Severe Storms

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE LBB TO 40 N MWL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509 ..WEINMAN..04/23/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC059-151-169-207-253-263-353-417-429-433-441-447-503-240040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAHAN FISHER GARZA HASKELL JONES KENT NOLAN SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0509 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0509 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132... Valid 232249Z - 240045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132 continues. SUMMARY...The severe storm risk should increase across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132 during the next few hours. Isolated large hail (some possibly up to 2.5 inches) and severe gusts to 70 mph are the main concerns. DISCUSSION...A couple of semi-discrete thunderstorms have developed along a cold front draped across The Rolling Plains this afternoon, where surface convergence is maximized. So far, these storms have struggled to maintain organization and intensity as they attempt to get off the boundary. As of 2240Z, these storms are now tracking east-southeastward off the boundary, into an environment with richer boundary-layer moisture (upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Here, a long/mostly straight hodograph (characterized by 30-40 kt of effective shear) should support supercells (with a tendency for splitting). Weak large-scale ascent and warm/dry air at the base of the EML have limited storm intensity/sustenance so far. However, continued storm splits and related merging may allow for a larger storm structure or two to evolve with time. If this convective evolution can occur, isolated large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) and severe gusts up to 70 mph will be an increasing concern during the next few hours. ..Weinman.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32910124 33020136 33230134 33370114 33480090 33550058 33539989 33409949 33159920 32729914 32369937 32179992 32210038 32300061 32710100 32910124 Read more

WW 132 SEVERE TSTM TX 232045Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 132 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the evening. A few of the stronger storms will probably evolve into supercells and pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles west northwest of Abilene TX to 75 miles east northeast of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Smith Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 23 22:30:04 UTC 2024.

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/23/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC023-059-125-151-169-207-253-263-269-275-353-417-429-433-441- 447-503-232240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAYLOR CALLAHAN DICKENS FISHER GARZA HASKELL JONES KENT KING KNOX NOLAN SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/23/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC023-059-125-151-169-207-253-263-269-275-353-417-429-433-441- 447-503-232240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAYLOR CALLAHAN DICKENS FISHER GARZA HASKELL JONES KENT KING KNOX NOLAN SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0507 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Illinois and southeast Wisconsin into central Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231952Z - 232145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across the Great Lakes region. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. Coverage of severe storms should remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have been ongoing over eastern WI, the Upper Peninsula of MI, and northern WI over the past several hours with multiple reports of 0.5 to 0.75 inch hail and 35-45 knot gusts noted. This convection has largely been driven by ascent along and ahead of a secondary cold frontal surge where a combination of modest diurnal warming and cold temperatures aloft is supporting MUCAPE between 250-500 J/kg. This trend is expected to continue downstream into IL/MI as the cold temperatures aloft overspread the region and mid/upper-level cloud cover slowly shifts southeast. Based on recent observations and RAP forecast soundings, around 500 J/kg MUCAPE should be feasible as surface temperatures warm into the upper 60s. Weak mid-level winds to the north of a jet streak over IL/IN/OH have limited storm longevity/organization thus far, but destabilization closer to the stronger mid-level flow may promote higher, though still somewhat meager, effective bulk shear values between 20-25 knots. This should support better storm organization with a higher potential for marginally severe hail (0.5 to 1.0 inch) and localized damaging wind gusts (most likely between 40-50 knots). Latest mesoanalysis suggests a higher buoyancy axis exists from southeast WI into west-central/northern Lower MI, so the severe threat may be maximized across this corridor in the coming hours. However, severe thunderstorm coverage should remain limited given the overall marginal kinematic environment. ..Moore/Smith.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 42488950 43578801 44268639 44628527 44778397 44328368 43908355 43568358 43318386 42828463 42128642 41808735 41608809 41558865 41568906 41568926 41978954 42178960 42488950 Read more

MD 0508 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TRANS-PECOS/LOWER PECOS VALLEY OF TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Areas affected...Trans-Pecos/Lower Pecos Valley of TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231956Z - 232130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Localized strong to severe gusts of 50-65 mph and small to marginally severe hail to around 1 inch in diameter will be possible with a couple storms in far west Texas. DISCUSSION...High-based, lower-topped thunderstorms are expected to persist for a few more hours off the higher terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos and spread east towards the Lower Pecos Valley before weakening. Steep lower-level lapse rates will be conductive to microbursts beneath generally small hail cores aloft. The overall environmental setup coupled with the lack of stronger large-scale ascent suggest that any severe threat should remain relatively localized in space/short in time, and marginal in intensity. ..Grams/Smith.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30800352 31180233 31110184 30840152 30280160 30140176 30020246 30060315 30350368 30640376 30800352 Read more

MD 0506 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN NORTH TO BIG COUNTRY OF TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Areas affected...western North to Big Country of TX Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 231939Z - 232115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas and the Big Country during the late afternoon. Large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible. DISCUSSION...A high-based CU and small CB field is increasing in the well-mixed post-dryline air across the TX South Plains. This activity will likely further deepen as it spreads east and impinges on the upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points prevalent across parts of the Big Country and Low Rolling Plains of western North TX. Initially weak low-level flow beneath moderate mid to upper-level west-northwesterlies will favor some elongation and nearly straight hodographs. This should support potential for splitting supercell structures. Midday model guidance is consistent with earlier 12Z runs in simulating a sustained supercell or two into early evening. This will probably remain anchored near the southward-sagging surface front prior to it stalling later this evening. Large hail should be the primary hazard, but locally strong to severe gusts will be possible as well. ..Grams/Smith.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 33600065 33800016 33859974 33719911 33189886 32539905 32370019 32410107 32570153 32890164 33450085 33600065 Read more

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0132 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more