Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will track east-southeastward from SK toward the Upper Great Lakes through the period, while a related belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow overspreads a post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Here, a tight pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, will favor a WNW/ESE-oriented corridor of 25-35 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 20-30 percent RH (locally lower). Elevated highlights have been added for this corridor, with the southern edge bounded by overnight/early-morning precipitation, and northern edge where higher RH is expected. While fuels are somewhat marginal across the region (ERCs generally in the 60th-80th percentile), the strong/gusty winds and modest RH reductions warrant these highlights. Ahead of the primary cold front, a swath of strong south-southwesterly surface winds will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest. While higher boundary-layer moisture (and related RH) is expected across this corridor, locally elevated conditions are still possible where fine fuels are receptive to fire-spread (e.g., parts of western KS). ..Weinman.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge will build into the Rockies on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains from the west-northwest across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. South of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F across northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop, with MLCAPE expected to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings on Tuesday in the afternoon have a capping inversion in place. However, increasing low-level convergence along the front may be enough for isolated convective initiation. Any storms that form would be high-based, and in an environment with moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates. This could support a potential for isolated supercells with large hail. A strong wind gust or two would also be possible. The capping inversion should keep any severe threat in a relatively narrow window, from late afternoon into the early evening. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge will build into the Rockies on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains from the west-northwest across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. South of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F across northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop, with MLCAPE expected to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings on Tuesday in the afternoon have a capping inversion in place. However, increasing low-level convergence along the front may be enough for isolated convective initiation. Any storms that form would be high-based, and in an environment with moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates. This could support a potential for isolated supercells with large hail. A strong wind gust or two would also be possible. The capping inversion should keep any severe threat in a relatively narrow window, from late afternoon into the early evening. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge will build into the Rockies on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains from the west-northwest across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. South of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F across northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop, with MLCAPE expected to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings on Tuesday in the afternoon have a capping inversion in place. However, increasing low-level convergence along the front may be enough for isolated convective initiation. Any storms that form would be high-based, and in an environment with moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates. This could support a potential for isolated supercells with large hail. A strong wind gust or two would also be possible. The capping inversion should keep any severe threat in a relatively narrow window, from late afternoon into the early evening. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge will build into the Rockies on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains from the west-northwest across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. South of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F across northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop, with MLCAPE expected to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings on Tuesday in the afternoon have a capping inversion in place. However, increasing low-level convergence along the front may be enough for isolated convective initiation. Any storms that form would be high-based, and in an environment with moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates. This could support a potential for isolated supercells with large hail. A strong wind gust or two would also be possible. The capping inversion should keep any severe threat in a relatively narrow window, from late afternoon into the early evening. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far southwest Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains... An upper-level ridge will build into the Rockies on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains from the west-northwest across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. South of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F across northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop, with MLCAPE expected to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings on Tuesday in the afternoon have a capping inversion in place. However, increasing low-level convergence along the front may be enough for isolated convective initiation. Any storms that form would be high-based, and in an environment with moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates. This could support a potential for isolated supercells with large hail. A strong wind gust or two would also be possible. The capping inversion should keep any severe threat in a relatively narrow window, from late afternoon into the early evening. ..Broyles.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the southeast Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...South Florida... An upper trough oriented from the Carolinas to the Southeast will shift east over the Atlantic waters by 00z. A belt of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the trough will overspread much of FL. At the surface, a cold front located over central FL will shift south through late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is already in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer, coupled with daytime heating, will foster MLCAPE values to around 1000-1500 J/kg. The greatest instability will be focused near the southeast FL coast. Low-level flow will remain light and mainly parallel to the surface front, limiting convergence. Still, inhibition is forecast to be weak and thunderstorms are expected by afternoon near the surface front. Elongated hodographs, and around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes suggest supercells are possible. However, given weak forcing and possible strong outflows given steep low-level lapse rates beneath 850 mb, clustering may also be possible. Strongest convection will likely be confined to near the southeast FL coast. Locally strong/damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail possible through late afternoon. ...Central Plains... An upper shortwave trough will migrate across the northern Plains, with height falls extending into the central Plains this afternoon/evening. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico and a large area of surface high pressure extending from the southern Plains to the Mid-South/TN Valley. Nevertheless, modest midlevel moisture is forecast over the region amid a plume of steep mid and low-level lapse rates. Minor elevated instability (generally 750 J/kg MUCAPE or less) is evident in forecast soundings above a warm layer around 700 mb. Some weak convection is expected and a few strong gusts or small hail is possible across southern NE into northern KS. However, longevity of stronger updrafts appears limited and coverage of convection is expected to be low, precluding marginal severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the southeast Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...South Florida... An upper trough oriented from the Carolinas to the Southeast will shift east over the Atlantic waters by 00z. A belt of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the trough will overspread much of FL. At the surface, a cold front located over central FL will shift south through late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is already in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer, coupled with daytime heating, will foster MLCAPE values to around 1000-1500 J/kg. The greatest instability will be focused near the southeast FL coast. Low-level flow will remain light and mainly parallel to the surface front, limiting convergence. Still, inhibition is forecast to be weak and thunderstorms are expected by afternoon near the surface front. Elongated hodographs, and around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes suggest supercells are possible. However, given weak forcing and possible strong outflows given steep low-level lapse rates beneath 850 mb, clustering may also be possible. Strongest convection will likely be confined to near the southeast FL coast. Locally strong/damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail possible through late afternoon. ...Central Plains... An upper shortwave trough will migrate across the northern Plains, with height falls extending into the central Plains this afternoon/evening. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico and a large area of surface high pressure extending from the southern Plains to the Mid-South/TN Valley. Nevertheless, modest midlevel moisture is forecast over the region amid a plume of steep mid and low-level lapse rates. Minor elevated instability (generally 750 J/kg MUCAPE or less) is evident in forecast soundings above a warm layer around 700 mb. Some weak convection is expected and a few strong gusts or small hail is possible across southern NE into northern KS. However, longevity of stronger updrafts appears limited and coverage of convection is expected to be low, precluding marginal severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the southeast Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...South Florida... An upper trough oriented from the Carolinas to the Southeast will shift east over the Atlantic waters by 00z. A belt of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the trough will overspread much of FL. At the surface, a cold front located over central FL will shift south through late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is already in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer, coupled with daytime heating, will foster MLCAPE values to around 1000-1500 J/kg. The greatest instability will be focused near the southeast FL coast. Low-level flow will remain light and mainly parallel to the surface front, limiting convergence. Still, inhibition is forecast to be weak and thunderstorms are expected by afternoon near the surface front. Elongated hodographs, and around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes suggest supercells are possible. However, given weak forcing and possible strong outflows given steep low-level lapse rates beneath 850 mb, clustering may also be possible. Strongest convection will likely be confined to near the southeast FL coast. Locally strong/damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail possible through late afternoon. ...Central Plains... An upper shortwave trough will migrate across the northern Plains, with height falls extending into the central Plains this afternoon/evening. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico and a large area of surface high pressure extending from the southern Plains to the Mid-South/TN Valley. Nevertheless, modest midlevel moisture is forecast over the region amid a plume of steep mid and low-level lapse rates. Minor elevated instability (generally 750 J/kg MUCAPE or less) is evident in forecast soundings above a warm layer around 700 mb. Some weak convection is expected and a few strong gusts or small hail is possible across southern NE into northern KS. However, longevity of stronger updrafts appears limited and coverage of convection is expected to be low, precluding marginal severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the southeast Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...South Florida... An upper trough oriented from the Carolinas to the Southeast will shift east over the Atlantic waters by 00z. A belt of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the trough will overspread much of FL. At the surface, a cold front located over central FL will shift south through late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is already in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer, coupled with daytime heating, will foster MLCAPE values to around 1000-1500 J/kg. The greatest instability will be focused near the southeast FL coast. Low-level flow will remain light and mainly parallel to the surface front, limiting convergence. Still, inhibition is forecast to be weak and thunderstorms are expected by afternoon near the surface front. Elongated hodographs, and around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes suggest supercells are possible. However, given weak forcing and possible strong outflows given steep low-level lapse rates beneath 850 mb, clustering may also be possible. Strongest convection will likely be confined to near the southeast FL coast. Locally strong/damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail possible through late afternoon. ...Central Plains... An upper shortwave trough will migrate across the northern Plains, with height falls extending into the central Plains this afternoon/evening. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico and a large area of surface high pressure extending from the southern Plains to the Mid-South/TN Valley. Nevertheless, modest midlevel moisture is forecast over the region amid a plume of steep mid and low-level lapse rates. Minor elevated instability (generally 750 J/kg MUCAPE or less) is evident in forecast soundings above a warm layer around 700 mb. Some weak convection is expected and a few strong gusts or small hail is possible across southern NE into northern KS. However, longevity of stronger updrafts appears limited and coverage of convection is expected to be low, precluding marginal severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible across the southeast Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...South Florida... An upper trough oriented from the Carolinas to the Southeast will shift east over the Atlantic waters by 00z. A belt of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the trough will overspread much of FL. At the surface, a cold front located over central FL will shift south through late afternoon. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is already in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer, coupled with daytime heating, will foster MLCAPE values to around 1000-1500 J/kg. The greatest instability will be focused near the southeast FL coast. Low-level flow will remain light and mainly parallel to the surface front, limiting convergence. Still, inhibition is forecast to be weak and thunderstorms are expected by afternoon near the surface front. Elongated hodographs, and around 35 kt effective shear magnitudes suggest supercells are possible. However, given weak forcing and possible strong outflows given steep low-level lapse rates beneath 850 mb, clustering may also be possible. Strongest convection will likely be confined to near the southeast FL coast. Locally strong/damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail possible through late afternoon. ...Central Plains... An upper shortwave trough will migrate across the northern Plains, with height falls extending into the central Plains this afternoon/evening. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico and a large area of surface high pressure extending from the southern Plains to the Mid-South/TN Valley. Nevertheless, modest midlevel moisture is forecast over the region amid a plume of steep mid and low-level lapse rates. Minor elevated instability (generally 750 J/kg MUCAPE or less) is evident in forecast soundings above a warm layer around 700 mb. Some weak convection is expected and a few strong gusts or small hail is possible across southern NE into northern KS. However, longevity of stronger updrafts appears limited and coverage of convection is expected to be low, precluding marginal severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low through tonight. ...Southeast GA/North FL... Severe probabilities have been removed from southeast GA/northern FL with the 01z update. Weakening large-scale ascent, poor low-level convergence, and a cooling/stabilizing boundary layer post-sunset will suppress severe thunderstorm potential the remainder of the evening. However, sufficient elevated instability may support isolated non-severe thunderstorm near the southward sagging surface front for a few more hours. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low through tonight. ...Southeast GA/North FL... Severe probabilities have been removed from southeast GA/northern FL with the 01z update. Weakening large-scale ascent, poor low-level convergence, and a cooling/stabilizing boundary layer post-sunset will suppress severe thunderstorm potential the remainder of the evening. However, sufficient elevated instability may support isolated non-severe thunderstorm near the southward sagging surface front for a few more hours. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low through tonight. ...Southeast GA/North FL... Severe probabilities have been removed from southeast GA/northern FL with the 01z update. Weakening large-scale ascent, poor low-level convergence, and a cooling/stabilizing boundary layer post-sunset will suppress severe thunderstorm potential the remainder of the evening. However, sufficient elevated instability may support isolated non-severe thunderstorm near the southward sagging surface front for a few more hours. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low through tonight. ...Southeast GA/North FL... Severe probabilities have been removed from southeast GA/northern FL with the 01z update. Weakening large-scale ascent, poor low-level convergence, and a cooling/stabilizing boundary layer post-sunset will suppress severe thunderstorm potential the remainder of the evening. However, sufficient elevated instability may support isolated non-severe thunderstorm near the southward sagging surface front for a few more hours. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low through tonight. ...Southeast GA/North FL... Severe probabilities have been removed from southeast GA/northern FL with the 01z update. Weakening large-scale ascent, poor low-level convergence, and a cooling/stabilizing boundary layer post-sunset will suppress severe thunderstorm potential the remainder of the evening. However, sufficient elevated instability may support isolated non-severe thunderstorm near the southward sagging surface front for a few more hours. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2024 Read more