Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is anticipated between these two troughs. This entire trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon as they move generally southeastward. ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon... Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some isolated development does appear probable, particularly where persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, any convection that is maintained and matures should become supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging downdrafts. ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning... Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within any more established storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is anticipated between these two troughs. This entire trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon as they move generally southeastward. ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon... Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some isolated development does appear probable, particularly where persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, any convection that is maintained and matures should become supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging downdrafts. ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning... Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within any more established storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Northeast through the period, while an upper ridge encompasses much of the West. On the backside of the midlevel trough, a post-frontal air mass will infiltrate the northern and central Plains, where breezy/gusty northerly surface winds are expected. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions -- given receptive fuels across the area. However, these conditions appear too brief and marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. Farther west, dry/breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest during the afternoon. However, fuels are generally not supportive of large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Northeast through the period, while an upper ridge encompasses much of the West. On the backside of the midlevel trough, a post-frontal air mass will infiltrate the northern and central Plains, where breezy/gusty northerly surface winds are expected. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions -- given receptive fuels across the area. However, these conditions appear too brief and marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. Farther west, dry/breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest during the afternoon. However, fuels are generally not supportive of large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Northeast through the period, while an upper ridge encompasses much of the West. On the backside of the midlevel trough, a post-frontal air mass will infiltrate the northern and central Plains, where breezy/gusty northerly surface winds are expected. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions -- given receptive fuels across the area. However, these conditions appear too brief and marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. Farther west, dry/breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest during the afternoon. However, fuels are generally not supportive of large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Northeast through the period, while an upper ridge encompasses much of the West. On the backside of the midlevel trough, a post-frontal air mass will infiltrate the northern and central Plains, where breezy/gusty northerly surface winds are expected. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions -- given receptive fuels across the area. However, these conditions appear too brief and marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. Farther west, dry/breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest during the afternoon. However, fuels are generally not supportive of large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Northeast through the period, while an upper ridge encompasses much of the West. On the backside of the midlevel trough, a post-frontal air mass will infiltrate the northern and central Plains, where breezy/gusty northerly surface winds are expected. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions -- given receptive fuels across the area. However, these conditions appear too brief and marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. Farther west, dry/breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest during the afternoon. However, fuels are generally not supportive of large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Northeast through the period, while an upper ridge encompasses much of the West. On the backside of the midlevel trough, a post-frontal air mass will infiltrate the northern and central Plains, where breezy/gusty northerly surface winds are expected. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions -- given receptive fuels across the area. However, these conditions appear too brief and marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. Farther west, dry/breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest during the afternoon. However, fuels are generally not supportive of large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Northeast through the period, while an upper ridge encompasses much of the West. On the backside of the midlevel trough, a post-frontal air mass will infiltrate the northern and central Plains, where breezy/gusty northerly surface winds are expected. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions -- given receptive fuels across the area. However, these conditions appear too brief and marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. Farther west, dry/breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest during the afternoon. However, fuels are generally not supportive of large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Northeast through the period, while an upper ridge encompasses much of the West. On the backside of the midlevel trough, a post-frontal air mass will infiltrate the northern and central Plains, where breezy/gusty northerly surface winds are expected. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions -- given receptive fuels across the area. However, these conditions appear too brief and marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. Farther west, dry/breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest during the afternoon. However, fuels are generally not supportive of large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more