Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...01z Update... Extensive mid-high cloudiness appears to be partly responsible for the lack of deep boundary-layer cu across the TX South Plains into the Permian Basin early this evening. While surface temperatures warmed into the mid 80s across the Permian Basin, weak inhibition persists across this region. 00z sounding from MAF supports this, with a warm layer at 700mb serving as a cap for surface-based parcels. While several HREF members suggested deep convection would have developed by early evening, there is some concern that deep convection may remain quite isolated, if it does develop at this latitude. As LLJ strengthens across the High Plains tonight there should be an increase in elevated convection farther north across portions of OK/KS. Storms that develop due to warm advection could generate marginally severe hail. Will maintain low severe probabilities to account for these scenarios. ..Darrow.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...01z Update... Extensive mid-high cloudiness appears to be partly responsible for the lack of deep boundary-layer cu across the TX South Plains into the Permian Basin early this evening. While surface temperatures warmed into the mid 80s across the Permian Basin, weak inhibition persists across this region. 00z sounding from MAF supports this, with a warm layer at 700mb serving as a cap for surface-based parcels. While several HREF members suggested deep convection would have developed by early evening, there is some concern that deep convection may remain quite isolated, if it does develop at this latitude. As LLJ strengthens across the High Plains tonight there should be an increase in elevated convection farther north across portions of OK/KS. Storms that develop due to warm advection could generate marginally severe hail. Will maintain low severe probabilities to account for these scenarios. ..Darrow.. 04/25/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 24 23:09:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 24 23:09:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A pair of mid-level troughs will traverse the southern Plains Friday into this weekend, supporting surface cyclone development and a trailing dryline surging eastward across the southern High Plains each day. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected, with 70 percent Critical probabilities maintained for portions of the southern High Plains where dry and windy conditions will overlap through much of the afternoon for both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, the second mid-level trough will eject into the middle Mississippi Valley region, prompting some weakening of the surface winds behind the dryline over the southern High Plains, where only 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Thereafter, upper-level ridging will set in over the Plains states, with dry conditions persisting over the southern High Plains. Another mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West by the middle of next week. Dry and windy conditions should overspread the region, though questions remain regarding fuel receptiveness, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A pair of mid-level troughs will traverse the southern Plains Friday into this weekend, supporting surface cyclone development and a trailing dryline surging eastward across the southern High Plains each day. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected, with 70 percent Critical probabilities maintained for portions of the southern High Plains where dry and windy conditions will overlap through much of the afternoon for both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, the second mid-level trough will eject into the middle Mississippi Valley region, prompting some weakening of the surface winds behind the dryline over the southern High Plains, where only 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Thereafter, upper-level ridging will set in over the Plains states, with dry conditions persisting over the southern High Plains. Another mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West by the middle of next week. Dry and windy conditions should overspread the region, though questions remain regarding fuel receptiveness, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A pair of mid-level troughs will traverse the southern Plains Friday into this weekend, supporting surface cyclone development and a trailing dryline surging eastward across the southern High Plains each day. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected, with 70 percent Critical probabilities maintained for portions of the southern High Plains where dry and windy conditions will overlap through much of the afternoon for both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, the second mid-level trough will eject into the middle Mississippi Valley region, prompting some weakening of the surface winds behind the dryline over the southern High Plains, where only 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Thereafter, upper-level ridging will set in over the Plains states, with dry conditions persisting over the southern High Plains. Another mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West by the middle of next week. Dry and windy conditions should overspread the region, though questions remain regarding fuel receptiveness, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A pair of mid-level troughs will traverse the southern Plains Friday into this weekend, supporting surface cyclone development and a trailing dryline surging eastward across the southern High Plains each day. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected, with 70 percent Critical probabilities maintained for portions of the southern High Plains where dry and windy conditions will overlap through much of the afternoon for both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, the second mid-level trough will eject into the middle Mississippi Valley region, prompting some weakening of the surface winds behind the dryline over the southern High Plains, where only 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Thereafter, upper-level ridging will set in over the Plains states, with dry conditions persisting over the southern High Plains. Another mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West by the middle of next week. Dry and windy conditions should overspread the region, though questions remain regarding fuel receptiveness, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A pair of mid-level troughs will traverse the southern Plains Friday into this weekend, supporting surface cyclone development and a trailing dryline surging eastward across the southern High Plains each day. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected, with 70 percent Critical probabilities maintained for portions of the southern High Plains where dry and windy conditions will overlap through much of the afternoon for both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, the second mid-level trough will eject into the middle Mississippi Valley region, prompting some weakening of the surface winds behind the dryline over the southern High Plains, where only 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Thereafter, upper-level ridging will set in over the Plains states, with dry conditions persisting over the southern High Plains. Another mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West by the middle of next week. Dry and windy conditions should overspread the region, though questions remain regarding fuel receptiveness, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A pair of mid-level troughs will traverse the southern Plains Friday into this weekend, supporting surface cyclone development and a trailing dryline surging eastward across the southern High Plains each day. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected, with 70 percent Critical probabilities maintained for portions of the southern High Plains where dry and windy conditions will overlap through much of the afternoon for both Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, the second mid-level trough will eject into the middle Mississippi Valley region, prompting some weakening of the surface winds behind the dryline over the southern High Plains, where only 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Thereafter, upper-level ridging will set in over the Plains states, with dry conditions persisting over the southern High Plains. Another mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West by the middle of next week. Dry and windy conditions should overspread the region, though questions remain regarding fuel receptiveness, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening from the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin. ...20Z Update... ...TX South Plains into Permian Basin... Forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. Isolated thunderstorms still appear possible within the destabilizing air mass from the TX South Plains into the Permian Basin. Moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 2000 to 2500 J/kg) and vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40-50 kt) support the potential for supercells within any sustained/mature convection. Primary risk with any supercells would be large to very large hail up to 2.5" in diameter and strong gusts up 70 mph. Tornado risk still appears low, although non-zero given the increasing low-level moisture and shear expected this evening. ...OK into Central/Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight from central OK into central and eastern KS as warm-air advection increases throughout the warm sector. A few stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail around 1" in diameter are possible through Thursday morning. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...West central TX this evening... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a midlevel low/shortwave trough west of the southern CA/Baja California coasts and it will move into the lower CO Valley by tomorrow morning. A mid-level ridge situated over the southern Rockies will gradually move east over the southern High Plains today. A lee trough will become more pronounced throughout the day and act to maintain southerly low-level flow across much of TX south of a warm front. The warm front initially analyzed this morning near the Red River will slowly move northward. Late morning surface observations over the Permian Basin/Concho Valley indicate low to mid 60s dewpoints. The 12z MAF raob showed a 7.9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate, indicative of an elevated mixed layer. Weak forcing for ascent at best is expected beneath the mid-level shortwave ridge, thereby limiting potential storm coverage. Despite the associated forcing/capping concerns, convective inhibition will erode considerably by 21-00z. Uncertainty remains regarding storm development, but additional heating this afternoon --perhaps delayed a bit due to considerable low cloud cover-- will result in moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Relatively weak but veering winds in the low levels beneath 65-kt westerly 250-mb flow will support a conditional threat for supercells. Deeper mixing over the Permian Basin may be enough to overcome and lead to a couple of storms by late afternoon/early evening along the dryline. Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. There will be an increase in low-level shear this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms weaken. ...OK into KS through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms near the OK/KS border late this morning are likely the result of low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb. Some of this convection could persist this afternoon but it is uncertain whether intensification will occur with this activity and whether a marginal hail threat develops. The more probable risk for elevated storms will occur tonight coincident with strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening from the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin. ...20Z Update... ...TX South Plains into Permian Basin... Forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. Isolated thunderstorms still appear possible within the destabilizing air mass from the TX South Plains into the Permian Basin. Moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 2000 to 2500 J/kg) and vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40-50 kt) support the potential for supercells within any sustained/mature convection. Primary risk with any supercells would be large to very large hail up to 2.5" in diameter and strong gusts up 70 mph. Tornado risk still appears low, although non-zero given the increasing low-level moisture and shear expected this evening. ...OK into Central/Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight from central OK into central and eastern KS as warm-air advection increases throughout the warm sector. A few stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail around 1" in diameter are possible through Thursday morning. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...West central TX this evening... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a midlevel low/shortwave trough west of the southern CA/Baja California coasts and it will move into the lower CO Valley by tomorrow morning. A mid-level ridge situated over the southern Rockies will gradually move east over the southern High Plains today. A lee trough will become more pronounced throughout the day and act to maintain southerly low-level flow across much of TX south of a warm front. The warm front initially analyzed this morning near the Red River will slowly move northward. Late morning surface observations over the Permian Basin/Concho Valley indicate low to mid 60s dewpoints. The 12z MAF raob showed a 7.9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate, indicative of an elevated mixed layer. Weak forcing for ascent at best is expected beneath the mid-level shortwave ridge, thereby limiting potential storm coverage. Despite the associated forcing/capping concerns, convective inhibition will erode considerably by 21-00z. Uncertainty remains regarding storm development, but additional heating this afternoon --perhaps delayed a bit due to considerable low cloud cover-- will result in moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Relatively weak but veering winds in the low levels beneath 65-kt westerly 250-mb flow will support a conditional threat for supercells. Deeper mixing over the Permian Basin may be enough to overcome and lead to a couple of storms by late afternoon/early evening along the dryline. Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. There will be an increase in low-level shear this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms weaken. ...OK into KS through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms near the OK/KS border late this morning are likely the result of low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb. Some of this convection could persist this afternoon but it is uncertain whether intensification will occur with this activity and whether a marginal hail threat develops. The more probable risk for elevated storms will occur tonight coincident with strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening from the Texas South Plains into the Permian Basin. ...20Z Update... ...TX South Plains into Permian Basin... Forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid. Isolated thunderstorms still appear possible within the destabilizing air mass from the TX South Plains into the Permian Basin. Moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 2000 to 2500 J/kg) and vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40-50 kt) support the potential for supercells within any sustained/mature convection. Primary risk with any supercells would be large to very large hail up to 2.5" in diameter and strong gusts up 70 mph. Tornado risk still appears low, although non-zero given the increasing low-level moisture and shear expected this evening. ...OK into Central/Eastern KS... Thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight from central OK into central and eastern KS as warm-air advection increases throughout the warm sector. A few stronger storms capable of marginally severe hail around 1" in diameter are possible through Thursday morning. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024/ ...West central TX this evening... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a midlevel low/shortwave trough west of the southern CA/Baja California coasts and it will move into the lower CO Valley by tomorrow morning. A mid-level ridge situated over the southern Rockies will gradually move east over the southern High Plains today. A lee trough will become more pronounced throughout the day and act to maintain southerly low-level flow across much of TX south of a warm front. The warm front initially analyzed this morning near the Red River will slowly move northward. Late morning surface observations over the Permian Basin/Concho Valley indicate low to mid 60s dewpoints. The 12z MAF raob showed a 7.9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate, indicative of an elevated mixed layer. Weak forcing for ascent at best is expected beneath the mid-level shortwave ridge, thereby limiting potential storm coverage. Despite the associated forcing/capping concerns, convective inhibition will erode considerably by 21-00z. Uncertainty remains regarding storm development, but additional heating this afternoon --perhaps delayed a bit due to considerable low cloud cover-- will result in moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Relatively weak but veering winds in the low levels beneath 65-kt westerly 250-mb flow will support a conditional threat for supercells. Deeper mixing over the Permian Basin may be enough to overcome and lead to a couple of storms by late afternoon/early evening along the dryline. Isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph are possible. There will be an increase in low-level shear this evening and low-level moisture will be greater compared to yesterday, so an isolated tornado will also be possible in a narrow time window this evening before inhibition increases and storms weaken. ...OK into KS through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms near the OK/KS border late this morning are likely the result of low-midlevel warm advection and weak buoyancy rooted near 700 mb. Some of this convection could persist this afternoon but it is uncertain whether intensification will occur with this activity and whether a marginal hail threat develops. The more probable risk for elevated storms will occur tonight coincident with strengthening warm advection and increasing low-level moisture. Read more