight risk was added where confidence is highest in the overlap of scattered organized storms, highest buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer flow/shear. ...Northern Plains... Within a belt of enhanced midlevel westerly flow, guidance indicates a subtle/embedded midlevel perturbation moving into the northern Plains during the afternoon. This should aid in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorm development over the northern High Plains, before spreading eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass. An elongated hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate buoyancy will support a couple organized storms initially capable or producing large hail and locally severe gusts. As storms track eastward, upscale growth into an organized cluster is possible -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet. A separate area of thunderstorm development is possible farther east, where warm advection and an enlarged/curved hodograph will support damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado risk. ...Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a convectively augmented compact wave moving east-northeastward across the central Plains. Pockets of diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture and a clockwise-curved hodograph will support a couple organized storms including supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that can evolve. ..Weinman.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible from parts of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Ahead of an MCV, a well-organized cluster of storms will pose at a short-term severe risk across far northern Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although there is some potential for additional development southwestward along the front this afternoon. ...Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity to south-central Plains... Aside from an MCV nearing northern Lake Michigan, at least one additional eastward-moving MCV exists across eastern Iowa, nearing the southwest Wisconsin/northwest Illinois border vicinity as of midday. Some multi-layer cloud debris still persists, and a pre-frontal veering of winds (westerly component) has occurred in some areas. However, heating of a very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) will lead to strong destabilization (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and relatively weak boundary-layer inhibition this afternoon near/ahead of the front. Most 12z global guidance/HREF members are more aggressive in the coverage/intensity of convection than morning HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs, particularly for northern portions of Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. Where deep convection does develop/sustain this afternoon, MCV-aided enhancement of low/mid-tropospheric flow will support some well-organized bands/clusters of storms with wind damage as the most common severe risk across northern Missouri, northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, into Lower Michigan. A more localized/pulse-type severe risk is anticipated farther southwest into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. ...High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across parts of the northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will tend to be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so, convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens. Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still be possible. ..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/24/2025 Read more