Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma, and over parts of Lower Michigan. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a northwest flow regime will exist from the Rockies to the East Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley, Great Lakes and OH Valley. Temporary ridging will occur over the Great Basin before a deep upper trough provides height falls into CA late. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over GA and SC, which will produce dry and stable conditions for much of the region. South of the high, low-level moisture trajectories will extend from the Bahamas across the southern Gulf of Mexico, with 50s dewpoints spreading north into central TX and OK. Another area of high pressure will exist over the northern High Plains, with a surface trough generally from Lake Huron to northwest TX during the afternoon. Low pressure will exist ahead of the northern trough near Lake Huron, with another developing low over the TX Panhandle/South Plains area, just south of a front. This front will extend northeastward from the low across OK, southern MO, and to the OH Valley, with instability focused over northwest TX. Minimal instability may also develop over Lower MI. ...Northwest TX and Vicinity... Strong heating will occur near the developing low and south of the southwest-northeast oriented front. Weak northwest flow aloft will couple with veering low-level winds to favor a few severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts near peak heating. Forecast soundings reveal straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Steep lapse rates will favor hail while the deeply mixed boundary layer supports strong outflow as well. ...Lower Michigan... Strong midlevel cooling will occur across the upper Great Lakes region as the upper trough pushes southeast. Combined with daytime heating, this will yield very steep lapse rates which will favor strong storms despite only 40s F dewpoints. Convergence along the front looks to be favorably timed with peak heating, with scattered low-topped storms expected. Given very cold 500 mb temperatures to -25 C, hail will be likely, with a few storms perhaps capable of hail to severe levels. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma, and over parts of Lower Michigan. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a northwest flow regime will exist from the Rockies to the East Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley, Great Lakes and OH Valley. Temporary ridging will occur over the Great Basin before a deep upper trough provides height falls into CA late. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over GA and SC, which will produce dry and stable conditions for much of the region. South of the high, low-level moisture trajectories will extend from the Bahamas across the southern Gulf of Mexico, with 50s dewpoints spreading north into central TX and OK. Another area of high pressure will exist over the northern High Plains, with a surface trough generally from Lake Huron to northwest TX during the afternoon. Low pressure will exist ahead of the northern trough near Lake Huron, with another developing low over the TX Panhandle/South Plains area, just south of a front. This front will extend northeastward from the low across OK, southern MO, and to the OH Valley, with instability focused over northwest TX. Minimal instability may also develop over Lower MI. ...Northwest TX and Vicinity... Strong heating will occur near the developing low and south of the southwest-northeast oriented front. Weak northwest flow aloft will couple with veering low-level winds to favor a few severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts near peak heating. Forecast soundings reveal straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Steep lapse rates will favor hail while the deeply mixed boundary layer supports strong outflow as well. ...Lower Michigan... Strong midlevel cooling will occur across the upper Great Lakes region as the upper trough pushes southeast. Combined with daytime heating, this will yield very steep lapse rates which will favor strong storms despite only 40s F dewpoints. Convergence along the front looks to be favorably timed with peak heating, with scattered low-topped storms expected. Given very cold 500 mb temperatures to -25 C, hail will be likely, with a few storms perhaps capable of hail to severe levels. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma, and over parts of Lower Michigan. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a northwest flow regime will exist from the Rockies to the East Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley, Great Lakes and OH Valley. Temporary ridging will occur over the Great Basin before a deep upper trough provides height falls into CA late. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over GA and SC, which will produce dry and stable conditions for much of the region. South of the high, low-level moisture trajectories will extend from the Bahamas across the southern Gulf of Mexico, with 50s dewpoints spreading north into central TX and OK. Another area of high pressure will exist over the northern High Plains, with a surface trough generally from Lake Huron to northwest TX during the afternoon. Low pressure will exist ahead of the northern trough near Lake Huron, with another developing low over the TX Panhandle/South Plains area, just south of a front. This front will extend northeastward from the low across OK, southern MO, and to the OH Valley, with instability focused over northwest TX. Minimal instability may also develop over Lower MI. ...Northwest TX and Vicinity... Strong heating will occur near the developing low and south of the southwest-northeast oriented front. Weak northwest flow aloft will couple with veering low-level winds to favor a few severe storms capable of hail and strong gusts near peak heating. Forecast soundings reveal straight hodographs, which will favor cellular storm mode. Steep lapse rates will favor hail while the deeply mixed boundary layer supports strong outflow as well. ...Lower Michigan... Strong midlevel cooling will occur across the upper Great Lakes region as the upper trough pushes southeast. Combined with daytime heating, this will yield very steep lapse rates which will favor strong storms despite only 40s F dewpoints. Convergence along the front looks to be favorably timed with peak heating, with scattered low-topped storms expected. Given very cold 500 mb temperatures to -25 C, hail will be likely, with a few storms perhaps capable of hail to severe levels. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible over parts of the northern High Plains. Locally elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the central Plains and upper Midwest. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible over parts of the northern High Plains. Locally elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the central Plains and upper Midwest. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible over parts of the northern High Plains. Locally elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the central Plains and upper Midwest. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible over parts of the northern High Plains. Locally elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the central Plains and upper Midwest. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible over parts of the northern High Plains. Locally elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the central Plains and upper Midwest. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible over parts of the northern High Plains. Locally elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the central Plains and upper Midwest. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. ...Southeast FL coast this afternoon... In conjunction with a midlevel shortwave trough moving over the Southeast, a surface cold front will progress southward from central to south FL through the day. Surface dewpoints near 70 F this morning will likely decrease with surface heating/mixing, though there is some uncertainty regarding the influence of morning clouds/convection. Assuming a few cloud breaks by midday/early afternoon, the more probable area for thunderstorm development this afternoon will be near the southeast FL coast. This area will be along the southern fringe of the stronger mid-upper westerlies, where deep-layer shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for semi-organized storms with a low-end wind/hail threat for a few hours this afternoon. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel trough will dig southeastward over the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward into the upper MS Valley and central Plains. Isolated high-based thunderstorms may form late this afternoon in the zone of deepest mixing along the front from northeast CO into northwest KS, where gusty winds will be possible. Elevated convection rooted near 700 mb is the more probable scenario tonight atop the frontal surface from southern NE/northern KS into southern IA/northern MO. Otherwise, weak/low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will also be possible this afternoon/evening within the midlevel cold pool over northern ND/MN. Strong wind gusts will be possible given deep mixing and strong synoptic flow over ND, but severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. ...Southeast FL coast this afternoon... In conjunction with a midlevel shortwave trough moving over the Southeast, a surface cold front will progress southward from central to south FL through the day. Surface dewpoints near 70 F this morning will likely decrease with surface heating/mixing, though there is some uncertainty regarding the influence of morning clouds/convection. Assuming a few cloud breaks by midday/early afternoon, the more probable area for thunderstorm development this afternoon will be near the southeast FL coast. This area will be along the southern fringe of the stronger mid-upper westerlies, where deep-layer shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for semi-organized storms with a low-end wind/hail threat for a few hours this afternoon. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel trough will dig southeastward over the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward into the upper MS Valley and central Plains. Isolated high-based thunderstorms may form late this afternoon in the zone of deepest mixing along the front from northeast CO into northwest KS, where gusty winds will be possible. Elevated convection rooted near 700 mb is the more probable scenario tonight atop the frontal surface from southern NE/northern KS into southern IA/northern MO. Otherwise, weak/low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will also be possible this afternoon/evening within the midlevel cold pool over northern ND/MN. Strong wind gusts will be possible given deep mixing and strong synoptic flow over ND, but severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. ...Southeast FL coast this afternoon... In conjunction with a midlevel shortwave trough moving over the Southeast, a surface cold front will progress southward from central to south FL through the day. Surface dewpoints near 70 F this morning will likely decrease with surface heating/mixing, though there is some uncertainty regarding the influence of morning clouds/convection. Assuming a few cloud breaks by midday/early afternoon, the more probable area for thunderstorm development this afternoon will be near the southeast FL coast. This area will be along the southern fringe of the stronger mid-upper westerlies, where deep-layer shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for semi-organized storms with a low-end wind/hail threat for a few hours this afternoon. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel trough will dig southeastward over the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward into the upper MS Valley and central Plains. Isolated high-based thunderstorms may form late this afternoon in the zone of deepest mixing along the front from northeast CO into northwest KS, where gusty winds will be possible. Elevated convection rooted near 700 mb is the more probable scenario tonight atop the frontal surface from southern NE/northern KS into southern IA/northern MO. Otherwise, weak/low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will also be possible this afternoon/evening within the midlevel cold pool over northern ND/MN. Strong wind gusts will be possible given deep mixing and strong synoptic flow over ND, but severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/22/2024 Read more