Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical thresholds. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical thresholds. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical thresholds. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical thresholds. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical thresholds. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, remain possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook. A low threat of severe storms remains this afternoon for the coastal counties of far southeastern FL. Storms are ongoing near a weak boundary, with 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE present. Locally strong gusts or brief/marginal hail may occur over the next few hours, prior to storms moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, remain possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook. A low threat of severe storms remains this afternoon for the coastal counties of far southeastern FL. Storms are ongoing near a weak boundary, with 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE present. Locally strong gusts or brief/marginal hail may occur over the next few hours, prior to storms moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, remain possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook. A low threat of severe storms remains this afternoon for the coastal counties of far southeastern FL. Storms are ongoing near a weak boundary, with 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE present. Locally strong gusts or brief/marginal hail may occur over the next few hours, prior to storms moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, remain possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook. A low threat of severe storms remains this afternoon for the coastal counties of far southeastern FL. Storms are ongoing near a weak boundary, with 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE present. Locally strong gusts or brief/marginal hail may occur over the next few hours, prior to storms moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, remain possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook. A low threat of severe storms remains this afternoon for the coastal counties of far southeastern FL. Storms are ongoing near a weak boundary, with 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE present. Locally strong gusts or brief/marginal hail may occur over the next few hours, prior to storms moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Breezy/gusty post-frontal winds are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH during the afternoon, given ample boundary-layer heating/drying. As a result, locally/briefly elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther west, midlevel southwesterly flow will develop across the Southwest -- ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. While this will likely support an overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, fuels are generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Breezy/gusty post-frontal winds are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH during the afternoon, given ample boundary-layer heating/drying. As a result, locally/briefly elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther west, midlevel southwesterly flow will develop across the Southwest -- ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. While this will likely support an overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, fuels are generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Breezy/gusty post-frontal winds are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH during the afternoon, given ample boundary-layer heating/drying. As a result, locally/briefly elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther west, midlevel southwesterly flow will develop across the Southwest -- ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. While this will likely support an overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, fuels are generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Breezy/gusty post-frontal winds are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH during the afternoon, given ample boundary-layer heating/drying. As a result, locally/briefly elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther west, midlevel southwesterly flow will develop across the Southwest -- ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. While this will likely support an overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, fuels are generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Breezy/gusty post-frontal winds are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH during the afternoon, given ample boundary-layer heating/drying. As a result, locally/briefly elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther west, midlevel southwesterly flow will develop across the Southwest -- ahead of an approaching large-scale trough. While this will likely support an overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, fuels are generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0505 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Areas affected...Far southeast FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221623Z - 221800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A marginally severe storm with hail up to around 1.25 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible over the greater Miami metro area during the next 2-3 hours. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A southward-sagging cold front extends from Palm Beach to mainland Monroe counties as of 16Z. Surface temperatures ahead of it across the remaining portion of the peninsula have warmed into the mid 80s F while dew points have mixed into the upper 60s. This is supporting moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg. A recent increase in agitated CU and small CBs along it suggest that a storm or two may develop despite the prevailing westerly low-level wind profile. 25-30 kt effective bulk shear, primarily driven by an increase in speed with height, should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. With 500-mb temperatures near -11 C, hail magnitudes from 0.75-1.25 inches, along with locally strong wind gusts of 45-60 mph should be the expected hazards. ..Grams/Smith.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL... LAT...LON 26028042 26258018 26217997 25608005 25428019 25448042 25758049 26028042 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma, and over parts of Lower Michigan. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a northwest flow regime will exist from the Rockies to the East Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley, Great Lakes and OH Valley. Temporary ridging will occur over the Great Basin before a deep upper trough provides height falls into CA late. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over GA and SC, which will produce dry and stable conditions for much of the region. South of the high, low-level moisture trajectories will extend from the Bahamas across the southern Gulf of Mexico, with 50s dewpoints spreading north into central TX and OK. Another area of high pressure will exist over the northern High Plains, with a surface trough generally from Lake Huron to northwest TX during the afternoon. Low pressure will exist ahead of the northern trough near Lake Huron, with another developing low over the TX Panhandle/South Plains area, just south of a front. This front will extend northeastward from the low across OK, southern MO, and to the OH Valley, with instability focused over northwest TX. Minimal instability may also develop over Lower MI. ...Northwest TX and Vicinity... Strong heating will occur near the developing low and south of the southwest-northeast oriented front. Weak northwest flow aloft will couple with veering low-level winds to favor a few severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts near peak heating. Forecast soundings reveal straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Steep lapse rates will favor hail while the deeply mixed boundary layer supports strong outflow as well. ...Lower Michigan... Strong midlevel cooling will occur across the upper Great Lakes region as the upper trough pushes southeast. Combined with daytime heating, this will yield very steep lapse rates which will favor strong storms despite only 40s F dewpoints. Convergence along the front looks to be favorably timed with peak heating, with scattered low-topped storms expected. Given very cold 500 mb temperatures to -25 C, hail will be likely, with a few storms perhaps capable of hail to severe levels. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma, and over parts of Lower Michigan. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a northwest flow regime will exist from the Rockies to the East Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley, Great Lakes and OH Valley. Temporary ridging will occur over the Great Basin before a deep upper trough provides height falls into CA late. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over GA and SC, which will produce dry and stable conditions for much of the region. South of the high, low-level moisture trajectories will extend from the Bahamas across the southern Gulf of Mexico, with 50s dewpoints spreading north into central TX and OK. Another area of high pressure will exist over the northern High Plains, with a surface trough generally from Lake Huron to northwest TX during the afternoon. Low pressure will exist ahead of the northern trough near Lake Huron, with another developing low over the TX Panhandle/South Plains area, just south of a front. This front will extend northeastward from the low across OK, southern MO, and to the OH Valley, with instability focused over northwest TX. Minimal instability may also develop over Lower MI. ...Northwest TX and Vicinity... Strong heating will occur near the developing low and south of the southwest-northeast oriented front. Weak northwest flow aloft will couple with veering low-level winds to favor a few severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts near peak heating. Forecast soundings reveal straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Steep lapse rates will favor hail while the deeply mixed boundary layer supports strong outflow as well. ...Lower Michigan... Strong midlevel cooling will occur across the upper Great Lakes region as the upper trough pushes southeast. Combined with daytime heating, this will yield very steep lapse rates which will favor strong storms despite only 40s F dewpoints. Convergence along the front looks to be favorably timed with peak heating, with scattered low-topped storms expected. Given very cold 500 mb temperatures to -25 C, hail will be likely, with a few storms perhaps capable of hail to severe levels. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma, and over parts of Lower Michigan. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a northwest flow regime will exist from the Rockies to the East Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley, Great Lakes and OH Valley. Temporary ridging will occur over the Great Basin before a deep upper trough provides height falls into CA late. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over GA and SC, which will produce dry and stable conditions for much of the region. South of the high, low-level moisture trajectories will extend from the Bahamas across the southern Gulf of Mexico, with 50s dewpoints spreading north into central TX and OK. Another area of high pressure will exist over the northern High Plains, with a surface trough generally from Lake Huron to northwest TX during the afternoon. Low pressure will exist ahead of the northern trough near Lake Huron, with another developing low over the TX Panhandle/South Plains area, just south of a front. This front will extend northeastward from the low across OK, southern MO, and to the OH Valley, with instability focused over northwest TX. Minimal instability may also develop over Lower MI. ...Northwest TX and Vicinity... Strong heating will occur near the developing low and south of the southwest-northeast oriented front. Weak northwest flow aloft will couple with veering low-level winds to favor a few severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts near peak heating. Forecast soundings reveal straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Steep lapse rates will favor hail while the deeply mixed boundary layer supports strong outflow as well. ...Lower Michigan... Strong midlevel cooling will occur across the upper Great Lakes region as the upper trough pushes southeast. Combined with daytime heating, this will yield very steep lapse rates which will favor strong storms despite only 40s F dewpoints. Convergence along the front looks to be favorably timed with peak heating, with scattered low-topped storms expected. Given very cold 500 mb temperatures to -25 C, hail will be likely, with a few storms perhaps capable of hail to severe levels. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma, and over parts of Lower Michigan. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a northwest flow regime will exist from the Rockies to the East Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley, Great Lakes and OH Valley. Temporary ridging will occur over the Great Basin before a deep upper trough provides height falls into CA late. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over GA and SC, which will produce dry and stable conditions for much of the region. South of the high, low-level moisture trajectories will extend from the Bahamas across the southern Gulf of Mexico, with 50s dewpoints spreading north into central TX and OK. Another area of high pressure will exist over the northern High Plains, with a surface trough generally from Lake Huron to northwest TX during the afternoon. Low pressure will exist ahead of the northern trough near Lake Huron, with another developing low over the TX Panhandle/South Plains area, just south of a front. This front will extend northeastward from the low across OK, southern MO, and to the OH Valley, with instability focused over northwest TX. Minimal instability may also develop over Lower MI. ...Northwest TX and Vicinity... Strong heating will occur near the developing low and south of the southwest-northeast oriented front. Weak northwest flow aloft will couple with veering low-level winds to favor a few severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts near peak heating. Forecast soundings reveal straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Steep lapse rates will favor hail while the deeply mixed boundary layer supports strong outflow as well. ...Lower Michigan... Strong midlevel cooling will occur across the upper Great Lakes region as the upper trough pushes southeast. Combined with daytime heating, this will yield very steep lapse rates which will favor strong storms despite only 40s F dewpoints. Convergence along the front looks to be favorably timed with peak heating, with scattered low-topped storms expected. Given very cold 500 mb temperatures to -25 C, hail will be likely, with a few storms perhaps capable of hail to severe levels. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 Read more