Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening from the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin. ...20Z Update... ...TX South Plains into Permian Basin... Forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. Isolated thunderstorms still appear possible within the destabilizing air mass from the TX South Plains into the Permian Basin. Moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 2000 to 2500 J/kg) and vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40-50 kt) support the potential for supercells within any sustained/mature convection. Primary risk with any supercells would be large to very large hail up to 2.5" in diameter and strong gusts up 70 mph. Tornado risk still appears low, although non-zero given the increasing low-level moisture and shear expected this evening. ...OK into Central/Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight from central OK into central and eastern KS as warm-air advection increases throughout the warm sector. A few stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail around 1" in diameter are possible through Thursday morning. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...West central TX this evening... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a midlevel low/shortwave trough west of the southern CA/Baja California coasts and it will move into the lower CO Valley by tomorrow morning. A mid-level ridge situated over the southern Rockies will gradually move east over the southern High Plains today. A lee trough will become more pronounced throughout the day and act to maintain southerly low-level flow across much of TX south of a warm front. The warm front initially analyzed this morning near the Red River will slowly move northward. Late morning surface observations over the Permian Basin/Concho Valley indicate low to mid 60s dewpoints. The 12z MAF raob showed a 7.9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate, indicative of an elevated mixed layer. Weak forcing for ascent at best is expected beneath the mid-level shortwave ridge, thereby limiting potential storm coverage. Despite the associated forcing/capping concerns, convective inhibition will erode considerably by 21-00z. Uncertainty remains regarding storm development, but additional heating this afternoon --perhaps delayed a bit due to considerable low cloud cover-- will result in moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Relatively weak but veering winds in the low levels beneath 65-kt westerly 250-mb flow will support a conditional threat for supercells. Deeper mixing over the Permian Basin may be enough to overcome and lead to a couple of storms by late afternoon/early evening along the dryline. Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. There will be an increase in low-level shear this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms weaken. ...OK into KS through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms near the OK/KS border late this morning are likely the result of low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb. Some of this convection could persist this afternoon but it is uncertain whether intensification will occur with this activity and whether a marginal hail threat develops. The more probable risk for elevated storms will occur tonight coincident with strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening from the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin. ...20Z Update... ...TX South Plains into Permian Basin... Forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. Isolated thunderstorms still appear possible within the destabilizing air mass from the TX South Plains into the Permian Basin. Moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 2000 to 2500 J/kg) and vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40-50 kt) support the potential for supercells within any sustained/mature convection. Primary risk with any supercells would be large to very large hail up to 2.5" in diameter and strong gusts up 70 mph. Tornado risk still appears low, although non-zero given the increasing low-level moisture and shear expected this evening. ...OK into Central/Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight from central OK into central and eastern KS as warm-air advection increases throughout the warm sector. A few stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail around 1" in diameter are possible through Thursday morning. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...West central TX this evening... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a midlevel low/shortwave trough west of the southern CA/Baja California coasts and it will move into the lower CO Valley by tomorrow morning. A mid-level ridge situated over the southern Rockies will gradually move east over the southern High Plains today. A lee trough will become more pronounced throughout the day and act to maintain southerly low-level flow across much of TX south of a warm front. The warm front initially analyzed this morning near the Red River will slowly move northward. Late morning surface observations over the Permian Basin/Concho Valley indicate low to mid 60s dewpoints. The 12z MAF raob showed a 7.9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate, indicative of an elevated mixed layer. Weak forcing for ascent at best is expected beneath the mid-level shortwave ridge, thereby limiting potential storm coverage. Despite the associated forcing/capping concerns, convective inhibition will erode considerably by 21-00z. Uncertainty remains regarding storm development, but additional heating this afternoon --perhaps delayed a bit due to considerable low cloud cover-- will result in moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Relatively weak but veering winds in the low levels beneath 65-kt westerly 250-mb flow will support a conditional threat for supercells. Deeper mixing over the Permian Basin may be enough to overcome and lead to a couple of storms by late afternoon/early evening along the dryline. Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. There will be an increase in low-level shear this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms weaken. ...OK into KS through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms near the OK/KS border late this morning are likely the result of low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb. Some of this convection could persist this afternoon but it is uncertain whether intensification will occur with this activity and whether a marginal hail threat develops. The more probable risk for elevated storms will occur tonight coincident with strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR WESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest guidance consensus continues to show Critical to Extremely Critical meteorological surface conditions developing within a post-dryline environment tomorrow (Thursday afternoon). Behind the dryline, RH may drop below 10 percent in some spots amid widespread 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) for several hours, especially in central to eastern New Mexico. Fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, though ERCs still appear to be below (and in some places, well below) the 90th percentile, precluding the addition of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR WESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest guidance consensus continues to show Critical to Extremely Critical meteorological surface conditions developing within a post-dryline environment tomorrow (Thursday afternoon). Behind the dryline, RH may drop below 10 percent in some spots amid widespread 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) for several hours, especially in central to eastern New Mexico. Fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, though ERCs still appear to be below (and in some places, well below) the 90th percentile, precluding the addition of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR WESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest guidance consensus continues to show Critical to Extremely Critical meteorological surface conditions developing within a post-dryline environment tomorrow (Thursday afternoon). Behind the dryline, RH may drop below 10 percent in some spots amid widespread 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) for several hours, especially in central to eastern New Mexico. Fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, though ERCs still appear to be below (and in some places, well below) the 90th percentile, precluding the addition of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR WESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest guidance consensus continues to show Critical to Extremely Critical meteorological surface conditions developing within a post-dryline environment tomorrow (Thursday afternoon). Behind the dryline, RH may drop below 10 percent in some spots amid widespread 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) for several hours, especially in central to eastern New Mexico. Fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, though ERCs still appear to be below (and in some places, well below) the 90th percentile, precluding the addition of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR WESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest guidance consensus continues to show Critical to Extremely Critical meteorological surface conditions developing within a post-dryline environment tomorrow (Thursday afternoon). Behind the dryline, RH may drop below 10 percent in some spots amid widespread 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) for several hours, especially in central to eastern New Mexico. Fuels are at least modestly receptive to fire spread, though ERCs still appear to be below (and in some places, well below) the 90th percentile, precluding the addition of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the day extended from central NV into far northwest Mexico before then quickly moving eastward across the Southwest and into the southern/central High Plains, becoming increasingly negatively tilted with time. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central and southern Plains ahead of the parent shortwave. At the surface, cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough across the central High Plains, with the resulting low then gradually moving northeastward from eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE late Thursday night/early Friday morning. A sharpening dryline will extend southward from this low throughout most of the period. A warm front will extend east-southeastward from this low as well, extending into northeast OK Thursday morning. This warm front is forecast to move northward throughout the day, moving through much of KS by early Friday morning. A moist and buoyant warm sector will exist south of this front, and strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated the shortwave interacts with it. ...Southern/Central Plains... Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from north-central/eastern KS into western MO and northeastern OK, supported by strong warm-air advection across the warm front. Given that at least moderately low-level southerly flow is expected to persist throughout the period, expectation is that this activity will persist as well, while perhaps gradually shifting southeastward with time. Overall buoyancy and vertical shear will be modest, but a few stronger cores capable isolated hail are possible. Overall evolution of this early morning activity could lead to either a sharpening of the warm front from the central KS vicinity southeastward through northeast OK into western AR or potentially southward/southwestward slow-moving outflow boundary. This sharp boundary is expected to limit to eastern/northeastern extent of the greater severe potential. Farther west, persistent moisture advection is anticipated amid moderate low-level southerly flow ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This is expected to result in mid 60s dewpoints by the mid-afternoon across much of the eastern TX/OK Panhandle and OK, with low 60s dewpoints reaching into south-central KS. Mid 60s dewpoints are expected into western and south-central KS by early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates will exist a top this low-level moisture, supporting moderate to strong buoyancy, with the strengthening mid-level flow supporting robust deep-layer vertical shear as well. Some capping is anticipated along the dryline, but the combination of strong diurnal heating (in the wake of morning clouds), increasing large-scale ascent, and low-level convergence is expected to result in convective initiation during the late afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm coverage appears probable, with storms quickly becoming severe after initiation. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat with the initial development. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent. As such any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat, particularly across west-central/southwest KS where surface flow will be backed given closer proximity of the surface low. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated farther south Thursday night as the Pacific front surges eastward. Highest storm coverage currently appears most likely from southwest OK into northwest TX. Initial development could produce large to very large hail before then transitioning to a more linear mode. Some downstream severe threat into north-central TX and south-central/central OK appears likely, although uncertainty remains regarding overall intensity, largely as a result of low-level nocturnal stability. However, kinematic fields are quite strong and could maintain organized storm structures capable of all severe hazards eastward into north-central TX and south-central/central OK. This area will be assessed for increased severe probabilities in later outlooks. ...Central High Plains into Nebraska... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop from northeast CO/NE Panhandle northeastward into NE Thursday night as large-scale ascent spreads across the region. Most of this activity will be elevated, but the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear suggests large hail is possible with these storms, with perhaps even some very large hail (i.e. 2 to 2.5" in diameter) in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity where surface-based parcels are possible. ...Eastern WY into Southwest SD... Moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area than areas farther south, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the day extended from central NV into far northwest Mexico before then quickly moving eastward across the Southwest and into the southern/central High Plains, becoming increasingly negatively tilted with time. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central and southern Plains ahead of the parent shortwave. At the surface, cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough across the central High Plains, with the resulting low then gradually moving northeastward from eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE late Thursday night/early Friday morning. A sharpening dryline will extend southward from this low throughout most of the period. A warm front will extend east-southeastward from this low as well, extending into northeast OK Thursday morning. This warm front is forecast to move northward throughout the day, moving through much of KS by early Friday morning. A moist and buoyant warm sector will exist south of this front, and strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated the shortwave interacts with it. ...Southern/Central Plains... Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from north-central/eastern KS into western MO and northeastern OK, supported by strong warm-air advection across the warm front. Given that at least moderately low-level southerly flow is expected to persist throughout the period, expectation is that this activity will persist as well, while perhaps gradually shifting southeastward with time. Overall buoyancy and vertical shear will be modest, but a few stronger cores capable isolated hail are possible. Overall evolution of this early morning activity could lead to either a sharpening of the warm front from the central KS vicinity southeastward through northeast OK into western AR or potentially southward/southwestward slow-moving outflow boundary. This sharp boundary is expected to limit to eastern/northeastern extent of the greater severe potential. Farther west, persistent moisture advection is anticipated amid moderate low-level southerly flow ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This is expected to result in mid 60s dewpoints by the mid-afternoon across much of the eastern TX/OK Panhandle and OK, with low 60s dewpoints reaching into south-central KS. Mid 60s dewpoints are expected into western and south-central KS by early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates will exist a top this low-level moisture, supporting moderate to strong buoyancy, with the strengthening mid-level flow supporting robust deep-layer vertical shear as well. Some capping is anticipated along the dryline, but the combination of strong diurnal heating (in the wake of morning clouds), increasing large-scale ascent, and low-level convergence is expected to result in convective initiation during the late afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm coverage appears probable, with storms quickly becoming severe after initiation. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat with the initial development. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent. As such any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat, particularly across west-central/southwest KS where surface flow will be backed given closer proximity of the surface low. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated farther south Thursday night as the Pacific front surges eastward. Highest storm coverage currently appears most likely from southwest OK into northwest TX. Initial development could produce large to very large hail before then transitioning to a more linear mode. Some downstream severe threat into north-central TX and south-central/central OK appears likely, although uncertainty remains regarding overall intensity, largely as a result of low-level nocturnal stability. However, kinematic fields are quite strong and could maintain organized storm structures capable of all severe hazards eastward into north-central TX and south-central/central OK. This area will be assessed for increased severe probabilities in later outlooks. ...Central High Plains into Nebraska... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop from northeast CO/NE Panhandle northeastward into NE Thursday night as large-scale ascent spreads across the region. Most of this activity will be elevated, but the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear suggests large hail is possible with these storms, with perhaps even some very large hail (i.e. 2 to 2.5" in diameter) in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity where surface-based parcels are possible. ...Eastern WY into Southwest SD... Moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area than areas farther south, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the day extended from central NV into far northwest Mexico before then quickly moving eastward across the Southwest and into the southern/central High Plains, becoming increasingly negatively tilted with time. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central and southern Plains ahead of the parent shortwave. At the surface, cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough across the central High Plains, with the resulting low then gradually moving northeastward from eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE late Thursday night/early Friday morning. A sharpening dryline will extend southward from this low throughout most of the period. A warm front will extend east-southeastward from this low as well, extending into northeast OK Thursday morning. This warm front is forecast to move northward throughout the day, moving through much of KS by early Friday morning. A moist and buoyant warm sector will exist south of this front, and strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated the shortwave interacts with it. ...Southern/Central Plains... Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from north-central/eastern KS into western MO and northeastern OK, supported by strong warm-air advection across the warm front. Given that at least moderately low-level southerly flow is expected to persist throughout the period, expectation is that this activity will persist as well, while perhaps gradually shifting southeastward with time. Overall buoyancy and vertical shear will be modest, but a few stronger cores capable isolated hail are possible. Overall evolution of this early morning activity could lead to either a sharpening of the warm front from the central KS vicinity southeastward through northeast OK into western AR or potentially southward/southwestward slow-moving outflow boundary. This sharp boundary is expected to limit to eastern/northeastern extent of the greater severe potential. Farther west, persistent moisture advection is anticipated amid moderate low-level southerly flow ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This is expected to result in mid 60s dewpoints by the mid-afternoon across much of the eastern TX/OK Panhandle and OK, with low 60s dewpoints reaching into south-central KS. Mid 60s dewpoints are expected into western and south-central KS by early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates will exist a top this low-level moisture, supporting moderate to strong buoyancy, with the strengthening mid-level flow supporting robust deep-layer vertical shear as well. Some capping is anticipated along the dryline, but the combination of strong diurnal heating (in the wake of morning clouds), increasing large-scale ascent, and low-level convergence is expected to result in convective initiation during the late afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm coverage appears probable, with storms quickly becoming severe after initiation. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat with the initial development. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent. As such any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat, particularly across west-central/southwest KS where surface flow will be backed given closer proximity of the surface low. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated farther south Thursday night as the Pacific front surges eastward. Highest storm coverage currently appears most likely from southwest OK into northwest TX. Initial development could produce large to very large hail before then transitioning to a more linear mode. Some downstream severe threat into north-central TX and south-central/central OK appears likely, although uncertainty remains regarding overall intensity, largely as a result of low-level nocturnal stability. However, kinematic fields are quite strong and could maintain organized storm structures capable of all severe hazards eastward into north-central TX and south-central/central OK. This area will be assessed for increased severe probabilities in later outlooks. ...Central High Plains into Nebraska... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop from northeast CO/NE Panhandle northeastward into NE Thursday night as large-scale ascent spreads across the region. Most of this activity will be elevated, but the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear suggests large hail is possible with these storms, with perhaps even some very large hail (i.e. 2 to 2.5" in diameter) in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity where surface-based parcels are possible. ...Eastern WY into Southwest SD... Moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area than areas farther south, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the day extended from central NV into far northwest Mexico before then quickly moving eastward across the Southwest and into the southern/central High Plains, becoming increasingly negatively tilted with time. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central and southern Plains ahead of the parent shortwave. At the surface, cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough across the central High Plains, with the resulting low then gradually moving northeastward from eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE late Thursday night/early Friday morning. A sharpening dryline will extend southward from this low throughout most of the period. A warm front will extend east-southeastward from this low as well, extending into northeast OK Thursday morning. This warm front is forecast to move northward throughout the day, moving through much of KS by early Friday morning. A moist and buoyant warm sector will exist south of this front, and strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated the shortwave interacts with it. ...Southern/Central Plains... Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from north-central/eastern KS into western MO and northeastern OK, supported by strong warm-air advection across the warm front. Given that at least moderately low-level southerly flow is expected to persist throughout the period, expectation is that this activity will persist as well, while perhaps gradually shifting southeastward with time. Overall buoyancy and vertical shear will be modest, but a few stronger cores capable isolated hail are possible. Overall evolution of this early morning activity could lead to either a sharpening of the warm front from the central KS vicinity southeastward through northeast OK into western AR or potentially southward/southwestward slow-moving outflow boundary. This sharp boundary is expected to limit to eastern/northeastern extent of the greater severe potential. Farther west, persistent moisture advection is anticipated amid moderate low-level southerly flow ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This is expected to result in mid 60s dewpoints by the mid-afternoon across much of the eastern TX/OK Panhandle and OK, with low 60s dewpoints reaching into south-central KS. Mid 60s dewpoints are expected into western and south-central KS by early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates will exist a top this low-level moisture, supporting moderate to strong buoyancy, with the strengthening mid-level flow supporting robust deep-layer vertical shear as well. Some capping is anticipated along the dryline, but the combination of strong diurnal heating (in the wake of morning clouds), increasing large-scale ascent, and low-level convergence is expected to result in convective initiation during the late afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm coverage appears probable, with storms quickly becoming severe after initiation. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat with the initial development. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent. As such any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat, particularly across west-central/southwest KS where surface flow will be backed given closer proximity of the surface low. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated farther south Thursday night as the Pacific front surges eastward. Highest storm coverage currently appears most likely from southwest OK into northwest TX. Initial development could produce large to very large hail before then transitioning to a more linear mode. Some downstream severe threat into north-central TX and south-central/central OK appears likely, although uncertainty remains regarding overall intensity, largely as a result of low-level nocturnal stability. However, kinematic fields are quite strong and could maintain organized storm structures capable of all severe hazards eastward into north-central TX and south-central/central OK. This area will be assessed for increased severe probabilities in later outlooks. ...Central High Plains into Nebraska... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop from northeast CO/NE Panhandle northeastward into NE Thursday night as large-scale ascent spreads across the region. Most of this activity will be elevated, but the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear suggests large hail is possible with these storms, with perhaps even some very large hail (i.e. 2 to 2.5" in diameter) in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity where surface-based parcels are possible. ...Eastern WY into Southwest SD... Moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area than areas farther south, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the day extended from central NV into far northwest Mexico before then quickly moving eastward across the Southwest and into the southern/central High Plains, becoming increasingly negatively tilted with time. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central and southern Plains ahead of the parent shortwave. At the surface, cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough across the central High Plains, with the resulting low then gradually moving northeastward from eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE late Thursday night/early Friday morning. A sharpening dryline will extend southward from this low throughout most of the period. A warm front will extend east-southeastward from this low as well, extending into northeast OK Thursday morning. This warm front is forecast to move northward throughout the day, moving through much of KS by early Friday morning. A moist and buoyant warm sector will exist south of this front, and strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated the shortwave interacts with it. ...Southern/Central Plains... Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from north-central/eastern KS into western MO and northeastern OK, supported by strong warm-air advection across the warm front. Given that at least moderately low-level southerly flow is expected to persist throughout the period, expectation is that this activity will persist as well, while perhaps gradually shifting southeastward with time. Overall buoyancy and vertical shear will be modest, but a few stronger cores capable isolated hail are possible. Overall evolution of this early morning activity could lead to either a sharpening of the warm front from the central KS vicinity southeastward through northeast OK into western AR or potentially southward/southwestward slow-moving outflow boundary. This sharp boundary is expected to limit to eastern/northeastern extent of the greater severe potential. Farther west, persistent moisture advection is anticipated amid moderate low-level southerly flow ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This is expected to result in mid 60s dewpoints by the mid-afternoon across much of the eastern TX/OK Panhandle and OK, with low 60s dewpoints reaching into south-central KS. Mid 60s dewpoints are expected into western and south-central KS by early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates will exist a top this low-level moisture, supporting moderate to strong buoyancy, with the strengthening mid-level flow supporting robust deep-layer vertical shear as well. Some capping is anticipated along the dryline, but the combination of strong diurnal heating (in the wake of morning clouds), increasing large-scale ascent, and low-level convergence is expected to result in convective initiation during the late afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm coverage appears probable, with storms quickly becoming severe after initiation. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat with the initial development. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent. As such any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat, particularly across west-central/southwest KS where surface flow will be backed given closer proximity of the surface low. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated farther south Thursday night as the Pacific front surges eastward. Highest storm coverage currently appears most likely from southwest OK into northwest TX. Initial development could produce large to very large hail before then transitioning to a more linear mode. Some downstream severe threat into north-central TX and south-central/central OK appears likely, although uncertainty remains regarding overall intensity, largely as a result of low-level nocturnal stability. However, kinematic fields are quite strong and could maintain organized storm structures capable of all severe hazards eastward into north-central TX and south-central/central OK. This area will be assessed for increased severe probabilities in later outlooks. ...Central High Plains into Nebraska... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop from northeast CO/NE Panhandle northeastward into NE Thursday night as large-scale ascent spreads across the region. Most of this activity will be elevated, but the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear suggests large hail is possible with these storms, with perhaps even some very large hail (i.e. 2 to 2.5" in diameter) in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity where surface-based parcels are possible. ...Eastern WY into Southwest SD... Moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area than areas farther south, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the day extended from central NV into far northwest Mexico before then quickly moving eastward across the Southwest and into the southern/central High Plains, becoming increasingly negatively tilted with time. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward/northeastward into the central and southern Plains ahead of the parent shortwave. At the surface, cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the shortwave trough across the central High Plains, with the resulting low then gradually moving northeastward from eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE late Thursday night/early Friday morning. A sharpening dryline will extend southward from this low throughout most of the period. A warm front will extend east-southeastward from this low as well, extending into northeast OK Thursday morning. This warm front is forecast to move northward throughout the day, moving through much of KS by early Friday morning. A moist and buoyant warm sector will exist south of this front, and strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated the shortwave interacts with it. ...Southern/Central Plains... Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from north-central/eastern KS into western MO and northeastern OK, supported by strong warm-air advection across the warm front. Given that at least moderately low-level southerly flow is expected to persist throughout the period, expectation is that this activity will persist as well, while perhaps gradually shifting southeastward with time. Overall buoyancy and vertical shear will be modest, but a few stronger cores capable isolated hail are possible. Overall evolution of this early morning activity could lead to either a sharpening of the warm front from the central KS vicinity southeastward through northeast OK into western AR or potentially southward/southwestward slow-moving outflow boundary. This sharp boundary is expected to limit to eastern/northeastern extent of the greater severe potential. Farther west, persistent moisture advection is anticipated amid moderate low-level southerly flow ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This is expected to result in mid 60s dewpoints by the mid-afternoon across much of the eastern TX/OK Panhandle and OK, with low 60s dewpoints reaching into south-central KS. Mid 60s dewpoints are expected into western and south-central KS by early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates will exist a top this low-level moisture, supporting moderate to strong buoyancy, with the strengthening mid-level flow supporting robust deep-layer vertical shear as well. Some capping is anticipated along the dryline, but the combination of strong diurnal heating (in the wake of morning clouds), increasing large-scale ascent, and low-level convergence is expected to result in convective initiation during the late afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm coverage appears probable, with storms quickly becoming severe after initiation. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat with the initial development. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent. As such any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat, particularly across west-central/southwest KS where surface flow will be backed given closer proximity of the surface low. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated farther south Thursday night as the Pacific front surges eastward. Highest storm coverage currently appears most likely from southwest OK into northwest TX. Initial development could produce large to very large hail before then transitioning to a more linear mode. Some downstream severe threat into north-central TX and south-central/central OK appears likely, although uncertainty remains regarding overall intensity, largely as a result of low-level nocturnal stability. However, kinematic fields are quite strong and could maintain organized storm structures capable of all severe hazards eastward into north-central TX and south-central/central OK. This area will be assessed for increased severe probabilities in later outlooks. ...Central High Plains into Nebraska... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop from northeast CO/NE Panhandle northeastward into NE Thursday night as large-scale ascent spreads across the region. Most of this activity will be elevated, but the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear suggests large hail is possible with these storms, with perhaps even some very large hail (i.e. 2 to 2.5" in diameter) in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity where surface-based parcels are possible. ...Eastern WY into Southwest SD... Moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area than areas farther south, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening across west-central Texas. ...West central TX this evening... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a midlevel low/shortwave trough west of the southern CA/Baja California coasts and it will move into the lower CO Valley by tomorrow morning. A mid-level ridge situated over the southern Rockies will gradually move east over the southern High Plains today. A lee trough will become more pronounced throughout the day and act to maintain southerly low-level flow across much of TX south of a warm front. The warm front initially analyzed this morning near the Red River will slowly move northward. Late morning surface observations over the Permian Basin/Concho Valley indicate low to mid 60s dewpoints. The 12z MAF raob showed a 7.9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate, indicative of an elevated mixed layer. Weak forcing for ascent at best is expected beneath the mid-level shortwave ridge, thereby limiting potential storm coverage. Despite the associated forcing/capping concerns, convective inhibition will erode considerably by 21-00z. Uncertainty remains regarding storm development, but additional heating this afternoon --perhaps delayed a bit due to considerable low cloud cover-- will result in moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Relatively weak but veering winds in the low levels beneath 65-kt westerly 250-mb flow will support a conditional threat for supercells. Deeper mixing over the Permian Basin may be enough to overcome and lead to a couple of storms by late afternoon/early evening along the dryline. Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. There will be an increase in low-level shear this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms weaken. ...OK into KS through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms near the OK/KS border late this morning are likely the result of low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb. Some of this convection could persist this afternoon but it is uncertain whether intensification will occur with this activity and whether a marginal hail threat develops. The more probable risk for elevated storms will occur tonight coincident with strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening across west-central Texas. ...West central TX this evening... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a midlevel low/shortwave trough west of the southern CA/Baja California coasts and it will move into the lower CO Valley by tomorrow morning. A mid-level ridge situated over the southern Rockies will gradually move east over the southern High Plains today. A lee trough will become more pronounced throughout the day and act to maintain southerly low-level flow across much of TX south of a warm front. The warm front initially analyzed this morning near the Red River will slowly move northward. Late morning surface observations over the Permian Basin/Concho Valley indicate low to mid 60s dewpoints. The 12z MAF raob showed a 7.9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate, indicative of an elevated mixed layer. Weak forcing for ascent at best is expected beneath the mid-level shortwave ridge, thereby limiting potential storm coverage. Despite the associated forcing/capping concerns, convective inhibition will erode considerably by 21-00z. Uncertainty remains regarding storm development, but additional heating this afternoon --perhaps delayed a bit due to considerable low cloud cover-- will result in moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Relatively weak but veering winds in the low levels beneath 65-kt westerly 250-mb flow will support a conditional threat for supercells. Deeper mixing over the Permian Basin may be enough to overcome and lead to a couple of storms by late afternoon/early evening along the dryline. Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. There will be an increase in low-level shear this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms weaken. ...OK into KS through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms near the OK/KS border late this morning are likely the result of low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb. Some of this convection could persist this afternoon but it is uncertain whether intensification will occur with this activity and whether a marginal hail threat develops. The more probable risk for elevated storms will occur tonight coincident with strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening across west-central Texas. ...West central TX this evening... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a midlevel low/shortwave trough west of the southern CA/Baja California coasts and it will move into the lower CO Valley by tomorrow morning. A mid-level ridge situated over the southern Rockies will gradually move east over the southern High Plains today. A lee trough will become more pronounced throughout the day and act to maintain southerly low-level flow across much of TX south of a warm front. The warm front initially analyzed this morning near the Red River will slowly move northward. Late morning surface observations over the Permian Basin/Concho Valley indicate low to mid 60s dewpoints. The 12z MAF raob showed a 7.9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate, indicative of an elevated mixed layer. Weak forcing for ascent at best is expected beneath the mid-level shortwave ridge, thereby limiting potential storm coverage. Despite the associated forcing/capping concerns, convective inhibition will erode considerably by 21-00z. Uncertainty remains regarding storm development, but additional heating this afternoon --perhaps delayed a bit due to considerable low cloud cover-- will result in moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Relatively weak but veering winds in the low levels beneath 65-kt westerly 250-mb flow will support a conditional threat for supercells. Deeper mixing over the Permian Basin may be enough to overcome and lead to a couple of storms by late afternoon/early evening along the dryline. Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. There will be an increase in low-level shear this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms weaken. ...OK into KS through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms near the OK/KS border late this morning are likely the result of low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb. Some of this convection could persist this afternoon but it is uncertain whether intensification will occur with this activity and whether a marginal hail threat develops. The more probable risk for elevated storms will occur tonight coincident with strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening across west-central Texas. ...West central TX this evening... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a midlevel low/shortwave trough west of the southern CA/Baja California coasts and it will move into the lower CO Valley by tomorrow morning. A mid-level ridge situated over the southern Rockies will gradually move east over the southern High Plains today. A lee trough will become more pronounced throughout the day and act to maintain southerly low-level flow across much of TX south of a warm front. The warm front initially analyzed this morning near the Red River will slowly move northward. Late morning surface observations over the Permian Basin/Concho Valley indicate low to mid 60s dewpoints. The 12z MAF raob showed a 7.9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate, indicative of an elevated mixed layer. Weak forcing for ascent at best is expected beneath the mid-level shortwave ridge, thereby limiting potential storm coverage. Despite the associated forcing/capping concerns, convective inhibition will erode considerably by 21-00z. Uncertainty remains regarding storm development, but additional heating this afternoon --perhaps delayed a bit due to considerable low cloud cover-- will result in moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Relatively weak but veering winds in the low levels beneath 65-kt westerly 250-mb flow will support a conditional threat for supercells. Deeper mixing over the Permian Basin may be enough to overcome and lead to a couple of storms by late afternoon/early evening along the dryline. Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. There will be an increase in low-level shear this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms weaken. ...OK into KS through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms near the OK/KS border late this morning are likely the result of low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb. Some of this convection could persist this afternoon but it is uncertain whether intensification will occur with this activity and whether a marginal hail threat develops. The more probable risk for elevated storms will occur tonight coincident with strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening across west-central Texas. ...West central TX this evening... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a midlevel low/shortwave trough west of the southern CA/Baja California coasts and it will move into the lower CO Valley by tomorrow morning. A mid-level ridge situated over the southern Rockies will gradually move east over the southern High Plains today. A lee trough will become more pronounced throughout the day and act to maintain southerly low-level flow across much of TX south of a warm front. The warm front initially analyzed this morning near the Red River will slowly move northward. Late morning surface observations over the Permian Basin/Concho Valley indicate low to mid 60s dewpoints. The 12z MAF raob showed a 7.9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate, indicative of an elevated mixed layer. Weak forcing for ascent at best is expected beneath the mid-level shortwave ridge, thereby limiting potential storm coverage. Despite the associated forcing/capping concerns, convective inhibition will erode considerably by 21-00z. Uncertainty remains regarding storm development, but additional heating this afternoon --perhaps delayed a bit due to considerable low cloud cover-- will result in moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Relatively weak but veering winds in the low levels beneath 65-kt westerly 250-mb flow will support a conditional threat for supercells. Deeper mixing over the Permian Basin may be enough to overcome and lead to a couple of storms by late afternoon/early evening along the dryline. Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. There will be an increase in low-level shear this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms weaken. ...OK into KS through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms near the OK/KS border late this morning are likely the result of low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb. Some of this convection could persist this afternoon but it is uncertain whether intensification will occur with this activity and whether a marginal hail threat develops. The more probable risk for elevated storms will occur tonight coincident with strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening across west-central Texas. ...West central TX this evening... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a midlevel low/shortwave trough west of the southern CA/Baja California coasts and it will move into the lower CO Valley by tomorrow morning. A mid-level ridge situated over the southern Rockies will gradually move east over the southern High Plains today. A lee trough will become more pronounced throughout the day and act to maintain southerly low-level flow across much of TX south of a warm front. The warm front initially analyzed this morning near the Red River will slowly move northward. Late morning surface observations over the Permian Basin/Concho Valley indicate low to mid 60s dewpoints. The 12z MAF raob showed a 7.9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate, indicative of an elevated mixed layer. Weak forcing for ascent at best is expected beneath the mid-level shortwave ridge, thereby limiting potential storm coverage. Despite the associated forcing/capping concerns, convective inhibition will erode considerably by 21-00z. Uncertainty remains regarding storm development, but additional heating this afternoon --perhaps delayed a bit due to considerable low cloud cover-- will result in moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Relatively weak but veering winds in the low levels beneath 65-kt westerly 250-mb flow will support a conditional threat for supercells. Deeper mixing over the Permian Basin may be enough to overcome and lead to a couple of storms by late afternoon/early evening along the dryline. Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. There will be an increase in low-level shear this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms weaken. ...OK into KS through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms near the OK/KS border late this morning are likely the result of low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb. Some of this convection could persist this afternoon but it is uncertain whether intensification will occur with this activity and whether a marginal hail threat develops. The more probable risk for elevated storms will occur tonight coincident with strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by strong southwesterly flow aloft, will move into the Southwest today. As this strong flow overspreads a deep/dry boundary layer across the region, dry/breezy conditions can be expected during the afternoon. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, fuels generally do not support large-fire spread at this time -- precluding highlights across the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more