Severe Storms

WW 0138 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 138 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MLC TO 20 SE MLC TO 25 ENE MLC TO 25 W RKR TO 20 NW RKR TO 30 WNW FSM TO 25 NNW FSM TO 30 SSW UMN. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 138 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC077-079-127-135-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LATIMER LE FLORE PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0138 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 138 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MLC TO 20 SE MLC TO 25 ENE MLC TO 25 W RKR TO 20 NW RKR TO 30 WNW FSM TO 25 NNW FSM TO 30 SSW UMN. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 138 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC077-079-127-135-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LATIMER LE FLORE PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 138 TORNADO OK 261035Z - 261600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 138 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday morning from 535 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A squall line with embedded bowing segments/mesovortices will pose a continued threat for a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter through mid morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Tulsa OK to 35 miles east southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 137... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024 Read more

WW 0138 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 138 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MLC TO 20 NW MKO TO 20 E TUL TO 30 ESE BVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524 ..GUYER..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 138 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-021-035-041-061-077-079-091-097-101-115-121-127-131-135- 145-261340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEQUOYAH WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GYI TO 10 WNW ADM TO 40 NNE ADM TO 15 N MLC. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-069-085-095-099-123-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GYI TO 10 WNW ADM TO 40 NNE ADM TO 15 N MLC. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-069-085-095-099-123-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GYI TO 10 WNW ADM TO 40 NNE ADM TO 15 N MLC. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-069-085-095-099-123-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GYI TO 10 WNW ADM TO 40 NNE ADM TO 15 N MLC. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-069-085-095-099-123-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GYI TO 10 WNW ADM TO 40 NNE ADM TO 15 N MLC. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-069-085-095-099-123-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more