Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains. The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region through the day. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK. While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete or embedded supercells can be maintained. ...NE/WY border region into northeast CO... Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains. The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region through the day. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK. While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete or embedded supercells can be maintained. ...NE/WY border region into northeast CO... Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains. The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region through the day. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK. While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete or embedded supercells can be maintained. ...NE/WY border region into northeast CO... Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains. The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region through the day. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK. While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete or embedded supercells can be maintained. ...NE/WY border region into northeast CO... Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains. The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region through the day. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK. While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete or embedded supercells can be maintained. ...NE/WY border region into northeast CO... Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains. The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region through the day. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK. While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete or embedded supercells can be maintained. ...NE/WY border region into northeast CO... Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains. The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region through the day. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK. While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete or embedded supercells can be maintained. ...NE/WY border region into northeast CO... Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains. The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region through the day. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK. While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete or embedded supercells can be maintained. ...NE/WY border region into northeast CO... Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains. The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region through the day. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK. While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete or embedded supercells can be maintained. ...NE/WY border region into northeast CO... Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains. The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region through the day. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK. While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete or embedded supercells can be maintained. ...NE/WY border region into northeast CO... Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained. --- Previous Discussion issued at 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 --- ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a surface low will consolidate and deepen across the central High Plains through the day, before moving northeastward toward northwest KS/southwest NE by Friday morning. An initially stationary surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Coverage of the severe-thunderstorm threat remains somewhat uncertain, but a couple intense supercells are possible by Thursday evening near the dryline from western KS into western OK and the TX/OK Panhandles. Another round of overnight convection will potentially bring the severe threat eastward into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains. The warm sector of the deepening cyclone will likely remain capped for much of the day, though elevated convection may persist from parts of central/eastern KS into eastern OK, to the north of the effective warm front. Increasing moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the dryline, as deep-layer shear strengthens across the region through the day. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will begin to impinge upon the warm sector by late afternoon, with isolated supercell development possible near the surface low across southwest KS and southward down the dryline into the TX Panhandle. Very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary initial hazard. A notable increase in low-level flow/shear near and after 00Z will also support a tornado threat with any supercells that can persist into the evening across parts of western KS/OK. While any initial dryline storms may weaken by mid/late evening due to increasing MLCINH with eastward extent, renewed storm development is possible overnight along the Pacific cold front from southwest TX into western/central KS/OK as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and strong low-level and deep-layer shear will conditionally support a severe threat with overnight convection across the warm sector, though storm mode may become complex and tend toward a linear evolution with time. Severe wind gusts may become an increasing threat with the nocturnal convection, though hail and a couple tornadoes will also be possible if semi-discrete or embedded supercells can be maintained. ...NE/WY border region into northeast CO... Low-level southeasterly flow will support modest moisture return into parts of northeast CO, southeast WY, and western NE, to the north of the deepening cyclone. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the cool side of the effective warm front during the afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther southeast, steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if surface-based storms can be maintained within this regime. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is anticipated between these two troughs. This entire trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon as they move generally southeastward. ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon... Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some isolated development does appear probable, particularly where persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, any convection that is maintained and matures should become supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging downdrafts. ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning... Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within any more established storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is anticipated between these two troughs. This entire trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon as they move generally southeastward. ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon... Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some isolated development does appear probable, particularly where persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, any convection that is maintained and matures should become supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging downdrafts. ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning... Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within any more established storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is anticipated between these two troughs. This entire trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon as they move generally southeastward. ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon... Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some isolated development does appear probable, particularly where persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, any convection that is maintained and matures should become supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging downdrafts. ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning... Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within any more established storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is anticipated between these two troughs. This entire trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon as they move generally southeastward. ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon... Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some isolated development does appear probable, particularly where persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, any convection that is maintained and matures should become supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging downdrafts. ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning... Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within any more established storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is anticipated between these two troughs. This entire trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon as they move generally southeastward. ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon... Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some isolated development does appear probable, particularly where persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, any convection that is maintained and matures should become supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging downdrafts. ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning... Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within any more established storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is anticipated between these two troughs. This entire trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon as they move generally southeastward. ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon... Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some isolated development does appear probable, particularly where persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, any convection that is maintained and matures should become supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging downdrafts. ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning... Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within any more established storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is anticipated between these two troughs. This entire trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon as they move generally southeastward. ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon... Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some isolated development does appear probable, particularly where persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, any convection that is maintained and matures should become supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging downdrafts. ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning... Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within any more established storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is anticipated between these two troughs. This entire trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon as they move generally southeastward. ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon... Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some isolated development does appear probable, particularly where persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, any convection that is maintained and matures should become supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging downdrafts. ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning... Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within any more established storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is anticipated between these two troughs. This entire trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon as they move generally southeastward. ...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon... Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some isolated development does appear probable, particularly where persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, any convection that is maintained and matures should become supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail and strong, damaging downdrafts. ...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning... Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within any more established storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England... Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 Read more