Severe Storms

WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 133 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-121-125-260340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-260340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC029-057-085-087-145-260340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 133 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-121-125-260340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-260340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC029-057-085-087-145-260340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 133 TORNADO CO KS NE 251955Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly intensify this afternoon, with a few supercell storms likely. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be possible with this activity through the evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Burlington CO to 55 miles south southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and wind damage will be possible this evening across parts of northwestern, north-central and central Kansas this evening. Very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible this evening and tonight from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... An upper-level low, evident on water-vapor imagery, is currently near the Four Corners. This exit region of an associated 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet is moving through western Kansas. At the surface, a 991 mb low is located across eastern Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the low near the Kansas-Colorado state line. A slow moving front is located across west-central and south-central Kansas. A cluster of severe thunderstorms is located near and to the north of the front across northwest Kansas. These storms will continue to move northeastward across the remainder of northwestern Kansas and into southern Nebraska this evening. Some storms are expected to develop across west-central Kansas later this evening, moving into parts of central and northern Kansas overnight. RAP forecast soundings early this evening across northwest and north-central Kansas have MUCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, effective shear near 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest tornado threat is expected to be across west-central Kansas, where forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. If a discrete supercell can re-develop across northwest or north-central Kansas later this evening, then a tornado or two would be possible. A wind-damage threat is also expected from west-central Kansas northeastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, where linear MCS development will be possible later this evening. ...Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. A associated mid-level jet is moving through west Texas, where a dryline is located. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this evening on the Caprock of west Texas, within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. These storms are expected to organize into a severe storm cluster, moving northeastward across northwest Texas and into southwest Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop further south across parts of the west-central Texas. RAP forecast soundings after midnight across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of up to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of supercells. In addition, forecast soundings have looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2, suggesting that a tornado threat will develop. Wind damage will be possible, with the threat becoming maximized if a short line segment can eventually organize. ..Broyles.. 04/26/2024 Read more