Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day, with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs, in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface conditions should persist. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 23 20:30:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. As mentioned in recently issued MCD 506, a supercell or two should develop across a portion of western North Texas through late afternoon, with large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter and localized severe gusts of 60-70 mph possible. An isolated storm or two is also possible farther south in the Texas Trans Pecos vicinity. Marginally severe hail (i.e. around 1" in diameter) and damaging gusts are possible here as well. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated from northern IL into Lower MI ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible with small to marginally severe hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards (as mentioned in recently issued MCD 507). ...Early tomorrow morning from TX Panhandle into north-central/central OK... Elevated thunderstorms may develop from the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of the returning low-level moisture. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear could support an isolated instance or two of hail with initial development. However, severe coverage is currently expected to remain less than 5%, precluding the introduction of any outlook areas. ..Mosier.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough accompanied by strong southwesterly flow aloft will impinge on the Southwest, where dry antecedent conditions will be in place. This will promote a fairly expansive area of dry/breezy conditions across the region; however, fuels are generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will temper fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more