Severe Storms

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW SPS TO 15 NW ADM TO 25 SSW CQB TO 10 WNW CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523 ..DEAN..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-049-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-125-133- 261140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE TXC077-097-181-337-261140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY COOKE GRAYSON MONTAGUE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0522 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 135... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0522 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...North-Central Texas into Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 135... Valid 260743Z - 260945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat may continue downstream of WW135. A new watch may be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection continues to move across north-central Texas along and south of the Red River. This line has produced a few severe hail and wind reports but has only maintained modest intensity over the last couple of hours. The environment ahead of this line would support continued risk for severe wind and hail, given MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, deep layer shear around 40-50 kts, and increasingly favorable moisture amid a largely uncapped profile. While the line is expected to continue eastward through the morning, some uncertainty lies in the ability for convection to become more well organized, and thus the coverage of any potential severe potential. Given the favorable airmass and shear profiles, a downstream watch is being considered. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35269823 35309736 35239717 34799702 34379694 33649686 33489701 33449731 33429799 33449888 33499939 33759971 34179996 34599983 34659973 35009913 35269823 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0137 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0137 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ABI TO 75 NW ABI TO 55 S CDS TO 10 NE LTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522 ..THORNTON..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-260840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-207-253-275-433-441-447-485-487-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL JONES KNOX STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more