Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains. This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH. As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains. This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH. As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains. This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH. As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly dry fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 25 17:36:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA. Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday evening. ...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and Iowa... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and developing warm sector. Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA. ...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes persisting. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing upper trough to the north, additional development along the dryline across this region should remain very isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and a tornado. ...Northwest Texas... The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest. MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning. ..Gleason.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA. Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday evening. ...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and Iowa... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and developing warm sector. Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA. ...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes persisting. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing upper trough to the north, additional development along the dryline across this region should remain very isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and a tornado. ...Northwest Texas... The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest. MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning. ..Gleason.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA. Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday evening. ...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and Iowa... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and developing warm sector. Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA. ...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes persisting. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing upper trough to the north, additional development along the dryline across this region should remain very isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and a tornado. ...Northwest Texas... The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest. MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning. ..Gleason.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA. Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday evening. ...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and Iowa... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and developing warm sector. Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA. ...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes persisting. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing upper trough to the north, additional development along the dryline across this region should remain very isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and a tornado. ...Northwest Texas... The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest. MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning. ..Gleason.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA. Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday evening. ...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and Iowa... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and developing warm sector. Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA. ...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes persisting. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing upper trough to the north, additional development along the dryline across this region should remain very isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and a tornado. ...Northwest Texas... The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest. MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning. ..Gleason.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA. Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday evening. ...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and Iowa... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and developing warm sector. Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA. ...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes persisting. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing upper trough to the north, additional development along the dryline across this region should remain very isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and a tornado. ...Northwest Texas... The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest. MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning. ..Gleason.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA. Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday evening. ...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and Iowa... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and developing warm sector. Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA. ...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes persisting. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing upper trough to the north, additional development along the dryline across this region should remain very isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and a tornado. ...Northwest Texas... The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest. MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning. ..Gleason.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA. Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday evening. ...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and Iowa... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and developing warm sector. Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA. ...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes persisting. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing upper trough to the north, additional development along the dryline across this region should remain very isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and a tornado. ...Northwest Texas... The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest. MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning. ..Gleason.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA. Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday evening. ...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and Iowa... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and developing warm sector. Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA. ...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes persisting. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing upper trough to the north, additional development along the dryline across this region should remain very isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and a tornado. ...Northwest Texas... The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest. MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning. ..Gleason.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely on Friday from parts of eastern Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and Iowa, and continuing southward into parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. Tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough over the central Plains Friday morning will continue to eject northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the period. A 50-70 kt mid-level jet will accompany this upper trough, and aid in strong deep-layer shear needed for thunderstorm organization. A broad southerly low-level jet will be in place from parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks northward to IA. Low-level moisture will stream northward from the central Plains into the parts of the Upper Midwest in response, ahead of a deep surface low developing northeastward across NE/SD through Friday evening. ...Eastern Nebraska/Northeast Kansas into Northwest Missouri and Iowa... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Friday morning across this region, associated with persistent lift and the southerly low-level jet. Most of this activity should tend to remain sub-severe, but isolated hail and gusty winds could occur. In the wake of this morning convection, a narrow zone of moderate instability will likely develop across parts of eastern NE/KS ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Better forcing aloft/mid-level height falls associated with the upper trough should remain on the northern extent of the low-level moisture return and developing warm sector. Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favor supercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/central IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these tornadoes could be strong. The surface warm front draped across northern/central IA will serve as the northern limit for an appreciable tornado threat, although some supercells could continue to pose a threat for large hail even if they become slightly elevated to the north of the warm front. Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and large hail has been adjusted a little northward across eastern NE into IA. ...Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... Initially strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK/KS and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through Friday morning. This activity should pose at least an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat before it eventually weakens. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis, especially across parts of southern MO into AR. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection into the mid MS Valley/Mid-South, with an isolated threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes persisting. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing upper trough to the north, additional development along the dryline across this region should remain very isolated/conditional. Even so, any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and a tornado. ...Northwest Texas... The dryline will retreat westward across parts of west/northwest TX late Friday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form prior to the end of the period into parts of northwest TX, in advance of another approaching upper trough over the Southwest. MUCAPE and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for organized convection, and isolated large hail may occur with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop early Saturday morning. ..Gleason.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KS AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado or two will be possible this evening across western Kansas. Large hail, damaging winds to 70 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough rotating across UT/AZ, with an associated 70kt mid-level jet max moving into NM. This system will eject into the central/southern Plains this evening/tonight, resulting in multiple clusters of severe thunderstorm activity. ...Western KS... A quasi-stationary surface boundary extends from northwest CO into northwest KS. Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover across western KS this morning, with dewpoints in the low 60s to the south of the front. Strong heating will likely ensue through the afternoon, resulting in deepening mixing to the east of the dryline and eventual isolated thunderstorm development. CAM solutions differ significantly on coverage of convection, but it appears likely that at least isolated supercells will form along the dryline, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes (possibly strong). The confidence of initiation is much higher along the warm front from northeast CO into northwest KS, and forecast soundings along this corridor show strong low-level vertical shear supporting supercell structures. It is uncertain how far north these storms can remain surface-based, but there is an apparent tornado risk (possibly strong) along the immediate boundary and a large hail risk for some distance northward. This activity will likely spread into south-central NE after dark. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... As the primary upper trough ejects this evening, large-scale height falls and forcing will overspread the dryline across the OK/TX Panhandles. Forecast soundings show a persistent capping inversion along the dryline, and CAM guidance generally shows very isolated convective initiation. Any storm that forms will pose a risk of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet over west TX will likely lead to a large cluster of thunderstorm. These storms will track northeastward across northwest TX and into western/central OK in the pre-dawn hours. Large hail will be likely with these storms, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be a risk if a more organized linear MCS can evolve. ..Hart/Moore.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KS AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado or two will be possible this evening across western Kansas. Large hail, damaging winds to 70 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough rotating across UT/AZ, with an associated 70kt mid-level jet max moving into NM. This system will eject into the central/southern Plains this evening/tonight, resulting in multiple clusters of severe thunderstorm activity. ...Western KS... A quasi-stationary surface boundary extends from northwest CO into northwest KS. Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover across western KS this morning, with dewpoints in the low 60s to the south of the front. Strong heating will likely ensue through the afternoon, resulting in deepening mixing to the east of the dryline and eventual isolated thunderstorm development. CAM solutions differ significantly on coverage of convection, but it appears likely that at least isolated supercells will form along the dryline, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes (possibly strong). The confidence of initiation is much higher along the warm front from northeast CO into northwest KS, and forecast soundings along this corridor show strong low-level vertical shear supporting supercell structures. It is uncertain how far north these storms can remain surface-based, but there is an apparent tornado risk (possibly strong) along the immediate boundary and a large hail risk for some distance northward. This activity will likely spread into south-central NE after dark. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... As the primary upper trough ejects this evening, large-scale height falls and forcing will overspread the dryline across the OK/TX Panhandles. Forecast soundings show a persistent capping inversion along the dryline, and CAM guidance generally shows very isolated convective initiation. Any storm that forms will pose a risk of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet over west TX will likely lead to a large cluster of thunderstorm. These storms will track northeastward across northwest TX and into western/central OK in the pre-dawn hours. Large hail will be likely with these storms, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be a risk if a more organized linear MCS can evolve. ..Hart/Moore.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KS AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado or two will be possible this evening across western Kansas. Large hail, damaging winds to 70 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough rotating across UT/AZ, with an associated 70kt mid-level jet max moving into NM. This system will eject into the central/southern Plains this evening/tonight, resulting in multiple clusters of severe thunderstorm activity. ...Western KS... A quasi-stationary surface boundary extends from northwest CO into northwest KS. Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover across western KS this morning, with dewpoints in the low 60s to the south of the front. Strong heating will likely ensue through the afternoon, resulting in deepening mixing to the east of the dryline and eventual isolated thunderstorm development. CAM solutions differ significantly on coverage of convection, but it appears likely that at least isolated supercells will form along the dryline, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes (possibly strong). The confidence of initiation is much higher along the warm front from northeast CO into northwest KS, and forecast soundings along this corridor show strong low-level vertical shear supporting supercell structures. It is uncertain how far north these storms can remain surface-based, but there is an apparent tornado risk (possibly strong) along the immediate boundary and a large hail risk for some distance northward. This activity will likely spread into south-central NE after dark. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... As the primary upper trough ejects this evening, large-scale height falls and forcing will overspread the dryline across the OK/TX Panhandles. Forecast soundings show a persistent capping inversion along the dryline, and CAM guidance generally shows very isolated convective initiation. Any storm that forms will pose a risk of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet over west TX will likely lead to a large cluster of thunderstorm. These storms will track northeastward across northwest TX and into western/central OK in the pre-dawn hours. Large hail will be likely with these storms, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be a risk if a more organized linear MCS can evolve. ..Hart/Moore.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KS AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado or two will be possible this evening across western Kansas. Large hail, damaging winds to 70 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough rotating across UT/AZ, with an associated 70kt mid-level jet max moving into NM. This system will eject into the central/southern Plains this evening/tonight, resulting in multiple clusters of severe thunderstorm activity. ...Western KS... A quasi-stationary surface boundary extends from northwest CO into northwest KS. Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover across western KS this morning, with dewpoints in the low 60s to the south of the front. Strong heating will likely ensue through the afternoon, resulting in deepening mixing to the east of the dryline and eventual isolated thunderstorm development. CAM solutions differ significantly on coverage of convection, but it appears likely that at least isolated supercells will form along the dryline, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes (possibly strong). The confidence of initiation is much higher along the warm front from northeast CO into northwest KS, and forecast soundings along this corridor show strong low-level vertical shear supporting supercell structures. It is uncertain how far north these storms can remain surface-based, but there is an apparent tornado risk (possibly strong) along the immediate boundary and a large hail risk for some distance northward. This activity will likely spread into south-central NE after dark. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... As the primary upper trough ejects this evening, large-scale height falls and forcing will overspread the dryline across the OK/TX Panhandles. Forecast soundings show a persistent capping inversion along the dryline, and CAM guidance generally shows very isolated convective initiation. Any storm that forms will pose a risk of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet over west TX will likely lead to a large cluster of thunderstorm. These storms will track northeastward across northwest TX and into western/central OK in the pre-dawn hours. Large hail will be likely with these storms, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be a risk if a more organized linear MCS can evolve. ..Hart/Moore.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KS AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado or two will be possible this evening across western Kansas. Large hail, damaging winds to 70 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough rotating across UT/AZ, with an associated 70kt mid-level jet max moving into NM. This system will eject into the central/southern Plains this evening/tonight, resulting in multiple clusters of severe thunderstorm activity. ...Western KS... A quasi-stationary surface boundary extends from northwest CO into northwest KS. Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover across western KS this morning, with dewpoints in the low 60s to the south of the front. Strong heating will likely ensue through the afternoon, resulting in deepening mixing to the east of the dryline and eventual isolated thunderstorm development. CAM solutions differ significantly on coverage of convection, but it appears likely that at least isolated supercells will form along the dryline, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes (possibly strong). The confidence of initiation is much higher along the warm front from northeast CO into northwest KS, and forecast soundings along this corridor show strong low-level vertical shear supporting supercell structures. It is uncertain how far north these storms can remain surface-based, but there is an apparent tornado risk (possibly strong) along the immediate boundary and a large hail risk for some distance northward. This activity will likely spread into south-central NE after dark. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... As the primary upper trough ejects this evening, large-scale height falls and forcing will overspread the dryline across the OK/TX Panhandles. Forecast soundings show a persistent capping inversion along the dryline, and CAM guidance generally shows very isolated convective initiation. Any storm that forms will pose a risk of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet over west TX will likely lead to a large cluster of thunderstorm. These storms will track northeastward across northwest TX and into western/central OK in the pre-dawn hours. Large hail will be likely with these storms, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be a risk if a more organized linear MCS can evolve. ..Hart/Moore.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KS AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado or two will be possible this evening across western Kansas. Large hail, damaging winds to 70 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Morning water vapor imagery shows a negatively-tilted shortwave trough rotating across UT/AZ, with an associated 70kt mid-level jet max moving into NM. This system will eject into the central/southern Plains this evening/tonight, resulting in multiple clusters of severe thunderstorm activity. ...Western KS... A quasi-stationary surface boundary extends from northwest CO into northwest KS. Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover across western KS this morning, with dewpoints in the low 60s to the south of the front. Strong heating will likely ensue through the afternoon, resulting in deepening mixing to the east of the dryline and eventual isolated thunderstorm development. CAM solutions differ significantly on coverage of convection, but it appears likely that at least isolated supercells will form along the dryline, capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes (possibly strong). The confidence of initiation is much higher along the warm front from northeast CO into northwest KS, and forecast soundings along this corridor show strong low-level vertical shear supporting supercell structures. It is uncertain how far north these storms can remain surface-based, but there is an apparent tornado risk (possibly strong) along the immediate boundary and a large hail risk for some distance northward. This activity will likely spread into south-central NE after dark. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... As the primary upper trough ejects this evening, large-scale height falls and forcing will overspread the dryline across the OK/TX Panhandles. Forecast soundings show a persistent capping inversion along the dryline, and CAM guidance generally shows very isolated convective initiation. Any storm that forms will pose a risk of all severe hazards, including very large hail. Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet over west TX will likely lead to a large cluster of thunderstorm. These storms will track northeastward across northwest TX and into western/central OK in the pre-dawn hours. Large hail will be likely with these storms, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be a risk if a more organized linear MCS can evolve. ..Hart/Moore.. 04/25/2024 Read more