Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Removed southeast Colorado from the Elevated delineation based on location of the surface front/dryline this morning and only minimal northward progression expected. Otherwise no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing mid-level low, enhanced west-southwesterly flow will continue across southern New Mexico into portions of the southern High Plains today. Given a dry air mass in place post-dryline, critical fire-weather conditions will be favored across this region during the afternoon. ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing of strong flow aloft and tight surface pressure gradients will yield sustained winds around 20-25 mph overlapping relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent across portions of southern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle and far western Texas. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry, given little to no rainfall in the past 7-14 days, to support increased fire spread potential and Critical fire weather conditions. Elevated fire weather concerns will extend as far northward as southeastern Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0525 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0525 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...central northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261433Z - 261700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form throughout the day, and some are likely to become severe with tornado and large hail potential. A watch may be needed by midday. DISCUSSION...The morning FWD sounding shows a deep moist layer early this morning, with 50 kt winds below 850 mb resulting in strong low-level shear. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast conditions over much of central TX, with scattered to broken over much of northern TX, leading to areas of heating. The very moist air mass is already aiding early development of storms between Austin and Stephenville, and indications are that this activity will gradually increase during the day beneath a persistent low-level jet. This will lead to a long duration of moist, unstable and sheared environment, with a few supercells likely within the developing cluster of warm sector storms, leading to a developing tornado risk as the activity spreads toward northeast TX. ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31109646 31039777 31339853 31749866 32329848 32719829 33129802 33729636 33949543 33859483 33749425 33609404 33349396 32859407 32099463 31799507 31109646 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERROR ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. ..Hart.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERROR ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. ..Hart.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERROR ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. ..Hart.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERROR ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. ..Hart.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERROR ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. ..Hart.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERROR ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. ..Hart.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERROR ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. ..Hart.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERROR ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. ...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region. ...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather. ...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH. ..Hart.. 04/26/2024 Read more