Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ..Thornton.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ..Thornton.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE BGS TO 65 ESE LBB TO 30 NE CDS. ..GOSS..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC057-065-141-260740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARMON JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-101-125-151-155-197-207-253-263-269-275-353-433-441- 447-485-487-260740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR COTTLE DICKENS FISHER FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL JONES KENT KING KNOX NOLAN STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 0520 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...south-central Nebraska into adjacent north-central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136... Valid 260506Z - 260600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk diminishing across the WW area. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows widespread, ongoing thunderstorms across much of southern and eastern Nebraska, with weaker/scattered -- but increasing -- convection across Kansas northeast of the well-defined baroclinic zone. Persistent low-level warm advection -- associated with a 50-plus kt southerly low-level jet -- will continue to support convection overnight, given abundant elevated instability. With that said, severe risk continues to decrease. The strongest storms -- organizing into a bowing MCS -- are moving across eastern Nebraska at this time, elevated atop a 1500m deep stable layer. As such, severe risk appears limited with these storms. Elsewhere, convection has weakened considerably over the past hour, and expect largely sub-severe storms to prevail the remainder of the overnight period. Presuming trends continue to support this scenario, WW 136 will likely be able to be cancelled prior to its 26/07Z expiration. ..Goss.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40250073 40720052 41359824 41309735 40279753 39929918 39660001 40250073 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Potentially widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night. The greatest threat is currently anticipated across parts of the central and southern Plains, where very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. A larger area of potential threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Southwest, resulting in a deepening cyclone across southwest KS. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across the warm sector of this cyclone, and extend northeastward along/ahead of the front into parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern Great Plains... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected on Saturday, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of central/eastern KS into central/western OK and north TX. All severe hazards will be possible, including the threat for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Evolution of the warm sector and storm development on Saturday will be complicated by the potential for early-day convection spreading northeastward from northwest TX through OK into eastern KS. This convection would likely initiate late in the D1/Friday period as low-level moisture streams westward in conjunction with a retreating dryline, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. While most guidance depicts some sort of early convection, its forecast evolution varies widely among both CAMs and parameterized convection within mesoscale and global models. Some severe threat could accompany this convection as it moves northeastward through the day. Strong low-level southerly flow will support recovery in the wake of any morning convection. Diurnal storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the dryline and also near a northward-moving warm front extending east-northeast from the deepening cyclone. For the dryline regime, supercell development will become increasingly possible by late afternoon, as MLCINH diminishes and some influence of the approaching upper trough begins to overspread the region. Moderate to strong buoyancy and strengthening deep-layer shear will support an initial threat of very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter). The tornado threat will increase into early evening, due to a notable increase in the low-level jet (and related shear/SRH) with time and eastward extent. Any persistent supercells will pose a threat of strong to potentially intense tornadoes as they move northeastward. Dryline storm initiation may be somewhat greater in coverage from west-central KS into northwest OK, in closer proximity to stronger large-scale ascent, though at least isolated development will be possible into southwest OK and northwest TX. For the warm-front regime, initial development may tend to be focused near the dryline/front intersection across north-central KS, with more isolated initiation possible northeastward along the front as capping is gradually eroded. Moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support supercell potential within this regime. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado. With time, increasing storm coverage will likely halt the northward progression of the warm front, with one or more storm clusters moving near/north of the front through the evening with a continued severe threat. Aside from the dryline and warm-frontal regimes, diurnal development across the broader warm sector will be possible within a moist and weakly capped environment, particularly from central OK into eastern KS. Evolution and coverage of diurnal warm sector development remain uncertain, but the environment will support supercell development with a threat of tornadoes and very large hail. Storm coverage will likely increase into the evening, as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough overspreads the region. Convection may tend to organized into a QLCS overnight. While magnitude of the severe threat with overnight convection remains uncertain, favorable moisture and a strong low-level jet may continue to support at least some threat for all severe hazards, both within the warm sector and eventually along a trailing cold front into parts of central/southwest TX. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO... Low-level easterly flow will maintain modest low-level moisture within the post-frontal regime from northwest KS/southwest NE into northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, with veering wind profiles supporting potential for organized convection. A supercell or two could evolve within this regime, with an attendant threat of large hail and possibly a brief tornado. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... A separate regime of at least isolated severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident along/ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into parts of the Great Lakes region. While the influence of the ejecting shortwave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes may remain mostly displaced from the warm sector, diurnal heating/destabilization and decreasing CINH may support isolated storm development by late afternoon along the cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, supporting conditional potential for supercells and/or stronger clusters capable of producing hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as the cold front moves southeastward. Eventually, convection should generally weaken overnight across this region, though a stronger cluster to two could move from eastern portions of the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley before the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more